Coinhako (Official)

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 1 Nov 24 Earnings for US equities came out this week, with relevance to big tech and crypto companies. Coinbase 3Q revenue at $1.21bn, just under $1.25bn expected and announced a $1bn share buyback. Microstrategy had negative EPS of $1.72 because of their impairment charges on their Bitcoin holdings. MicroStrategy announced a strategic goal of raising $42B of capital over the next 3 years, comprised of $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed income securities. They plan to use the additional capital to buy more bitcoin. Robinhood's Q3 crypto trading volumes increase to $14.4 billion, more than double from last year. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its low interest rates in its latest policy meeting but signaled a potential shift toward a rate hike, potentially by December, as risks around the U.S. economy lessened. Traders price in the likelihood of Fed pause in December and we have the US jobs report (NFP) coming out tonight. With the US elections next Tuesday coupled with potential announcement of new Chinese stimulus and US FOMC announcement, it will be a volatile week. An analysis by Lookonchain highlighted ten high-stakes cryptocurrency whales collectively wagered $70.6M on former President Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. election, placing these bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket. Current data shows that Trump’s chances of victory are perceived to be at 66.7% on this platform, reflecting significant market confidence in his potential win. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $893.21 million on Wednesday -- the second largest day on record. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $872 million, bringing the total cumulative inflows across Bitcoin ETFs to $24.29bn since launch. Open interest in CME futures rose to a new record -- $12.5bn, with basis pushing higher towards 12.6%. Meanwhile, Circle has raised redemption fees for its USD Coin (USDC), marking the second increase in less than a year. The new fee structure, effective since September, impacts large-scale redemptions, particularly for institutional investors and high-volume traders. Redemptions over $15 million through Circle’s Mint platform are now subject to fees starting at 0.03% and reaching up to 0.1% per transaction, while daily redemptions of $2 million or more also incur fees. This fee adjustment responds to heightened institutional demand for liquidity in digital assets, although fee-free redemptions remain available for those willing to wait up to two days. The increase comes as Circle pursues an IPO and plans to relocate to Wall Street by 2025, aiming to position USDC as a regulated, internationally accessible digital dollar alternative. Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained flat at 58.13% and 62.39% respectively. The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH declined to 2.26 and -1.46 respectively. The 7-day at-the-money IV for Bitcoin has surged to 66.34, sharply diverging from the 30-day IV, which recently dropped to 56.79. The divergence likely reflects heightened short-term speculation around the U.S. election, with traders anticipating prolonged uncertainty if election results remain unclear post-November 5. The 7-day call-put skew for Bitcoin has dipped below the positive range, signaling a shift toward short-term bearish sentiment. This aligns with remarks from investors like Andrew Kang, who suggests that the recent "Trump trade" rally may be over. The dip in sentiment likely reflects profit-taking behavior following a 22% Bitcoin surge over the last 20 days and a significant increase in Trump’s Polymarket odds, from 47% to 67%, over the past month. However, the 30-day skew diverges from this pattern, increasing to 2.06, reflecting a bullish sentiment over a longer course of 30 days. Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 30 Oct 24 BTC surged close to ATHs at 73.6k, breaking 70K level for the first time in 7 months. US Dollar and US 10Y yields continue to be strong. Early voting for some states have began and Trump have been indicated to be leading in some of them. Crypto mining stocks on the US board and other crypto related tickers like Coinbase and Microstrategy continued their surge. Rising odds of a Trump victory have bolstered both stocks and Bitcoin. US equities indices remained close to their recent highs. Top inflows for spot BTC ETF with over $827M inflows just last night during US session. Emory University has become the first university endowment fund to disclose a $15 million position in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, underscoring the growing appeal of digital assets among funds with traditionally conservative mandates. Altcoins remained supportive but are lagging behind as BTC dominance finally touched the magic 60%. According to Coinshares – total crypto inflows hit $4.2B throughout the month, bringing 2023’s total to $27B (nearly triple the 2021 record). Overnight, front-end vol followed spot higher alongside skew, however flow remained surprisingly mixed. Given how the market has traded since printing ATHs, some hedging flow is not unexpected here as spot pushes into range highs. Unlike prior moves over $70,000, there’s a noticeable lack of willingness for the market to buy OTM wings. This does suggest some under-allocation, which opens up