Dub Public

A new week ahead. The S&P 500 continues to power to fresh all-time highs, while BTC sits at some of its lowest trading volume in years, compressed within a tight two-month range. Something eventually has to give. The question is whether BTC finally follows risk assets higher, or whether this prolonged compression resolves to the downside. Either way, patience until the range breaks and volume returns.

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Keep an eye out over the coming weeks and months. I’ll be putting together similar breakdowns for the rest of my planned allocations, including BTC and ETH, which, as mentioned, I expect to make up the majority of my spot port. I’ll also walk through how I plan to accumulate each position, the price ranges I’m watching, and what would invalidate my thesis along the way. Dub

Going into the next cycle, I expect the majority of my portfolio to be BTC. Outside of that, ETH and probably no more than 2–3 alts. Right now, those are $HYPE, $LIT and $NEAR, although that list may evolve over time as new opportunities emerge, including projects that may not yet exist. Today’s post focuses on $NEAR. Of all the alts I follow, Near Protocol stands out to me based on its technology, user experience, tokenomics and revenue model. The token supply is now fully unlocked, meaning there’s no major future vesting overhang. At the same time, the protocol is seeing genuine user growth, generating real revenue, and directing protocol revenue towards $NEAR buybacks. Then there’s the product itself. At near.com, users can hold, swap and bridge assets across dozens of chains from a single interface. The complexity of bridges, gas tokens and routing is abstracted away in the background, making it one of the easiest onboarding experiences I’ve used. If you want to see the protocol in action, nearstats.org provides a transparent, live dashboard showing NEAR Intents volume, routes, fees, TVL and other ecosystem metrics. On top of that, NEAR has rolled out confidential cross-chain swaps and transfers through Intents. I believe privacy will become an increasingly important theme over the coming cycle, and NEAR already has a meaningful head start in delivering a seamless privacy-focused user experience. The same infrastructure is also increasingly being built for AI. You can now stake $NEAR to access AI compute and agent services, while chain abstraction and confidential execution provide the foundation for AI agents to transact seamlessly across multiple chains. Very few alts have a product I genuinely use, understand and can build a bull-run investment thesis around. For me, $NEAR is one of them. As you can see on the weekly chart above, price appears to be in the process of building a long-term base. Macro bottoms take time to form, so I’m in no rush. Personally, over the next 3–6 months I’ll be looking to accumulate within the shaded region, from current prices down towards the yearly lows around $1.00. If price were to lose that level and begin accepting below it, I’ll reassess the thesis based on the evolving market structure.

Solid response to this. It seems a lot of you are interested in seeing my planned approach and allocations for the next cycle, which is great to see. Keep an eye out. I’ll start dropping individual posts covering each asset, why I’m interested in it, and how I plan to approach accumulating it. Dub

U.S. CPI: +3.4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.4%) U.S. CORE CPI: +2.5% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.5%)

As we move deeper into the cyclical BTC bear year, I’ve also started thinking more about how I want to allocate capital for the next bull cycle. The landscape has changed dramatically since 2020. Back then, almost any altcoin could outperform. I don’t think that’s the environment we’re heading back into. My allocation will be much simpler this cycle. The majority will be in BTC, a smaller allocation to ETH, and then just 2 to 3 altcoins that I believe have the highest probability of outperforming on a risk-adjusted basis. I’d rather own a small number of high conviction positions than spread capital across dozens of speculative bets. If you’d be interested in seeing my planned allocation, along with the few altcoins I’ll be looking to accumulate and the reasoning behind each one, react on this post. I’ll put together some individual posts breaking down each asset and why it’s made the list.

As we move deeper into BTC’s cyclical bear year and closer to what will eventually become the next macro low, I’ve started sharing more data-driven macro analysis over on X to help people make more informed investment decisions and better understand where we may be within the cycle. For years, Crypto Twitter has rewarded engagement farming and perpetual bullishness. This often ends with retail buying into narratives at the wrong time while others profit from the attention and liquidity. I aim to offer objective, data-backed analysis that helps you think probabilistically and, hopefully, make better investment decisions throughout the cycle. If you find the posts valuable, I’d appreciate a like, or comment. It helps push data-driven content to a wider audience, and I’d love to see quality analysis rewarded over the usual moonboy slop. Dub https://x.com/TradoorDub/status/2086749819394257112?s=20

The week ahead.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data are released today at 8:30 AM ET. This is typically one of the higher impact macro event of the month and can drive significant volatility across: • BTC and crypto • Nasdaq & S&P 500 • USD • Gold • Treasury yields What’s particularly interesting is that this comes while BTC volatility is sitting at historically low levels. It’s important to note that volatility is direction neutral. It tells us very little about whether price is more likely to move up or down. Instead, it simply suggests the probability of a larger move increases as volatility begins to expand. That doesn’t necessarily mean the move begins today. However, history shows that periods of unusually low volatility have consistently preceded significant expansions in price. In general, the longer the market continues to compress, the larger and more volatile the eventual expansion tends to be. Worth keeping in mind today, and as we move deeper into August. Dub

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https://x.com/tradoordub/status/2085266235399512101?s=46

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BTC Update As discussed previously, July has historically been a seasonally strong month for BTC, even during prior bear markets. That aligned well with sellers being absorbed into the June 30 lows while higher timeframe momentum oscillators reached extreme oversold conditions and printed bullish divergence. BTC did bounce throughout July, although the move was far less impressive than I’d expected. ETH was the clear relative strength leader over the month, which is obvious when looking at the ETHBTC chart. So what now? We’re now at the end of July, and BTC continues to struggle with the 65k region. This remains a major market structure level, sitting around the 2024 VWAP, and every attempt to reclaim it has been rejected, including today’s move. Historically, July bear market rallies have often exhausted into month end or early August, and so far this cycle looks to be following a similar path. BTC has had plenty of time to build acceptance above resistance, but simply hasn’t been able to do it. Looking at the lower and mid timeframes, market structure is also beginning to weaken. After sweeping liquidity above 65k, market structure resistance and the VAH, BTC has started printing lower highs and lower lows. Combined with higher timeframe momentum becoming increasingly stretched after spending the past month trading near the top of the range, I continue to favour rotation back toward the lower end of that range. The first key downside area I’m watching is 62.8k to 63.1k, a HVN where prior month VWAP aligns with the developing yearly value area low. Losing that region would likely open the door for a quicker move back toward 60k. There is still liquidity sitting above the mid-June high around 67k that remains untapped. If 63k holds, BTC could still squeeze into that area. However, unless price can convincingly reclaim and hold 65k - 65.5k as support, I’d view any rally as a liquidity sweep rather than the beginning of a sustained trend higher. For now, my base case remains that the July bounce is nearing exhaustion, with lower prices likely into the back half of Q3. If BTC does go on to make fresh cycle lows, I’d expect that to align with what I believe will be the next macro accumulation opportunity. The anchored VWAP from the 2022 bear market low remains my primary higher timeframe downside reference. Keep the range and these key levels marked on your chart. The best risk-to-reward continues to come from trading the extremes rather than chasing moves in the middle. Will update again soon. Dub

It’s been 10 days since my last BTC market update, with price spending most of that time rotating around the upper bounds of the June to July range. In that update, I suggested remaining patient and only looking to do business at the range extremes, where the risk/reward was far more favourable. Today’s sharp rejection and lower high may be the first meaningful sign that higher timeframe momentum is beginning to shift. It’s still early, but the market is becoming much more interesting. If you’d like a full breakdown of what I’m seeing, the key levels I’m watching, and how I’m currently positioned, engage with this post and I’ll put the update together. Dub

Another big trading week ahead! Let’s get it.

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Quick BTC update Price action has remained fairly rotational, with BTC developing a range for just over a month now. This week we saw a clean push into the range highs, confluent with the 2024 VWAP, before ultimately putting in a swing failure and sharply unwinding today. We’re now sitting back at the range POC. This has come alongside broad risk-off flows. US100 sold off hard, the Nikkei is down more than 6% today, and we’ve already spent the last few sessions seeing heavy selling across AI, semiconductor and memory names, along with continued deleveraging in Korean equities. Personally, I’m still short from the failure at the highs. From here, I’m watching whether price can find acceptance below range POC. If it does, I’d expect a rotation towards range VAL to become the higher probability path. That said, POC is still the middle of the range. A short-term bounce or mean reversion from here wouldn’t be unusual, but I’m generally not interested in fresh positions in the middle. The risk/reward simply isn’t there. The area that interests me most for new longs is range VAL. If we rotate lower and begin seeing buyers absorb supply there, alongside supportive order flow and other confluence, that’s where I’ll start looking for long exposure. If you’re currently flat, I’d be highlighting this range and remaining patient. The upper and lower bounds are where I’d be most interested in doing business. Dub