Forex Analysis - InstaForex Official

Trading Recommendations for Bitcoin on August 17 According to the ICT System Bitcoin continues to correct and is clearly moving slowly towards the only "bearish" FVG on the daily chart. In recent weeks, the price has primarily been moving away from this pattern, and Bitcoin is signaling that it is preparing for another decline. It should be remembered that the correction can end at any moment, not necessarily within any specific pattern. Currently, there are no signs that the bearish trend, which began last year, is coming to an end. The fundamental backdrop also remains negative for the cryptocurrency segment: the Federal Reserve does not intend to lower the key rate in 2026, capital continues to flow into the AI sector, spot demand for Bitcoin remains weak, geopolitical tensions are unstable, miners are repurposing their equipment for AI needs, and strategy continues selling Bitcoin reserves. We see no reason for a strong rise in "digital gold."Meanwhile, experts have reported that it will take over 100 years to mine the remaining one million Bitcoins. Many traders and experts associate regular "halvings" with the growth of "digital gold," believing that the reduction in miner rewards every four years is a growth factor. In our view, it is quite the opposite. The continuous decrease in mining rewards without a rise in Bitcoin value makes mining unprofitable. The "halving factor" alone does not justify mandatory price doubling every four years.Simply put, Bitcoin is not obligated to grow in price by at least two times each cycle just because of "halving." The price can only rise if demand consistently exceeds supply. However, "halvings" are inevitable and reduce miner incomes every four years. Thus, in the absence of continuous growth, interest in mining new Bitcoins declines, which in turn decreases investor interest in "digital gold." Therefore, we believe that in the long term, Bitcoin is unlikely to be on a course toward $1 million, but rather will hover in ranges disconnected from new ATHs for years. Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 1D On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend. The trend structure is bearish, with the CHOCH line at $82,800, and a new LL (Lower Low) has been formed. Only above this level can it be considered that the downtrend has ended. Since there are still no signs of a trend reversal to the upside, we believe the decline will resume once the current correction is over. On the daily timeframe, a bearish FVG has formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range, making it the only POI area for sales. Additionally, around this pattern, there is a liquidity pool consisting of two nearly equal highs. The execution of the FVG may coincide with the removal of liquidity, strengthening the sell signal. Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 4H On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a rising corrective trend. The CHOCH line, which supports the upward trend, has not been broken and lies at $62,500. A consolidation below this will indicate the completion of the latest corrective wave. Liquidity above the trend line has been gathered, so the current decline is entirely justified. Last week, three bearish FVGs were formed; the price reacted to the first two, and now it is at the CHOCH line. The reaction to the last FVG has been practically absent, so Bitcoin may show slight growth at the beginning of the new week. Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD: Read more: InstaForex

What to Watch on August 17? Fundamental Events Review for Beginners Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday. Thus, there will be few drivers for movement today. Most likely, we are in for a "boring Monday" with minimal volatility. The euro and pound may continue their modest growth based on technical factors.Analysis of Fundamental Events: Among the key events on Monday, we can highlight the speech by the European Central Bank's Chief Economist, Philip Lane. It should be noted that the ECB is the only G7 central bank to have already tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation amid the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the energy crisis. However, the ECB does not intend to stop there and is ready to conduct another one or two tightenings in the event of further increases in consumer price growth. Therefore, the comments from the Chief Economist may indicate to traders whether they should expect a further rate hike in September. In our view, the conflict in the Middle East will continue, so the chances of a complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz are virtually non-existent. This means that oil prices are unlikely to fall in the near future. The geopolitical backdrop still leaves much to be desired. The US and Iran continue to exchange strikes regularly; negotiations are not being conducted at this time; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, and Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia. Tehran threatens to completely close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington attempts to exert pressure again. Tehran has presented a list of demands to Washington necessary for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump has made his demands merely for show. Neither side intends to fulfill them. Today marks the expiration of a two-month memorandum of understanding that both sides have long since violated. General Conclusions: On the first trading day of the week, currency pairs may trade quite sluggishly again, as no significant news is expected today. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1584-1.1594, while the pound sterling can be traded from the area of 1.3587-1.3598. Overall, we expect further strengthening of the euro and pound against the US dollar. Main Rules of the Trading System: The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even. What the Charts Show: Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement. Read more: InstaForex