reflexivity should BTC hold through the highs. The 7-day at-the-money IV for BTC has spiked to 62.87, closely aligning with the 30-day ATM IV, which also rose to 58.29. The elevation in 30-day IV indicates traders are expecting continued volatility in BTC's price even after the U.S. election, signaling sustained uncertainty in the market's outlook beyond short-term events. Bitcoin's term structure remains in backwardation, with the recent IV spike shifting slightly leftward, beginning with six-day tenors. This trend highlights increased implied volatility across the curve, as option buyers are actively going long on Vega, positioning for potential gains from anticipated volatility. BTCs 7-day skew decreased to 0.84, and the 30-day skew dropped to 1.99, indicating that investors are actively hedging out positive delta by increasing put purchases to gain negative delta exposure. This trend likely reflects a strategy aimed at downside protection, as traders anticipate potential declines in BTC's price and seek to offset risk by positioning for potential downward movements. On the other hand, ETH’s skews have turned negative, indicating a more bearish sentiment among traders. The 30-day skew is currently at -0.25, while the 7-day skew has fallen further to -0.92. Market participants may be increasingly expecting potential downside for ETH, reflecting a more cautious outlook on the asset's short-term price movement. Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 28 Oct 24 (2) Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC remained relatively constant at 56.94% while ETH increased to 64.32%. The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH declined to 3.27 and -0.05 respectively. BTC’s 7-day ATM IV rose over the weekend to 52.86, while the 30-day ATM IV remained much more stable, showing a relatively flat trend with a mild uptick at 56.23. The stable 30-day volatility suggests that market participants expect this heightened volatility to be temporary, with more stability expected further out. For traders, this implies that shorter-term options may be more expensive due to increased volatility ahead of the super week (next week) for new Chinese announcements for Chinese stimulus, US elections and US FOMC announcement on rate cuts and monetary policy. Events for this week are: Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) by US Treasury Secretary Yellen tonight - early mornings (Asian time). Traders don't typically price in volatility for the QRA announcement but its relative importance is that it will set the tone on the pace of fiscal deficit, US treasury debt issuance schedule and indications on changes of US government fiscal policies. As the Fed has taken a backseat on driving the current rally in risk assets, the US Treasury have been at the forefront of providing that fiscal impulse to support the entire US economy via higher percentage of fiscal deficit and higher-than-normal Tbill issuance (>20% of total Treasury debt issuance). US JOLTS and US consumer confidence on Tuesday, BOJ interest rate decision on Wednesday, US Core PCE on Thursday and US Jobs Report on Friday. Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 28 Oct 24 (1) Geopolitical events such as the Iran-Israeli war and crypto-specific FUD from WSJ on Tether's holdings of US treasuries securities have crypto-majors close down on Friday. Crypto-majors recovered almost all of the losses from Friday as news that Iran-Israeli war are taking a breather and the WSJ article on federal investigations on Tether is outdated and had no standing. USDT tumbled to a low of 0.9965 before recovering above 0.9980s for the week. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has thus far denied these claims and it remains to be seen if the allegations are substantiated as this has not been the first time Tether has gotten under such scrutiny. As a result, Tether have been trading at a discount and Coinbase premium of their BTCUSD markets have stayed negative (in discount) over the course of the weekend. Crude oil closed lower on Friday closing in on its support zone of $60-69, while US 10Y yields and dollar continued its march higher. This has increased the MOVE index (a measure of US bond volatility) and this has spilled over into credit spreads and overall refinancing/funding liquidity of the tradfi markets. As BTC and other crypto majors showed strength over the weekend, BTC Dominance continued to stayed close to 60%, a 4-year high. Altcoin dispersion (difference in crypto market breadth and relative altcoin performance) continues well into the elections. Trump odds remain elevated as a 3-hour unscripted YouTube podcast video released over the weekend starring Trump and Joe Rogan. BTC ETF net inflows for the week amounted to $997.7 million, marking the 3rd consecutive week of positive flows, signaling robust institutional demand. Just on Friday alone, $402M inflows amounted into the spot BTC ETFs, while ETH ETFs had an outflow of $19.2M. ETHBTC reached a new low over the Friday events. Vitalik Buterin proposes roadmap to address ETH data complexity, to "The Purge". Lido DAO launches its Community Staking Module that allows Node Operators to run the first validator with a bond of just 2.4 ETH (1.5 ETH for Early Adoption members) and 1.3 ETH thereafter, greatly reducing from the original 32ETH to start a validator node. Meanwhile, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino addressed concerns about