ForeDex

Not all market-maker flows tell the same story. ForeDex Recognized Analyst 리치나비 isolates the one worth watching: 🕵️‍♂️ This week’s rise in market-maker outflows is heavily concentrated in Wintermute. Isolating Wintermute’s MM-to-exchange flows shows a stronger relationship with Bitcoin’s recent downtrend than the aggregated data. 🔎 Over the past two weeks, Wintermute sent more than 1,000 $BTC to Binance twice. Similar 1,000+ $BTC transfers have been rare over the past six months, appearing around February and May–June, both periods of strong BTC declines. 🔎 Meanwhile, Fidelity’s FBTC have shown persistent outflows this week. Spot ETF flows that supported July’s rebound are shifting toward net outflows, weakening a recent source of support. 📉 With Wintermute deposits rising alongside weaker ETF flows, the bearish structure is strengthening. I expect the two-month range to resolve, likely toward a stronger downside trend. View Chart

Whale positioning is leaning constructive, but Bitcoin still has one gate to clear. ForeDex Recognized Author Faruk examines the setup: 🔸 Recent Bitcoin exchange activity suggests whales and large wallets are leaning toward the buy side, with Binance, Bybit, and Bitfinex showing similar positioning. 🔸 DVOL is also near bottom levels, supporting the possibility of an upward move. However, a more constructive outlook still requires $BTC to break above $65K. View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance: Increased 📈 2. Bybit: Increased 📈 3. Bitfinex (USD): No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT): No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: A mild increase appeared on Binance, a stronger increase on Bybit, and both Bitfinex pairs stayed unchanged. View Chart

✨ Unrealized Profit Stress Ratio (UPSR) A common observation this cycle was that NUPL failed to reach previous-cycle peak levels. 🔍 ✅ While NUPL measures net unrealized profit/loss, UPSR looks specifically at the profit side. 🔸 A position carrying a $1 unrealized gain and another carrying a $10,000 gain may both be profitable, but they represent very different amounts of embedded profit. 🔸 UPSR measures that depth by comparing total Unrealized Profit with Realized Cap. ✨ So ForeDex also provides Adjusted UPSR, excluding identified ETF-related entities to separate native on-chain conditions from the post-ETF custody layer. Current readings: 🔹 UPSR: 41.98% 🔹 Adjusted UPSR: 59.45% 🔹 Euphoria reference: 220% ✅ At this cycle’s peak, Standard UPSR remained below the 220% Euphoria level, but Adjusted UPSR crossed it once ETF influence was removed. ✅ Now it has fallen back to 59.45%. 💡 A major reset, but still above the roughly 28% levels seen around previous cycle bottoms. Read More View Chart

The market changed, but the old metrics did not. ForeDex Recognized Author Trader Gemini examines the mismatch: ⚖️ Spot ETFs changed Bitcoin’s market structure, making some pre-ETF on-chain thresholds harder to apply directly. [...] 📊 Standard MVRV peaked near 2.70 in the previous advance versus 3.51 for Adjusted MVRV; today they read 1.21 and 1.46. Standard MVRV therefore appears closer to historical bottom zones, while the adjusted reading remains nearer the prior “body/shoulder” than the deeper “knee.” 📊 Loss metrics show a similar gap. Standard ULSR is about 21%, rising to roughly 30% excluding ETF entities, versus around 45% near previous major bottoms. Adjusted ULSR shows greater stress, but still below historical capitulation levels. 💡 Standard metrics reflect today’s ETF-era structure, while ETF-excluded versions offer a cleaner comparison with earlier cycles. Comparing both reduces the risk of drawing overly simple bottom conclusions from historical thresholds alone. View Chart

Not all holder stress carries the same weight. ForeDex Recognized Analyst OnChainBR examines the distinction: ➡️ Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss is around 42.8%, but that alone does not show how severe those losses are. 'Unrealized Loss Stress Ratio(ULSR)' measures loss depth by comparing total unrealized losses with realized cap, and the current reading of 21.6% remains well below the 45% capitulation threshold and the levels seen in November 2022 (49.1%) and December 2018 (50.1%). ➡️ The current setup therefore reflects broad but relatively shallow stress rather than full capitulation. ULSR was even higher at 23.2% during the July 2021 correction, reinforcing that the metric is better used as a gauge of loss severity than as a precise timing signal. View Chart