English Newspaper Analysis & UPSC Pre- Mains

Trump slash on tariffs:- A Geopolitical reset. The White house moves to slash tariffs on 200 food import categories marks not only an economic correction but a strategic inflection point. The USA has also understood that it cannot survive with rising grocery bill and voters frustration. Rising supermarket prices, farmer discontent and pressure from swing state constituencies forced an acknowledgement that tariff orthodoxy may be popular in rallies but unsustainable in practice. This slash should also be seen in the light the USA wants a tactical confrontation with transactional diplomacy. Trump is ready to do sectoral negotiations with India, mexico, south Korea and Vietnam. Reasons for slashing:- 1. The USA cannot rebuild manufacturing without stable consumer prices, predictable supply chains. 2. China's export push in green technology, Latin America shifts towards resource nationalism, and EU carbon border taxation regime and global south rise as bargaining bloc are redefining global trade. 3. Brazil's agricultural dominance makes it indispensable for food security in the USA. 4. The USA wants to pursue aggressive industrial reshoring in strategic sectors like EV, AI chips, pharmaceutical by easing tarrifs on every day goods.

Trump( USA) , Xi ( China) , Lula ( Brazil ) A new concert?? The world's most powerful economy ( USA), and world's fastest rising power( China) and world's most influential Global south democracy ( Brazil) are forming an unexpected triangle of influence. Their interaction whether collaborative or confrontational determines who gets heard, which crisis received attention and how resources are distributed. These dynamics are now converging in a world facing climate breakdown, supply chain realignment, debt crisis, and geopolitical escalations. Lula is using Brazil' s global platform from G-20 to COP -30 to amplify the priorities of the Global south, climate finance, development financing, fairer trade and debt restructuring. Their combined diplomacy is already visible in climate diplomacy. Xi has framed China's ecological transition as a civilisational necessity. Lula, hosting COP-30 on Amazon has made the case of vulnerable communities. Even Trump's administration signalled interest in selective clean energy partnership and supply chain stabilization. A similar convergence is unfolding in global trade and technology. Trump's revised tariffs , Xi belt and road corridors and Lula's push to industrialise Brazil are reshaping global production networks. Their decision will influence AI governance, access to rare mineral and energy technology. Diplomatically all the three understand global crises cannot be contained without multilateral coordination. Lula is urging both the powers to consider the broader framework of dialogue where the "voices of many resonates". It is also known that the coming of three does not guarantee harmony. It does not eliminate rivalry but it changes the shape of the table. Power no longer flows between the two poles of the 21 st century.

1. Defence and security engagement A. Oman is the first gulf country with all the three defence forces that have conducted joint exercises. B. The Indian naval ship has remained on duty in the Gulf of Oman for anti piracy operations. C. Oman has allowed transit facilities for Indian military aircraft. D. Oman was the first gulf country to purchase Indian small Arms system assault rifle in 2010. E. The logistic agreement on Duqm port has been signed in 2018, providing nasing facility, operational turnaround and other logistics facilities. 2. Economic and commercial engagement A. Bilateral trade has increased to$10 billion in 2024-25. B. FDI inflows from Oman to India in last 25 years have been $605 million. C. Oman India joint investment fund between SBI and Oman investment authority has already invested $600 million in India. D. Central Bank of Oman signed MoU with NPCI for digital payment system. Energy cooperation, cooperation on education and health and possibly India Oman comprehensive economic partnership agreement is likely to be signed/ discussed in this visit.

Context:- PM Visit to Oman is more than a routine visit. Oman is a trusted partner 1. It opened its doors for India when everyone in the region was with Pakistan decades ago. 2. India signed a strategic partnership agreement with Oman in 2008 and Oman was invited by India as a guest nation for G-20. Key areas of cooperation

Everybody is talking about that Globalisation is collapsing, actually it is rewired not collapsing. It is evident in America' s Two Track play. What is this?? Let me delve deeper:- The USA is not hardening its borders for everyone, it is selective. The things that have changed is Trade is not now a universal good but a conditional asset and National security has become the dominant filter through which economic decisions are made. As we all are looking at tariffs being imposed by the USA, the hidden agenda is :- USA is open to trade but only with partners who fit into strategic architecture that reduces systematic vulnerability. Example:- 👉The USA is re-engaging with South East Asia and key middle power that can reduce China's dominance in the critical sectors. 👉 Expanded talks with vietnam on semi conductor scaling. 👉 US Mexico labour and rules of origin cooperation after the months of tarrif turbulence. 👉 A push to deepen ties with Brazil and Chile on critical minerals. 👉 Revived trade dialogue with Indonesia, Philipines and Kenya. 👉 American corporate diplomacy has Intensified their efforts. US companies are co- investing in friendshore clusters from Guadalajra to penang. 👉 Taiwanese policymakers expanding in Japan and Germany are also being pulled into US led security frameworks. 👉Physical borders are hardened but visa channels for high skilled AI , Robotics and quantum are being expanded to attract global expertise. China's Response to this Two Track Play of America 1. China has tightened Graphite and Gallium export controls. 2. Expanded its anti espionage law. 3. Increased pressure on foreign firms to data compliance regimes. 4. Started a yuan denominated settlement network giving Beijing leverage in energy, metals and belt and road Market. 5. It's "Global south Reinsurance campaign" from Gulf to Africa to Latin America is designed to reassure government that Chinese capital remains predictable. For USA, this hybrid posture of executed well allow the USA to rebuild industrial capability, shape next generation technological norms. But if mismanaged, and tariffs escalates unpredictably and if allows sees opportunistic USA rather than Strategic USA, it will be risky game.