the reserves backing the USDT stablecoin during the PlanB event in Lugano, Switzerland, amid reports of a potential investigation by U.S. authorities. Ardoino detailed that Tether holds around $100 billion in U.S. Treasuries, over 82,000 Bitcoin valued at approximately $5.5 billion, and 48 tons of gold. FTX settles lawsuit against Bybit for $228 million. Hacker returns stolen funds to US government in less than 24 hours, from the Aave pool. Onchain activity have been rather hot on Solana, Hyperliquid and Base with the current hype on AI agentic memecoins (DAO infrastructure, AI memecoin agents, underlying AI memecoins). Solana price action over the weekend, so Solana DeFi ecosystem counters such as RAY, HNT, TNSR, JUP and the "older" memecoins such as WIF, BONK, POPCAT, MEW have been doing well. Binance have listed 2 new SOL ecosystem coins: MOODENG (animal meme) and GOAT (AI meme) recently. As the US elections come closer, Politifi sector have shown some promise, with tickers such as PEOPLE. The space have been discussing about the retail adoption of memecoin "casino" and its hyperspeculative attitude towards the sector because they are shunning away from VC-backed altcoins that have underperformed this entire cycle due to its highly inflationary nature from 1) its ecosystem grants and incentive farming schemes, 2) token unvesting for teams, insiders, KOLs and VCs. VC-backed altcoins tend to list on tier-1 CEXes at relatively high valuations (>1-10bn FDV, depending on consumer app or L1/L2 infrastructure). If Trump wins this election and instate a crypto-friendly SEC, retail might rotate back into Consumer App tickers that have great product-market fit, strong revenue-sharing mechanisms and the other VC-backed altcoins.

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 25 Oct 24 The Bank of Canada announced a 50bps rate cut, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 4.25% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations and the fourth consecutive rate cut. Capital Economics expects the Bank of Canada to continue to cut interest rates by 50 bps in December. The U.S. labor market shows signs of softening, with unemployment benefit claims falling unexpectedly but continuing claims raised to their highest level in nearly three years. This suggests it is becoming more difficult for displaced workers to find new jobs. The drop in initial claims reflects some normalization following the impact of recent hurricanes and ongoing strikes, while the rise in continuing claims signals persistent labor market challenges, exacerbated by job losses from strikes and permanent layoffs. Despite the slowdown, economists believe the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a cautious approach, supporting the economy with gradual policy easing. The Fed's recent rate cut has also stimulated home sales, though rising supply and higher mortgage rates may dampen future growth. The US elections are the event to be looking forward to (5th Nov) , with FOMC (6-7th Nov) right after. Before both events, we have the QRA (quarterly refunding announcement) by US Treasury Secretary Yellen. This could be one of her last QRAs and it is expected that she continue to announce fiscal deficit spending, financed by a higher-than-normal Tbill issuance (>20% of entire Treasury securities tranche). The US election could face a scenerio whereby presidential candidates will contest the results as counting estimates will be continually updated, until one candidate admits defeat. Trump has started to extend his lead over Kamala in betting markets, and key swing states are now polling Republican. Bets on Polymarket on both Trump and Harris have been traded heavily as market-makers are enjoying the increased volume heading into the event. Markets are now pricing in a potential Trump presidency. Talks of increased tariffs and tax reductions are causing the USD to rally and US bond yields to head higher. Given Trump's more crypto-friendly stance, it's no surprise that BTC is trading higher as well. As mentioned earlier, tickers such as 10Y yields, USDJPY, USDCNH, USDMXN, Bitcoin and precious metals such as Gold and Silver, are pricing in that Trump trade. In overnight news, Microsoft added an "assessment in investing in Bitcoin" as a voting item for its December shareholder meeting. The proposal includes the Board's recommendation to vote against it, with the SEC filing noting the Board's view that the proposal is "unnecessary," citing management's ongoing attention to this topic. Given this caveat, it seems any positive news here would demand a repricing. Additionally, It appears that around $20 million in stablecoins and ETH has been stolen from wallets linked to the U.S. government, based on on-chain activity monitored by Arkham Intelligence on Aave. Significant ETF activity was observed again over the past 2 days, with $188.1M and $192.3M on Wed and Thurs US session for the BTC ETFs. ETH ETF flows still seem rather muted and slow as ETH sold off with ETHBTC reaching fresh lows. SOLETH reaching new highs, however ETH showed more strength than BTC and SOL on today's dip. This week, SOL's strength has brought a bid on SOL ecosystem names such as JUP, JTO and RAY, alongside the usual SOL-based memecoins such as MEW and various other popular names. Apecoin surged nearly 60% following the Apecoin launch, while the gaming sector saw BEAM and PIXEL taking the lead. Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 22 Oct 24 A few Fed speakers over the past few days have mentioned about continued rate cuts but still keeping an eye on inflation. The US bond market have been selling off due to the rise in bond yields potentially pricing in 2025 inflationary impulse from potential Trump victory, implicating higher tariff odds and easier monetary policy. Investors rethinking on the prospects of slower US interest-rate cuts. A robust US economy, firming odds of a Donald Trump election victory and cautious comments from Fed officials on the pace of monetary easing muddies the prospects of gains for bond traders everywhere. The S&P500 is at record highs as 20% of the large-caps await earnings season this period and an incoming 23rd Oct Presidential debate between Harris and Trump on CNN. The MOVE Index is rising as a result of higher bond yields and stronger dollar - hedging downside on bonds into the US election, as market expects a spike in long-term bond yields. China's economy grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, marking its slowest expansion in 18 months and falling short of the government's 5% annual target. Weaker consumption and a prolonged property downturn have dampened household sentiment, despite Beijing's efforts to boost the economy with significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. Chinese share buybacks have surged to record levels in 2024, reaching RMB235bn ($33bn) as Beijing encourages companies to return cash to shareholders to boost the faltering stock market. However, Chinese equities sold off today with the Beijing stock exchange 50 index declining over 7%. BTC ETF inflows continue to dominate the headlines with $294M inflows last night. Short-term volatility is being priced for election day on risk assets (1.8% downside protection for US equities and 10-vol spread for BTC favouring calls), A recent poll done by veteran trader Brent Donelly shows that BTC can rally 4% and more if there is a Republican sweep and down 1-3% if there is a Democratic sweep. Other impacted asset classes/tickers can be on the USDCNH (chinese tariffs), USDMXN (mexican tariffs), US 10Y yield (fiscal impulse, tariffs vs inflation) and US equities (Republican sweep 2-3% and more, Democratic sweep down 1-3%). BTC 7-day and 30-day at-the-money IV decreased to 44.04 and 54.68, respectively. The Bitcoin term structure exhibits a contango pattern, with a pronounced increase in implied volatility (IV) for short-dated tenors up to 21 days, pricing in the volatile US elections and US FOMC. BTC’s 25-delta skew maintains a bullish sentiment, but both the 7-day skew and the 30-day skew have diverged away from each other to levels of 1.98 and 4.02, respectively. This divergence shows that traders are decreasingly bullish over the short-term. The BTC major market shows that traders have a preference for OTM calls over puts, possibly indicating greater demand for upside exposure. Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 18 Oct 24 China's Thursday meeting focused on rejuvenating and management of existing housing stock and financing for new housing inventory. Special bonds will be issued for local governments in acquisition of existing commercial housing and land. Mortgage rates are expected to decrease by an average of around 0.5%, with the majority of adjustments completed by October 25. Market was quite disappointed as they were trading into the event with high expectations. However, semicon stocks rebounded with the release of TSMC's earnings surprise to the upside. US retail sales came in slightly better than expected for the month of Sept and US jobless claims were in line with expectations. The ECB cut interest rates by another 25bps on their benchmark rates and will expect more rate cuts, given that 2% inflation target has been achieved with its recent Sep inflation rate at 1.7% yoy. ECB typically lag the Fed in monetary policy but this time, the Fed has been lagging behind. Since 11th Oct'24 last Friday, the BTC ETFs have 5 consecutive days of inflows up to $2.11bn, with Grayscale BTC ETF even receiving some inflows. The ETH ETFs just had 2 consecutive days of inflows in Wed and Thurs, with $24.2M and $48.4M inflows respectively. Market is definitely optimistic on the crypto-space. Total US Treasury public debt issuance have increased $500bn since end-Sep within 2-3 weeks. Monetary inflation have been growing with easier monetary policy from global central banks and increasing debt supply from world governments. Gold and Bitcoin have been big winners this year and it seems that this trend will continue well into end-2024. Worldcoin rebranded as "World" network and introduced a series of updates, including a next-generation Orb biometric scanning device and new identity verification methods in the age of AI and fake online personas/identity. Radiant Capital, a lending protocol on Arbitrum, suffered an exploit, resulting in the loss of $50M. Tapoica DAO have been exploited as well. Eigenlayer's Twitter/X account have been compromised. This incidents come in a period of hot onchain activity in the AI and memecoin sector. Meanwhile, World Liberty Financial (WLF), the crypto project backed by Donald Trump and his family, faced significant challenges during its token sale launch. The website experienced multiple outages due to high traffic. Eventually, the project only raised $13M, reaching 3.5% of its target. Trump DeFi project, WLF is built with Aave v3 integration. Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH dipped slightly to 57.29% and 62.62% respectively. The 7-day and 30-day at-the-money IV for BTC has slightly dipped to 46.75 and 56.44, respectively, likely due to the absence of major BTC-specific catalysts in the near term. BTC call-put skews have risen, with the 7-day skew at 2.26 and the 30-day at 1.92, reflecting sustained bullish sentiment even as demand for downside protection increases. Meanwhile, ETH skews have shifted into positive territory, with the 7-day skew at 1.05 and the 30-day at 0.90, marking a notable change in sentiment after being negative for most of October. The full curve now favours calls over puts, with some aggressive positioning into range highs. This has been accompanied with a jump in exchange traded open interest - ETH from $5.66 - $6.4bn, and BTC $11.7 - $13.65bn (WoW). BTC dominance have risen to a 4-year high of 60% this week and stalling around 58-59%. Back in Oct'16 and Oct'20, BTC had a great Uptober while tradfi US equities traded with a softer tone. In Oct'20, BTC dominance rose as altcoins (even ETH and alt/btc pairings) got crushed. Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 16 Oct 24 BTC traded rather supportively near 67.5k resistance as US stock indices declined with tech stocks coming off. ASML's earnings and outlook points to a slowdown in chip demand especially in China, causing a selloff in semicon stocks like NVDA and AMD. Bank earnings were rather robust but a few mentions of credit losses and more provisioning of capital in case of an economic slowdown. Key macro data releases include Chinese GDP numbers on Friday with US retail sales and jobless claims tomorrow. Chinese equities continued to trade sideways ahead of a meeting between the Chinese MOF, Housing Ministry and PBOC on Thursday. Chinese property stocks marched higher earlier today ahead of the meeting. BTC ETF inflows came in at $371M and ETH ETF outflows came in at -$12.7M at the end of the US session. Late last night, Tesla transferred its entire Bitcoin-denominated treasury—approximately $770 million—to multiple new addresses. Some could speculate that they might have the intention to sell. They could be changing custodians to somewhere more secure. However, Elon Musk seems busy promoting his new slogan for Trump's campaign D.O.G.E (Department of Govt Efficiency). Dogecoin rallied 8% throughout the day. Onchain memes have been hot throughout the month and now there are AI tools/platforms on top of memes. Meanwhile, Grayscale Investments has filed to convert its Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund, which tracks the performance of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, and Avalanche, into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained relatively unchanged at 57.86% and 64.11% respectively. The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH fell to 1.66 and 0.77 respectively. The 7-day and 30-day at-the-money IV dipped slightly but stayed elevated at 46.09 and 57.10, respectively. BTC call-put skews have eased as investors began purchasing BTC puts to hedge against downside risks after BTC briefly reached $67K. The US election is getting closer, with all statistical sources showing Trump leading the race, but there is still a large amount of uncertainty surrounding the US election. The flat option IV for BTC is 57% for the US election week, compared to only 47% for the week before the election, with the market giving a 10% IV spread for the election. The current term structure also illustrates an implicit market view that the market will not be too volatile until after the election. Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 15 Oct 24 BTC and ETH rallied on Monday's asian session to around 66k and 2650 respectively as risk sentiment improved. Chinese stimulus announcement over the weekend was in line with market expectations. Crypto has grown more bi-partisan in the US with Kamala addressing her approach to regulation yesterday. Fed Governor Waller indicated that a strong economy and mixed inflation date from recent data prints support a more gradual rate-cutting path following last month's 50bps rate cut. Oil prices dropped significantly on Monday evening after reports that Israeli PM Netanyahu assured the US that he would target Iranian military assets rather than its nuclear/oil infrastructure. US markets were open last evening but several banks were closed in celebration of US Columbus Day. Though BTC rejected the 66k level yesterday, the market saw strong inflows with over $555M across the BTC ETFs. Spot/vol correlation continues to move positive as IVs caught a bid and rose to highs of 60% before drifting lower to 56% with the retracement in spot. This shift in correlation is also reflected in the aggressive repricing of risk reversals, which are now more skewed to calls in the short term. BTC call-put skews have hit the monthly high, with the 7-day skew at 2.12 and the 30-day skew at 3.15, indicating growing market expectations of upward price movement. Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 11 Oct 24 US CPI rose more than expected at 2.4% yoy vs 2.3% estimated for the month of September. US Core CPI rises to 3.3% yoy, above 3.2% expected. FOMC meeting minutes was released early morning yesterday and the Fed isn't as dovish as market expects. US bond yields and the dollar have remained elevated over the past few days. Market is pricing in a 25bps rate cut in the coming early Nov FOMC meeting. Additionally, it is to be expected that the Fed may address money market concerns after the spike in SOFR rates on Sept quarter-end and may announce the end to QT. Market speculates that the Chinese monetary authorities will announce and start issuing around $283bn of new stimulus over the weekend. China's weighted average 7-day repo drop 12.41bps this morning to 1.53%, lowest since Jan 6, 2023 as the Chinese monetary authorities continue to support ample liquidity in its onshore money markets. Uniswap plans its own Ethereum layer-2 network called Unichain. Trump's DeFi platform, World Liberty Financial unveils more plans and raised 300M for its lending platform, based off Aave. SEC sued Cumberland DRW for unregistered securities dealings just early this morning. It feels that SEC is trying its last-ditch attempt to undermine crypto before a potential election of US Presidential candidate Donald Trump. Mt. Gox extends creditor repayment deadline to 2025, so that may alleviate supply overhang concerns from Mt Gox. Ripple files notice for cross-appeal in the SEC case. ETF flows continue to disappoint ahead of the US Election period as investors are even-keeled on risk assets. Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

🚀 Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 9 Oct 24 🏦 Long-term bond yields in US spiked after a bad auction last night. The MOVE index rose as a result, suppressing risk assets. China Finance Ministry schedules a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic growth on 12th Oct, after the huge pullbacks in Chinese equities. All eyes on CPI tomorrow as market throws caution on hotter-than-expected inflation numbers. 📉 Another XRP ETF have been filed by Canary. ETF flows over the past few days leave much to be desired as flows were pretty muted. Deribit's BTC DVOL rose slightly to 56.40% while ETH DVOL rose to 62.38%. BTC's 7D ATM IV at 41.48% showing that market don't expect much volatility ahead with negative 35 skews after 18-Oct, showing that there could a pullback or risk-off period heading towards the election. 👉 Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

🚀 Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 8 Oct 24 🇨🇳 Chinese onshore markets reopened after their Golden Week this morning with a selloff as the NDRC meeting disappoints with the lack of substantial stimulus announcements following the "chinese pivot" 2 weeks ago. Crude oil reaches $77-80 highs as the geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East but this will probably fade. The dollar continued to remain supported as US 10Y bond yields stayed above 4%. All eyes on Thursday CPI which could be hotter than expected but the market still focuses on economic growth and jobs numbers for the pace of Fed rate cutting cycle. Seasonality could show some downside hedging and selloff at the end of this week into the US election. Trump odds have been rising over the past few days with Polymarket pricing in higher odds and the Trump trade proxies such as $DJT (Trump's listed media company) shown a rebound last night. 📈 Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH declined to 53.71% and 60.37% respectively. The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC increased slightly to 0.56 while ETH decreased to -1.17.BTC’s 7-day and 30-day ATM implied volatility declined slightly to 43.78 and 53.71, respectively. The leveling off of 7-day implied volatility indicates reduced short-term uncertainty, suggesting that the market has absorbed immediate concerns. 30-day volatility remains elevated, indicating that option traders are more cautious about longer term price fluctuations than immediate ones. 👉 Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

🚀 Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 7 Oct 24 🏦 US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with 254K jobs created in September, highest in the past 6 months. Unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and hourly earnings grew by 4% year-over-year. This strong labor market data, driven mainly by the leisure, hospitality, healthcare, and government sectors, reduces the likelihood of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in November. Looking forward, the upcoming October jobs report will account for recent labor strikes and the impact of Hurricane Helene, but the overall data suggests a positive economic outlook, with analysts predicting a likely 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed. 🇨🇳 This week, China reopening following their golden week of labor holidays. Senior officials from China's top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, will hold a press briefing on Tuesday regarding measures to implement policies aimed at boosting economic growth. Market watching for more stimulus announcements from China for the risk rally to continue. The rally in Chinese equities and rebound in home sales showing some signs of hope for the Asian bloc. Additionally, this is a signal that the Chinese authorities have indeed pivoted back to "growth-at-all" stance in regards to its sluggish economy. 📉CPI is the major event of the week alongside a load of central bank minutes, however a non-scheduled event that may not be fully priced in is China reopening following golden week this week. CPI event IVs look fairly priced. Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained relatively flat at 57.23% and 64.85% respectively. BTC’s ATM implied volatility continues to rise gradually for 7-day IV and 30-day IV at 48.65 and 55.24, respectively. BTC’s 25-delta skew constant maturity indicates a bearish sentiment over 7-day tenors with skews at -1.76, while the 30-day call-put skew remains positive at 0.38, signaling a longer-term bullish sentiment. 👉 Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

