Global Markets

📍 US producer prices unchanged in July; labor market stable (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July as goods prices fell and the cost of services increased marginally, bolstering financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates unchanged next month. The report from the Labor Department on Thursday followed news on Wednesday of mild consumer inflation last month. The data led economists to also expect moderate readings in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes in July. https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-moderately-point-to-stable-labor-market-4857922

📍 US consumer prices increase as expected in July (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased slightly in July, potentially weakening the argument for an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve next month. The Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1% last month after dropping 0.4% in June, which was the first decline in six years, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-consumer-prices-increase-as-expected-in-july-4854914

🔹 Soft July jobs report fuels skepticism over possible Fed rate hike (Reuters) - The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July and nonfarm payrolls for the prior month were revised sharply lower, potentially raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates next month. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 20,000 increase in June, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising 80,000 after advancing by a previously reported 57,000 in June. Payrolls have a tendency to be softer in July. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/soft-july-jobs-report-fuels-skepticism-over-possible-fed-rate-hike-4846596

📍 U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July The U.S. economy saw an unexpected declined in jobs during July while the unemployment rate edged lower, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday in a snapshot that showed a slowing employment picture. Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 for the month, compared to a downwardly revised 20,000 for June. The Dow Jones consensus forecast had been looking for a gain of 83,000. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html?__

🔹 US service sector maintains strong growth pace in July Aug 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. services sector maintained a strong pace of growth in July as an acceleration in new orders was offset by higher prices for inputs and a decline in employment. The Institute for Supply Management said on Wednesday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index inched up to 54.1 last month from 54.0 in June. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-service-sector-maintains-strong-growth-pace-in-july-4838224

🔹 Private companies added just 44,000 workers in July, below expectations • Private companies added 44,000 jobs in July, a slowdown from the 95,000 the prior month and below market expectations, ADP reported Wednesday. • Virtually all of the job gains came from healthcare related sectors, with goods-producing industries seeing a net loss. • Pay growth for those changing jobs hit its highest level in nearly a year. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/private-companies-added-just-44000-workers-in-july-below-expectations-adp-reports.html?__

📍 US economic growth slows in second quarter, but domestic demand robust (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter amid a widening in the trade deficit, but an acceleration in consumer spending and robust business investment in equipment related to the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure pointed to underlying strength. Gross domestic product increased at a 1.5% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.1% pace. Estimates ranged from a 0.8% rate to a 2.9% pace. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-economic-growth-slows-in-second-quarter-but-domestic-demand-robust-4824275

🔹 30-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 after Fed keeps rates unchanged Yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasurys rose on Wednesday, as traders weigh whether the Federal Reserve can keep inflation at bay following its latest monetary policy decision. The 30-year Treasury bond yield jumped 10.5 basis points to 5.201%. It also hit its highest level since July 2007 at 5.244%. The benchmark 10-year note yield also climbed nearly 7 basis points to 4.671%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/treasury-yields-fed-interest-rates.html?__

🔹 Here's what changed in the second Fed statement under Warsh Federal Reserve and market watchers got their latest look at the U.S. central bank’s new era of communication with Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement. Below is a comparison of Wednesday’s FOMC statement with the one issued after the Fed’s previous policymaking meeting in June. Text removed from the June statement is in red with a horizontal line through the middle. Text appearing for the first time in the new statement is in red and underlined. Black text appears in both statements. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-decision-redline-heres-what-changed-in-the-second-statement-under-warsh.html?__

📍Divided Fed holds interest rates steady, but three members voted to hike The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to hold its key interest rate steady but not without opposition from three officials who have expressed concern over inflation and wanted to hike. Despite increasing support among some officials for a rate increase, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to leave the federal funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. All of the “no” votes came from regional presidents – Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas, who had been the most explicit about the need for higher rates to address inflation that has been above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html?__

🔹 US business activity perks up in July, helped by World Cup, but trend may not last, S&P Global says (Reuters) - Activity in the vast U.S. services sector accelerated in July, aided in part by spending around the FIFA World Cup and the Independence Day holiday, while the pace of growth in the manufacturing sector eased to the slowest since March amid a slowdown in precautionary stock building prompted by the U.S.-Israeli-led war with Iran. https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-business-activity-perks-up-in-july-helped-by-world-cup-but-trend-may-not-last-sp-global-says-4812037

