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SAUDI SUPERTANKER RETURNS TO KEY OIL TERMINAL A supertanker has been spotted at Saudi Arabia’s main Persian Gulf oil terminal for the first time in nearly a month. Satellite images show a 2-million-barrel crude carrier moored at Ju’aymah, part of the Ras Tanura export complex. The sighting comes as Saudi Arabia redirects millions of barrels through its Red Sea port of Yanbu amid regional shipping threats. Another tanker, capable of carrying around 1 million barrels, was also spotted at Ras Tanura.

GOLDMAN SEES CORE PCE AT 0.23% Goldman Sachs expects July core PCE to rise 0.23% M/M, slightly above core CPI and consensus. Portfolio management fees are expected to add 8 bps, reflecting Q2 equity gains. Goldman says upcoming methodology changes could create volatility in PCE readings and lower annual core inflation. The bank expects core inflation near 0.2% in August and sees the Fed holding rates steady through year-end.

OIL SPILL HITS IRAN’S QESHM ISLAND Iran is battling an oil spill off Qeshm Island, with pollution reaching beaches near a breeding ground for endangered sea turtles. The spill’s source remains unclear, but cleanup efforts are underway. Environmental risks have risen sharply during the U.S.-Iran war, with the International Maritime Organization recording 65 confirmed shipping incidents across the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East since March. A separate oil spill is also being addressed near Oman’s coast.

SANTANDER STILL SEES SEPTEMBER FED HIKE July CPI is unlikely to decide the Fed’s September move, according to Santander’s Stephen Stanley. Unrounded core CPI rose 0.215% M/M, equivalent to a 2.6% annualized pace. Despite the broadly in-line inflation report, Stanley continues to expect the Fed to raise rates in September, followed by another hike in December.

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YARDENI LIFTS S&P 500 TARGET TO 8,400 Ed Yardeni raised his S&P 500 target to 8,400 from 8,250, citing “fabulous earnings momentum.” He now expects 2026 S&P 500 earnings of $375, up from $330, as companies broadly beat forecasts. Yardeni sees the earnings-driven rally continuing and maintains his 10,000 target for 2029. He puts recession and bear-market risk at just 20%, viewing any major pullback as a buying opportunity.

CPI EASES PRESSURE ON FED TO HIKE July CPI came in close enough to expectations to reduce pressure on the Fed to raise rates in September, according to Nick Timiraos. The Fed has argued current rates are restrictive enough to bring inflation toward 2% without further hikes. But persistent tariffs, energy pressures and AI-driven demand for technology equipment and software are complicating that outlook. For now, the CPI report gives policymakers more room to hold rates steady.

SEPTEMBER FED HIKE LOOKS UNLIKELY Baird’s Ross Mayfield says softer core inflation and limited wage pressure strengthen the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in September. He sees those trends as the “bedrock” for a pause, reducing the likelihood of another rate hike at the next meeting.

GOLDMAN: JULY CPI SUPPORTS SEPTEMBER HOLD Goldman Sachs Asset Management called July CPI “encouraging,” saying contained core inflation strengthens the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in September. Lindsay Rosner said the report adds to signs that underlying inflation is moderating. However, another inflation report is due before the September FOMC meeting, meaning the outlook could still shift. For now, the in-line CPI print supports a Fed pause.