🚀 Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 4 Oct 24 🇨🇳 While the Chinese stimulus euphoria and late longs into chinese equities fade from mid-week, US equities and crypto traded supportively with BTC bouncing off 60k and ETH off 2350. Besides the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, crypto remain resilient and the tensions fears should fade. 💰 ETF outflows have coincided with the selloff in the spot market for BTC and ETH and the geopolitical tensions. Grayscale announced a new investment fund for AAVE while Bitwise filed for XRP ETF. 📉 Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH remained relatively flat at 57.50% and 64.67% respectively. BTC’s at-the-money implied volatility continues to rise, with the 7-day IV reaching 49.23 and the 30-day IV at 54.25. The heightened IV reflects spillover effects on broader risk assets. BTC term structure has remained in contango. The 30-day call-put skew remains positive at 0.80, signaling a longer-term bullish sentiment, while the 7-day skew has turned negative at -1.89, reflecting short-term bearishness. 👉 Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

🚀 Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 24 Sep 24 🇨🇳 China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), plans to cut reserve ratio requirement (RRR) by 0.5% by the end of the year, reducing the amount of cash banks must hold. This move, alongside a 0.2% cut in the 7-day repo rate, 0.30% cut on MLF rate, aims to inject liquidity into the economy and stimulate growth. PBOC plans to lower mortgage rate for existing mortgages by 0.5%, cut down payment of 2nd housing purchases from 30% to 15%. PBOC to set up new Monetary Policy Tool to channel PBOC funding to Stock Market. They unveiled its biggest stimulus since the pandemic. Chinese stocks and bonds rallied and Asian stocks hit 2-1/2 year highs as the yuan currency jumped to a 16-month high against the dollar. 💰 In the last 24 hours, BTC has continued to see a decline in implied volatilities (IVs) as the price corrected slightly back to the $63K level following a recent surge. Notably, the shorter 7-day IV has dropped significantly from a peak of 63.55 to its current level of 57.17. This suggests that the market may anticipate BTC will consolidate in this range in the short term, accompanied by low volatility. Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH declined slightly to 51% and 60.3% respectively. The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC increased to 1.20 while that of ETH decreased to -0.64. Options market are neutral to slightly bullish. Spot ETF Flow for 23rd Sep: +71.98 BTC (+$4.56M), -29990 ETH (-$79.21M). 👉 Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

🚀 Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 23 Sep 24 🤖 Markets continued pushing higher with the positive sentiment from last week's 50bps rate cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments raised expectations for another 50-basis-point cut in November, though market participants remain divided on the likelihood. With no major catalysts expected this week, crypto might trade lower as rate cut euphoria fades. Presidential candidate Harris has announced support for Crypto and AI this morning as AI coins found a bid. In the mid-term, the USD weakening from the rate cut has given room for other central banks to manoeuvre, especially the PBOC. This should have opened the possibility for other economies to inject stimulus, which could be what Asian market participants could be positioning in anticipation of. 🏦 Over the weekend, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing and trading of options for BlackRock's spot BTC ETF iShares Bitcoin Trust, on the Nasdaq with the ticker symbol "IBIT." This move allows institutional investors and traders to use options as a more efficient and cost-effective tool to hedge or amplify their exposure to Bitcoin. The approval marks another step toward mainstream acceptance of crypto as an asset class following the launch of bitcoin ETFs earlier this year. In other news, Microstrategy has expanded its Bitcoin holdings by acquiring 7,420 BTC for $458.2 million, bringing its total holdings to 252,220 BTC, currently valued at nearly $16 billion. The acquisition was funded through an upsized $1.01 billion convertible note offering, increased from an initial $700 million. This purchase, made at an average price of $61,750 per BTC, further solidifies MicroStrategy's position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, continuing its strategy of using debt to accumulate BTC. 📈 This rally was supported by inflows from BTC and ETH ETFs + Microstrategy purchase. BTC ETFs recorded a significant net inflow of $250.30 million over the past two days, while ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $8.10 million during the same period. The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH increased to 0.69 and 0.22, respectively. Funding rates for BTC and ETH remain positive. Derivatives market is leaning towards neutral-slightly bullish over the near-term with BTC term structure still maintaining in contango. 👉 Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