🔹 Trump to impose forced labor duties on Friday as temporary 10% US tariffs expire (Reuters) - The Trump administration on Friday will impose new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on 60 trading partners, including the European Union, over allegations of lax enforcement of forced labor bans, just as a temporary 10% global tariff expires, senior administration officials said on Thursday. The move is the White House’s latest effort to restore President Donald Trump’s campaign vision of a near-global tariff after the U.S. Supreme Court in February struck down his "reciprocal" duties of 10% to 50% imposed last year under a national emergencies law to try to shrink the U.S. trade deficit. https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/trump-to-impose-forced-labor-duties-on-friday-as-temporary-10-us-tariffs-expire-4810104

🔹Bond yields rise as persistent energy shock fuels hawkish ECB and Fed hike bets A global bond sell-off deepened on Thursday as escalating Middle East transit risks pushed crude oil prices higher, driving short-dated German yields to two-year highs and lifting benchmark U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels since January 2025. Get full insights on global yields with InvestingPro - now 60% off In Europe, borrowing costs pushed sharply higher after the European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected, but explicitly warned that "the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out". The rate-sensitive German two-year yield, which closely tracks near-term ECB rate expectations, rose to an intraday peak of 2.877% - its highest level since mid-2024. https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/shortdated-yields-touch-highest-level-since-2024-ahead-of-ecb-rate-decision-4807611

🔹 10-year Treasury yield tops 4.7%, highest since January 2025 U.S. Treasury yields advanced on Thursday as oil prices staged a comeback amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — the key benchmark for U.S. government borrowing — was last up 5 basis points at 4.707%, the highest since Jan. 15, 2025, before the start of President Trump’s second term. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/treasury-yields-oil-prices-jobless-claims.html?

🔹 US consumer sentiment improves in July; renewed Middle East conflict poses downside risk (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment increased to a five-month high in July, but the improvement is likely temporary as renewed conflict in the Middle East raises gasoline prices. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said on Friday its Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54.4 this month, the highest reading since February, from a final reading of 49.5 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 51.0. The survey was conducted from June 23 to July 13, with more than 70% of interviews completed before the collapse of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran last week, which pushed oil prices to a one-month high. Gasoline prices have risen in response. The survey’s measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year slipped to a still-elevated 4.2% this month from 4.6% in June. Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next five years held steady at 3.3%. Government data this week showed a moderation in consumer inflation in June. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-consumer-sentiment-improves-in-july-renewed-middle-east-conflict-poses-downside-risk-4798651

🔹 US retail sales rise marginally in June (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased marginally in June as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts at service stations, though bargain-hunting consumers continued to support underlying spending. Retail sales rose 0.2% last month after an upwardly revised 1.0% jump in May, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, gaining 0.2% after a previously reported 0.9% advance in May. Estimates ranged from a 0.4% drop to a 1.0% increase. https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-in-june-4795811

🔹 Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined 0.3% in June on big drop in gasoline Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in June as sliding energy prices helped brighten the inflation picture, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The produce price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.3% decline for the month, compared to the Dow Jones consensus estimate for the final-demand cost measure to be unchanged. On an annual basis, the index indicated a 5.5% inflation rate. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.2%, against the outlook for a 0.3% increase. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/wholesale-inflation-june-2026-.html?

📍 US consumer inflation slows more than expected in June (Reuters) - U.S. consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June, but that will probably offer little comfort to households or rule out an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year, with the conflict in the Middle East still unresolved. The Consumer Price Index increased by a still-high 3.5% in the 12 months through June after surging 4.2% in May, which was the largest year-on-year rise since April 2023, data from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Tuesday. The CPI fell 0.4% over the month after advancing 0.5% in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI rising 3.8% year-on-year and dipping 0.1% on a monthly basis. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-consumer-inflation-slows-more-than-expected-in-june-4790868

📍 Warsh promises inflation will be a 'thing of the past' • Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh on Tuesday, in remarks he delivers to Congress this week, vowed to defeat inflation and “get monetary policy right.” • While he promised to tackle inflation, the central bank leader said the economy is in otherwise solid shape and will reap untold benefits from artificial intelligence investment. • “The members of our Committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation. And we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability,” he said. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/warsh-promises-inflation-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past-cites-benefits-of-ai-investment-boom.html?

🔹 Shifting Fed policy and rising bond yields could finally crack the stock market (Barron’s) - The Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh highlighted a big focus on artificial intelligence spending. Bond markets are listening. Minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, where interest rates were kept unchanged at between 3.5% and 3.75% but communication was sharply pared back under Warsh’s new leadership, suggested a hawkish stance among Fed governors, many of whom remained focused on inflation pressures in the world’s biggest economy. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/shifting-fed-policy-and-rising-bond-yields-could-finally-crack-the-stock-market/ar-AA27yPLh?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds