Doomsday CBRN

Once Again Deep Fission Radian Nuclear Valar Atomic Class Dismissed

Deep Fission potentially offers the greatest long-term transformation because placing reactors deep underground could reduce construction, containment, and land costs. It is also participating in the United States Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program. Nevertheless, its future is the most uncertain because the underground design remains largely unproven, requires additional financing, and may face environmental, community, and regulatory opposition. ( Deep Fission, Inc. https://www.deepfission.com/ Overall, Valar seems to have the strongest technical and financial momentum, Radiant may have the most practical path to early commercialization, and Deep Fission has the greatest speculative potential but also the greatest risk.

The future prospects of Deep Fission, Valar Atomics, and Radiant Industries are promising because electricity demand is increasing, especially from artificial intelligence, data centers, military facilities, and remote industrial sites. Valar Atomics currently appears to have the strongest position because it has already achieved a fueled criticality demonstration and recently obtained major financing to move toward reactor production. However, it still needs to prove that its reactors can generate electricity reliably and economically on a commercial scale. (The Department of Energy’s Energy.gov (https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-celebrates-second-advanced-reactor-achieving-criticality?

Deep Fission, Valar Atomics, and Radiant Industries are three nuclear-energy startups developing smaller alternatives to traditional nuclear plants. Deep Fission plans to install approximately 15-megawatt reactors deep underground, which could reduce construction and containment costs. However, its technology remains at an early stage and still requires significant testing, regulatory approval, and additional financing. Valar Atomics is developing high-temperature gas reactors for electricity and industrial heat. It appears to be the most technically advanced of the three because it has already achieved reactor criticality, but it remains a private company with a high valuation. Radiant Industries is developing Kaleidos, a portable one-megawatt microreactor designed to replace diesel generators at military bases and remote locations. Its smaller size and clearly defined market may make commercialization easier. Overall, Valar has made the strongest technical progress, Radiant may have the most practical early business model, and Deep Fission offers the greatest speculative investment opportunity because it is publicly traded, although it also carries the greatest risk.

VALAR ATOMIC Not Public Yet

RADIANT NUCLEAR https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-9Vh7tsgM7Y

Not Public Yet But VALAR ATOMICS

Not Public Yet but RADIANT NUCLEAR

What would make me upgrade it to a buy I would wait for at least one of these developments: Successful full-scale non-nuclear borehole deployment and retrieval.     This would retire an important portion of the drilling and mechanical risk. A clearly funded path through the nuclear pilot.     Another capital raise is not necessarily bad, but the price, dilution and runway matter greatly. DOE authorization followed by meaningful pilot construction progress. A binding customer agreement with credible economics, rather than a nonbinding development pipeline. Evidence that total reactor cost and construction time remain competitive after accounting for drilling, fuel, turbines, grid connection, operations and decommissioning. How I would handle the stock At $9.15, I would classify it as: Core portfolio: Avoid. Long-term high-risk nuclear basket: Small speculative position only. Aggressive event-driven trade: Potentially interesting around prototype-deployment and DOE milestones, but highly volatile. Preferred approach: Watch until the commercial-scale non-nuclear deployment is completed and the next financing terms are known. My practical rating is: Technology: 8/10 interesting Current technical proof: 3/10 Balance-sheet strength: 4/10 Dilution risk: High Valuation attractiveness: Moderate, not obviously cheap Overall: Speculative hold/watch—not yet a clean buy

