Crypto Map

A big collaboration with XT is coming🙌

The bear market is like this: after a strong downward move, it fluctuates up and down several times, even breaks a few minor resistance levels, and its candlestick patterns turn bullish. Because you have a mental bias expecting the market to recover, you get your hopes up and might even open a position. Then, it makes another strong new downward move, sweeping away all your analyses and positions! And this story repeats until the bear market bottom...

Bitcoin's monthly candle also closed last night And it started December stormily!!! 85k

Since some people asked, I'm posting this here: All these green candles you've seen this week still haven't even managed to cover the body of last week's candle! We haven't had any specific change in the downward trend so far

Bitcoin ETFs are an interesting phenomenon. With their launch in 2025, liquidity flow into the crypto market—especially Bitcoin—became easier and faster. However, no one anticipated that this development would also have a downside: during times of fear, it accelerates capital outflows as well!

Look, friends, in my opinion, given the heavy trends that have been broken, I currently see a low probability that 80k will be the market bottom. On the other hand, next week marks the official end of the QT (Quantitative Tightening) policy, and probably some time after that, the expansionary QE (Quantitative Easing) policy will begin, which is inherently good for the markets. We also have that story about Trump's stimulus checks, interest rate cuts, and other matters... So, currently, the strongest scenario for me is that we will have a deep correction, but one shorter than the previous ones. Right now, the most important area to look at on the chart for re-entry, in my view, is the 60-67 thousand range. It's an area that represents a 50% retracement from the top, has long-term clusters on the chart, and in summary, good reasons can be imagined for a reversal from that zone. But it comes with conditions - that we receive reversal signals from the chart, and only then can we consider re-entering. What I've said is currently at the scenario level, and we don't have sufficient confirmation for it yet. If we approach that area over time, it can be examined more closely and precisely. I mentioned this now so you keep it in the back of your mind for later...

The market is stuck at a good level. If today's NFP data comes in strong, it could complete its pullback to 100k…

#Bitcoin Cycle Timing

The weekly candle has closed. The first weekly candle below $100,000 after 26 weeks (6 months)!!

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⚡️ Summary of Ray Dalio's recent article: Ray Dalio says the world, especially the US, is approaching the end of a "big debt cycle"—a cycle where countries gradually borrow more and more, print money, and eventually reach a point where everything becomes artificially overheated, like a bubble on top of a bubble. You should know that the Federal Reserve recently announced it plans to shift from QT (quantitative tightening) to QE (quantitative easing)—meaning it will start printing money and buying bonds again. They're calling it a "technical measure," but Dalio says whatever you call it, it essentially means they're injecting liquidity into a market that's already overly optimistic. 🔻 What’s the current situation? Everything is mixed up: · Governments are deeply in debt · Politicians don’t dare raise taxes or cut spending · Wars are becoming a serious topic, leading to more spending · Technologies like AI are absorbing huge amounts of capital As a result, governments are printing money out of thin air to cover all these expenses. 🔔 But what’s different this time? In the past, when the Fed implemented QE, the economy was in recession, markets had fallen, and inflation was low. But now, it’s the exact opposite: The stock market is at all-time highs, unemployment is low, inflation is above target, and everyone is intoxicated with liquidity. In other words, they’re pouring money into a bubble. As Dalio puts it: this time it’s "stimulating the economy during a bubble," not "stimulating during a crisis." 🕯 What are the consequences? When the central bank creates money and buys bonds: · Real interest rates fall · Stock, crypto, and gold prices rise · The gap between the rich and poor widens · Sooner or later, inflation reignites On the surface, everything seems rosy, but in reality, you’re climbing onto an even bigger bubble. 📊 Dalio’s point: The Fed is pouring gasoline on an already fiery market. These decisions aren’t for "market stability"; they’re essentially printing money to fund government debt. As he says, it’s a dangerous gamble on AI growth and capitalism—a gamble paid for by future generations. ‼️ To summarize, Dalio says we’ve entered the final phase of the bubble. The Fed is playing the role of both firefighter and gas station attendant. Right now, everyone is happy, but this is usually where stories end. Dalio is warning that this round of money printing isn’t like previous ones. This time, QE is happening in the middle of a hot, bubble-filled market. That’s why, in the short term, markets will likely rally again—especially tech stocks, crypto, and gold. But in the medium term, this growth will lead to renewed inflation and pressure on interest rates. In other words, the next crash may stem from this very growth. It’s entirely possible that the next few months may seem sweet, but the sweeter it gets, the more painful the eventual burst will be

What I'm seeing suggests the chart pattern indicates we might test the flag's upper boundary again soon, around 120-121. There's a DP (Decision Point) zone there, and it's too early to make a call now. But if it successfully breaks through, we can start thinking about new highs again. As for below the flag—we've already discussed that—we should be prepared for stop-losses to trigger