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🚀 Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 19 Sep 24 🏦 The Fed finally commenced its 50bps rate cut, marking the first such move since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This decision, which aligns with market expectations in response to moderating inflation and a weakening labour market. The Fed aims to balance the risks between employment (or growth) and inflationary pressures as they seek to still bring inflation closer to its 2% target without significantly raising unemployment with tight monetary policy. The "dot plot" suggests more rate cuts to come by the end of the year, though Fed Chair Powell did not commit to indicating further series of 50bps rate cuts. Bank of England (BOE) will have their rate decision tonight while the Bank Of Japan (BOJ) will have theirs' tomorrow. The rate cuts signalled the Fed's intention to support growth in the mid-term and boost market sentiment as the market has perceived that the economy is still moderately strong. The Fed Put is still well and alive but at what price? Risk assets rallied upon Asian open. 📈 Deribit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) for BTC and ETH decreased to 52.23% and 61.22%, respectively. The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for BTC and ETH increased to 0.26 and -0.91, respectively. Bitcoin's 7-day and 30-day IV witnessed a sudden sharp decline before surging to 52.96% and 50.63% as hedges unwind after the FOMC rate announcement and press conference and some flows started to bid some calls. BTC’s 7-day and 30-day call-put skews transitioned to positive levels of 0.72 and 0.26, respectively, signalling potential reversal in price declines into a sustainable rebound into October. 👉 Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti

🚀 Coinhako Commentary/Colour - 16 Sep 24 🏦 ECB cut rates further last week and the Fed continues to be behind the cycle. Last Friday, equities and crypto closed higher, recovering from an early-September selloff, as investors are now pricing in 50% of a 50bps rate cut this week (18th Sep FOMC). There is some evidence that shorts on the S&P500 have been covering over this period. Chinese economic data and global commodities prices continue to disappoint, potentially sparking concerns of a global deflationary slowdown. US tax collections will be flowing into the Treasury General Account this week as funding liquidity will be drained from the financial markets. The US corporate blackout period have started from 13th Sep as market liquidity (top-of-the-book depth) have suffered and declined. Any market moves over this period could be on 'shaky ground'. As this month will be the last fiscal month for the US government, the SEC have been rather active in cleaning up some crypto cases recently eg eToro fined for offering crypto-securities. There would be an open meeting between the US House and the SEC over their oversight across crypto and DeFi on the 18th Sep. Since it is the new fiscal year 2025 is starting on 1st October 2024, there are some tussle between the Democrats and Republicans on implementing future new fiscal packages and this will dictate economic growth of the US economy in the coming quarters. The debate between Trump and Harris were rather disappointing last week as crypto was not mentioned and Harris had the "home-ground" on ABC News. Harris odds of winning the election have jumped after the debate and faded after another botched assassination attempt on Trump this morning. This week will be an important one as the Fed is about to commence its first rate cut, be it 25bps or 50bps and whether the Fed will stop its Quantitative Tightening policy. 🐻 ETFs continued to have outflows last week but there are some inflows on Friday. Onchain data still indicating negative crypto sentiment as whale interest in crypto waned. However, the reclaim of 60k over the weekend was fueled by mid-term accumulation from large holders, along with decreasing inventories of BTC on exchanges. Bitcoin's 7-day IV exhibited a noticeable upward trend, indicating a sharp increase in short-term market uncertainty to levels of 56%. The 30-day IV also shows a slight increase but not as pronounced as the 7-day maturity. Traders are expecting short-term volatility this week with the FOMC event. BTC’s 7-day and 30-day call-put skews show signs of persistent bearish sentiment, remaining negative at -3.37 and -1.76, respectively. The sharper decline in 7-day call-put skews indicates that the market is pricing in potential downside risks more aggressively in the short term than in the medium term while maintaining a bearish view of the overall market. The 30-day 25-delta skew (C-P) for ETH remained negative at -2.13, citing bearish sentiment. Altcoins in general underperformed BTC as ETHBTC have hit new lows. SOL have underperformed as a FTX-related entity just unstaked a tranche of SOL from the validators last week. ⚡️ Events this week: 17th Sep - Retail Sales US 18th Sep - FOMC Rate Decision 18th Sep - US House Hearing, SEC Oversight 19th Sep - Unemployment Claims US Entire Week - Token2049 Singapore 🗓 Have a great week ahead! Check us out for Token2049! 👉 Follow Coinhako Institutional Twitter for more commentary! https://x.com/Coinhako_insti