What is changing in Europe and why?? Let me delve deeper Europe is trying to blunt the Russian reach in defence and energy. In terms of defence, European council members state a dual ambition:- To become more sovereign, more responsible for its own defence and coordinated fashion with NATO. This ambition needs money and European commission readiness 2030 initiative ( ReArm Europe) lays out massive effort to ramp up defense investment. Central to this plan is SAFE instrument where 150 billion pounds is dedicated to joint military procurement especially in areas like air and missile defense, drones and cyber infrastructure. EU wants a indigenous defense architecture and this prioritises European suppliers. The European government is planning a "defense space shield" to safeguard military and communication satellites from potential threats emanating from Russia or china. European ambition could invite external setbacks as Moscow is unlikely to sit idle when a neighbour is posturing. Moscow knows capable Europe and stronger NATO could exacerbate tensions especially in eastern Europe. Energy Warfare by European countries Europe is entering a decisive era in energy geopolitics, a transformation accelerated by the trade and industrial policies of former US President. EU policymakers now understand that dependency on a single supplier is a structural vulnerability that must be addressed. What is the EU doing? 👉 Transition towards renewable energy. Program such as REPowerEU aimed at accelerating wind and solar deployment, improving efficiency and reducing reliance on Russian has. 👉 Phasing out LNG imports and limiting pipeline flows, Europe is actively reducing exposure to a source of energy long weaponised for geopolitical leverage. 👉 Brussels is branching out to Qatar, Norway and N Africa balancing supply security against political and logistical risk. By aligning climate and energy policies with security imperative, Europe is demonstrating a new model of state craft:- One where domestic Policy, global markets and international diplomacy converge.

1. Stewardship: India is setting the tone of cooperation rather than competition and therefore India is prioritising ecosystem restoration, biodiversity protection and sustainable fisheries. 2. Resilience: India can establish Regional Resilience and ocean innovation hub to improve early warning systems and transfer technology to small Island developing states. 3. Inclusive Growth: Focus on green shipping, sustainable aquaculture and marine biotechnology. To strengthen all the three pillars, there is a need of Fund. 1. At Blue Economy and Financial Forum, development Banks and private investors highlighted 25 billion pound pipeline for existing ocean investments. 2. Brazil launched Once Ocean Partnership committing to mobilise $20 billion for ocean action by 2030. 3. The Finance in common ocean coalition brings together 20 public development funds announced an annual pledge of$7.5 billion.

Context: India's responsibility and opportunity towards Indian Ocean The Indian ocean is a home to 1/3rd of the humanity and also the most vulnerable basin on the earth. India's stance : 1. India stood for small Island nations during negotiation on UN Convention on the law of sea. India made it clear that seabed beyond national jurisdiction should be the "Common Heritage of mankind". 2. JL Nehru: He recognised Ocean centrality to India's future. Our future is closely linked with freedom and resources of the oceans. 3. I Gandhi: At Stockholm conference, PM Warned we do not want to impoverish environment. 4. Modi Ji: We seek Indian Ocean known for peace, stability and prosperity (SAGAR Initiative). In today's context, India is exploring Blue ocean strategy which rests on 3 Pillars:

Context: India Russia talks The relationship has been characterised as Pole state means sustained and certain relation despite of ups and downs in global order. 1. Both sides have talked about Energy security 2. Boost trade in national currencies.Target is $100 billion. 3. Russia needs 50000 semi skilled labour. Both sides signed Temporary labour activity of citizens of one state in the territory of other state. 4. Broadening cooperation in the nuclear energy sector, Between ISRO and Roscosmos in teh use of outer space.

Context: No peace between Ukraine and Russia The peace progress started with Istanbul Plan, mediated by Turkey according to which Russia would return to pre war position and would withdraw from annexed territories but then Ukraine in return would have to leave NATO membership and also adopt Russian language as second official language. However Istanbul process soon collapsed. Then Trump 28 point peace plan was proposed with following features, which is almost equal to the defeat of Ukraine and recognise what Russia is seeking for: 1. Crime, Donetsk and Luhansk will be recognised as De facto Russian territory. 2. Ukraine will have to withdraw from Donetsk. 3. Russia will withdraw the territories seized. 4. Ukraine will mention in its constitution to not join NATO in future,. If Ukraine accepts this, it amounts to defeat and if not Ukraine will loose more and more territory to Russia Because then after this US will not support.