Selling gold to bring into crypto? 😊

After reaching 91,000 with support at 80,000, it can now grow to 95,000 with support at 90,000. Additionally, during Trump’s presidency, we will see significant volatility in gold, crypto, the stock market, and even the situation in the Middle East. I’m not very optimistic about this agreement and negotiation. America knows that with hardliners in Iran, any agreement or deal is uncertain. So, they won’t sit idle. Israel should not have enemies in the future—this is important for the West, so the matter is clear and requires no explanation. May God keep the shadow of war away from Iran, but what can I say… I don’t have good expectations. If you’ve made good profits on any stock in the market, take your profits. Good night.

I will never personally invest in fixed-income funds.

What Trump did to the world's markets.

Based on futures market pricing, traders have fully priced in five interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025. All the imposed tariffs serve this very purpose: pushing the U.S. central bank to lower interest rates. This should be positive for crypto, but... the crypto market is still young and skittish. However, I still believe there are significant long-term gains to be made, both in stocks and crypto. The key is adhering to sound investment principles.

🚫 Experts say 2008 is repeating itself Massive debts, overheated markets, and political chaos! The warning signs are glaring, but excessive optimism has blinded everyone. Just like before the 2008 crash, everything seems stable. The United States must repay $7 trillion in debt over the next six months. With high interest rates, this cost is staggering. The only solution, it seems, is a market crash to make bonds attractive again. This is a highly risky strategy. Trump is back in power. He knows a market crash could lower bond yields and make debt cheaper. The sooner this happens, the lower the cost of rebuilding. The key lies in bonds: rising bond prices, falling yields, and thus reduced debt pressure. To achieve this, stocks must fall, and capital must flow into bonds. He has imposed heavy tariffs: 34% on China, 25% on South Korea, 46% on Vietnam. This isn’t about protecting domestic production but fueling inflation. Higher import prices will ignite inflation, weaken consumers, and confuse the Federal Reserve. Retaliation from trading partners is inevitable: U.S. exports will suffer, corporate profits will decline, and supply chains will be paralyzed. This is the beginning of a global collapse. Behind the scenes, liquidity is drying up. Trading volumes are shrinking, and the market is fragile under pressure. Just like in 2008, the surface appears calm, but the reality is terrifying. Banks may seem solid on paper, but their risky derivatives are disastrous. In theory, crypto should thrive in this chaos, but first, it will crash along with everything else. Institutions will sell Bitcoin and Ethereum, and altcoins will suffer the most. Later, like after the COVID-19 crash in 2020, everything will recover. Retail investors are still immersed in optimism. Despite a 30% loss since Trump’s inauguration, they trust his words and take risks. This is the same illusion before destruction. The next crash could wipe out more than 50% of value, similar to 2008. The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma: raising rates will choke the economy, while lowering them will reawaken inflation. They missed the timing in 2008; now, in 2025, they have no tools left. If the market crashes, there is no escape. Trump wants to control the narrative. A crash in 2025 is an opportunity for him to become a hero by orchestrating a recovery by 2026 or 2028. He will dominate economic cycles, public opinion, and elections. If this crash comes, it is part of the plan: rebuilding through the destruction of debt.

Good morning. For now, let's observe. Bitcoin dominance is rising, so altcoins will likely face selling pressure. At this point in the market, I have no buying or selling suggestions.

🚫 According to data released by Glassnode, Bitcoin whales (wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC) have purchased over 129,000 Bitcoin worth approximately $11.2 billion in the past two weeks. This accumulation volume is the highest since August 2024 and could be a positive signal for the market in the medium term. During this period, the 1Y HOLD Wave index, which reflects the behavior of long-term holders (holding for more than a year), has shown significant growth. This indicates that this group is unwilling to sell their assets despite macroeconomic uncertainties. In contrast, recent selling pressure has come from retail investors. Historical Growth of Whales: Based on historical reports from Glassnode, the number of whale addresses (holding over 10,000 BTC) has steadily increased from 2011 to 2024. Currently, there are about 110 large whales in the market, holding over 10% of Bitcoin's total supply. Impact of Whales on the Market: Research shows that whale activity often predicts major market trends. For example, in late 2020, before Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $69,000, whales similarly engaged in large-scale accumulation. Behavior of Long-Term Holders: Data from IntoTheBlock indicates that approximately 70% of Bitcoin in the market has not moved for over a year, the highest level in Bitcoin's history. This demonstrates strong confidence among holders in the future of this asset. These data suggest Bitcoin's upward potential in the medium term, but investors are still advised to proceed with caution and carefully assess macroeconomic conditions.