https://www.kosu.org/energy-environment/2025-12-22/kansas-will-get-the-worlds-first-mile-deep-nuclear-reactor-30-miles-from-oklahoma-border The next meaningful demonstration is drilling a commercial-scale borehole and safely deploying the non-nuclear prototype. It has enough cash to continue near-term development Deep Fission ended June with approximately $93 million in cash, after raising $80 million privately and approximately $34 million net from its public offering. At the current market capitalization, the enterprise value after subtracting cash is roughly: \$504\text{m market cap}-\$93\text{m cash} \approx \$411\text{m} That is not an absurd valuation should the technology ultimately work, because a successful commercial reactor platform could be worth several billion dollars. Why I would not call it a buy today It has no revenue Deep Fission has not commercialized a reactor, and none of its planned revenue streams has begun. Its current value is entirely based on future technical and commercial success. The cash runway is already a concern For the first six months of 2026, Deep Fission: Lost approximately $52.4 million. Used approximately $42.5 million of operating cash. Ended June with approximately $93 million. Most importantly, management explicitly says its existing cash and recent financing proceeds are not sufficient to fund operations for the next 12 months under the current plan. It expects to require substantial additional financing to complete, license and commercially deploy its first reactor. That makes further share issuance highly probable. Dilution risk is substantial There were approximately 59.7 million shares outstanding at June 30, but also: Approximately 8.1 million stock options. Restricted stock and RSUs. Warrants. An equity plan that can automatically increase annually by up to 5% of outstanding shares. The company raised shares at: $3 in September 2025. $15 in February 2026. $16 in June 2026. That financing history shows both rapid valuation changes and a continuing dependence on equity capital. The present valuation still prices in meaningful success A roughly $411 million enterprise value for a pre-revenue company is not cheap in an absolute sense. It may be inexpensive relative to some highly promoted advanced-nuclear peers, but it still assumes a reasonable probability that Deep Fission progresses far beyond its current non-nuclear engineering phase. The fundamental outcomes could be binary: Successful borehole demonstration and regulatory progress could lift the stock dramatically. Drilling problems, groundwater concerns, regulatory delays, cost overruns or unsuccessful deployment could reduce the equity value sharply. The hardest engineering work remains ahead A 6,000-foot characterization well and tested canister are useful milestones, but they do not yet prove: Reliable insertion and retrieval of a nuclear reactor. Long-term borehole integrity under heat, pressure and radiation. Maintenance and inspection procedures. Emergency access and decommissioning. Groundwater isolation. Commercial construction costs. NRC licensing for ordinary commercial deployment. Community opposition has also emerged around the Parsons project, particularly regarding environmental oversight, water risks and the unusual regulatory pathway.

https://www.deepfission.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/116/department-of-energy-approves-nuclear-safety-design-agreement-for-deep-fissions-gravity-reactor-designed-to-convert-to-commercial-operation This is an interesting combination: Relatively familiar pressurized-water reactor technology. Oil-and-gas-style drilling and well construction. Underground containment and passive cooling. Potentially faster and cheaper deployment near data centers and industrial loads. However, no commercial nuclear reactor has yet operated using this particular deep-borehole configuration. The company’s Parsons, Kansas project is still in Phase 1, involving geological measurements, a non-nuclear prototype canister and eventually a commercial-scale test borehole. Its nuclear pilot is targeted for 2027. The bull case The stock has already repriced substantially FISN’s June 2026 offering was priced at $16, compared with today’s approximately $9.15. Investors are therefore no longer paying the IPO valuation. The concept could have enormous economic value The expensive parts of conventional nuclear projects include massive above-ground containment buildings, seismic engineering, security infrastructure and lengthy site-specific construction. If underground placement meaningfully reduces those requirements, Deep Fission could potentially deliver nuclear power faster and at materially lower capital cost. The design also uses relatively conventional reactor principles rather than depending entirely on exotic fuel or an entirely new reactor physics concept. That may reduce one category of technical risk, although the underground installation itself introduces substantial new engineering and regulatory risks. It has tangible progress—not just presentations At Parsons, Deep Fission reports that it has: Drilled a roughly 6,000-foot data-acquisition well. Fabricated and pressure-tested a prototype canister. Delivered that canister to the project site. Entered the DOE Reactor Pilot Program. The next meaningful demonstration is drilling a commercial-scale borehole and safely deploying the non-nuclear prototype.

Deep Fission FISN

At $9.15 per share and roughly $504 million market value, Deep Fission (Nasdaq: FISN) is best viewed as a public venture-capital bet. I would put it in the watch/speculative-buy-only category, not an outright buy. For someone comfortable losing most or all of the position, a very small allocation—perhaps 0.25%–0.5% of a portfolio—could be defensible. I would not make it a meaningful position until the company proves the underground deployment concept. What Deep Fission is trying to do Deep Fission proposes placing a conventional-style small pressurized-water reactor approximately one mile underground in a drilled borehole. The attraction is that the surrounding geology and water pressure could replace some of the expensive containment and safety infrastructure required by above-ground plants.

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