Context: Meeting of Colombo security conclave hosted by India. This grouping was started in 2011 as a trilateral grouping between India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. But the group lost its momentum because of political transition in Maldives and Sri Lanka. However now Bangladesh , Mauritius have also joined as full time member. This year summit is very crucial: 1. Seychelles have joined as full time member to the forum. 2. Underscores the growing vitality of the security dimension. 3. Inclusion of Malaysia further expanded this group. Challenges: 1. Domestic uncertainties in the countries. 2. China factor. 3. Need a strong institutional framework as right now it is limited to NSA level meet.

1. By 2050, one in every 4 people will be in Africa and India is going to be third largest economy. This is a potential for both to continue relationship. 2. Trade: India is top 5 investors in Africa. Trade has surpassed $100 billion. India's Exim Bank has extended $40 million commercial credit line to the ECOWAS BANK for investment and development. 3. Security: India and 9 African countries conducted Maritime exercise (AIKEYME). The African continental Free Trade Area is laying the groundwork for a single continental market. 4. Education: New campus in Zanzibar by IIT madras. This is because of decade long engagement through Pan African e network and Indian technical and economic cooperation. SUGGESTION: 1. Connect finance to real outcomes. 2. Built on India Africa digital corridor. 3. Revive Institutional backbone, like Meeting of India African forum summit not held for last 10 years.

Context: India Africa relation 10 years ago, India has hosted Indo Africa Forum Summit and since then 17 new missions have been added. Opportunities:

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Context: State specific GHG emission reduction model by Tamil Nadu. TN being one of the most industrialised State has contributed only 7% of total Emissions in 2019 and also reduced its emission intensity to GDP by 60%. HOW? The State created TN Climate change mission , TN coastal restoration mission, TN wetland mission, Green TN Mission. FOCUS AREAS: 1. RAPID EXPANSION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY 2. IMPROVED ENERGY EFFICIENCY 3. INDUSTRIAL CARBONISATION 4. AMBITIOUS ELECTRIC MOBILITY PROGRAM TN renewable energy accounts for total installed power capacity is 60%. 1. The State has focused on district level decarbonisation and real time climate action tracker. More focus on Niligiri, Coimbatore, Virdhunagar and Ramanathapuram. 2. State took the help of Vasudha foundation. 3. Large scale afforestation, mangroves and wetland restoration. 4. Focus on agriculture, livestock and waste along with industry. 5. Communities are placed at the centre of this transformation.

Under the 1949 treaty, Bhutan agreed to be guided by India in the conduct of its external affairs while India promised not to interfere in internal politics of Bhutan. This is actually protectorate model used by India for Bhutan and Nepal which is in stress now. Such model failed in Nepal but Bhutan has managed to expand its strategic interest without any confrontation with Delhi. India has already revised the treaty in 2007 and deleted the clause that Bhutan will be guided by India in external affairs. And new treaty talks about mutual respect and territorial integrity. However now Bhutan is expanding its relation with Japan and also tries to resolve Boundary dispute with China India needs to be cautious and understand that HYDRO Project is the foundation of our relation and and now India should focus on Defence and strategic cooperation with Bhutan.

Context: India Bhutan relation is based on Friendship treaty 1949, but now Bhutan seeks to revise the treaty for equality in relations as this treaty was signed in the backdrop of cold war. Now its international engagement is rising and with the rising interest of China, Bhutan now demands for revision.

1. Russia has been conducting numerous Arctic military exercises, and since 2014, it has built over 475 new military structures. 2. In 2012, a large-scale Russian naval exercise was held in the High North that included more than 7000 personnel and about 20 naval units. During the exercise, the Northern Fleet conducted Russia’s first-ever amphibious landing on the Arctic archipelago of the New Siberian Islands. 3. CANADA:- Since 2007, the Canadian military has held Operation Nanook in the country’s north every year. It is an exercise aimed exclusively at exercising Canadian sovereignty. 4. Another exercise by Canada is Exercise Cold Response in which more than 16,000 troops from 14 countries are believed to have participated. 5. In 2012, Canada and the U.S. conducted a 42-day joint Arctic expedition to survey the continental shelf – only two weeks after a Russian research vessel was dispatched on a similar mission India's Policy towards Arctic: Focussing on climate change, environmental protection and sustainabel development. Now India will have to play constructive role as stakes are high: 1. Growing unease among nordic countries over India's ties with Russia. 2. Growing Russia China coordination in Arctic. Suggestion: 1. India must look beyond science with dedicated desk in the foreign and d efence ministeries. 2. India should partner with like minded countries on dual use initiatives like: Polar logistic and maritime domain awareness and satellite monitoring. Conclusion: India's current policy is not without merit but not adequate.

Context: Arctic is being millitarised day by day. India focus on looking at arctic from only environmental perspective may bring cost in future. Toay Arctic is representing great power competition. Evidence of Millitarisation:👇👇

India has used the term that IWT is " Hold in abeyance". There is no any mentioning of such word either in IWT or in Vienna convention on the law of treaties. This convention uses the term Suspension which is different from termination. It seems that India has suspended the IWT, Not terminated. IWT cant' be altered unilaterally, this treaty can be terminated when agreed by both the parties. However, Article 62 of vienna convention allows treaty to be repudiated if there is a change in circumstances compared to he time of signing the treaty. However India is not a party to this convention. It appears that India is using this section 62 as there is a change in circumstances after pahalgam.