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on August 17? Simple Tips and Trade Review for Beginners Trade Review for Friday:1H Chart of the GBP/USD PairThe GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Friday within the rising channel on the hourly timeframe. Thus, even on the hourly chart, technical factors currently support further growth of the British currency. On Friday, US macroeconomic data created additional problems for the dollar, as reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment showed weaker-than-expected readings. As a result, all key reports regarding the state of the US economy in recent times have been weak. The probability of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy in September is approaching zero, and in the longer term, it is simply declining. This week, the UK will release the July inflation report, which could significantly enhance the chances of seeing tightening of the Bank of England's monetary policy this fall. Thus, the pound may gain another growth factor this week. Overall, we continue to believe that the GBP/USD pair is targeting the 1.3900 level, which was reached earlier this year and marked a 4-year high. 5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair On the 5-minute timeframe, one buy signal was generated on Friday. Earlier in the night, the price rebounded from the 1.3456-1.3476 area, allowing novice traders to open long positions even at the start of the European trading session. Throughout the day, the pair gained around 50 pips, providing a good profit on the trade, regardless of when it was closed. How to Trade on Monday: On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair retains its upward trend. In our view, the pound sterling should continue rising, even if local factors do not support it. On the weekly timeframe, the movement from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary continues. This movement is not complete. Market confidence that the Fed will raise the key interest rate in September is diminishing, as recent US macroeconomic data has been weak. Only a consolidation below the upward channel on the hourly timeframe could allow the dollar to consider growth. On Monday, novice traders may open short positions if there is a rebound in the 1.3587-1.3598 area, targeting 1.3456-1.3476. Longs can be opened with a target of 1.3631-1.3641 if price consolidates above the 1.3587-1.3598 area. On the 5-minute timeframe, consider trading levels of 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Monday, there are no important events planned in the UK or the US, so volatility is likely to be low, and there may be no notable movements. Main Rules of the Trading System: The strength of the signal is assessed based on the time it took to form (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored. In a flat, any pair can generate a plethora of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even. What the Charts Show: Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Read more: InstaForex

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on August 17? Simple Tips and Trade Review for Beginners Trade Review for Friday:1H Chart of the EUR/USD PairThe EUR/USD currency pair returned to 1.1584 on Friday and, overall, retains an upward trend. We have repeatedly listed a whole range of factors supporting the euro and acting against the dollar. Therefore, even without local grounds, the European currency can continue its upward movement. However, there were indeed reasons on Friday. The GDP report for the Eurozone in the second quarter received little market attention, but it proved bland, with both quarterly and annual figures matching forecasts. On the other hand, both American reports supported buyers, showing values well below expected levels. Retail sales in July decreased by 0.6% versus forecasts of +0.1%, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was 51 in August, though the market expected 54.5. Thus, the dollar continues to decline, albeit slowly. In our view, the decline of the American currency will continue. 5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were generated on Friday. During the Asian trading session, the price rebounded from the 1.1527-1.1531 area. Still, at the opening of the European trading session, it had not strayed far from the signal formation point, so traders could safely open long positions. During the American session, prices bounced from the area of 1.1584-1.1594, but it was unlikely that new positions should be opened before the market closed for the weekend. Long positions yielded about 35 pips in profit. How to Trade on Monday: On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. Considering all the events of recent months, we believe that the European currency should continue to rise confidently. In recent months, the market has stubbornly ignored many factors in favor of the euro, so we continue to expect further gains for the euro. On Monday, novice traders may open short positions with targets of 1.1527-1.1531 if the price rebounds from the 1.1584-1.1594 area. Long positions can be opened if the price breaks through the 1.1584-1.1594 area, with targets at 1.1655-1.1666. On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the levels 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, and 1.1745-1.1754. On Monday, there are no significant events or publications scheduled in the Eurozone or the US, so we can expect a "boring Monday." Volatility has been low in recent weeks and is likely to remain low today as well. Main Rules of the Trading System: The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades are opened around a level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored. In a flat, any pair can generate a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even. What the Charts Show: Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Read more: InstaForex

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for GBP/USD on August 17. The Pound Aims for the 39th Level Analysis of GBP/USD 5MThe GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Friday, and this may persist into the coming week. Recall that the US dollar has accumulated all possible factors for its decline in recent months, so even in the absence of local news and reports, it may continue to fall based on technical factors. We continue to draw traders' attention to the fact that the British currency began moving from the lower boundary of the sideways channel on the daily/weekly TF towards the upper boundary, around the 1.3900 level. Thus, even without tightening monetary policy from the Bank of England or a peace agreement between the US and Iran, the pound can continue to rise. Moreover, the probability of Federal Reserve tightening in the coming months has decreased to almost zero, while the US economy under Donald Trump is more stalling than growing. This week, several important data points will be published in the UK, but the main focus should be on the inflation report. If inflation begins to accelerate, the BoE may raise the key rate in the fall, which would be an additional growth factor for the British currency.From a technical perspective, the British pound continues to form an upward trend on the hourly TF. In the long term, the pair remains in a sideways channel and continues to move from the lower boundary of this channel to the upper boundary. Therefore, the nearest target is 1.3588, but this level does not look like a "final stop." On the 5-minute TF on Friday, at least one trading signal was generated. In the European trading session, the price overcame the critical Kijun-sen line, then gained around 20-30 pips by the end of the day. Volatility remains low, but pound sterling overall is showing relatively stable growth. COT Report The COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with selling positions for several consecutive months. The net position is negative, despite the long-term upward trend persisting. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict continues. Geopolitics can support demand for the US dollar in the near future. However, we would not expect a strong decline in the pair until there is consolidation below the trend line. In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly TF. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the US currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price recently tested this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated August 11), the "Non-commercial" group opened 10,300 BUY contracts and 8,600 SELL contracts. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,700 contracts during the week. Analysis of GBP/USD 1H On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. In the long term, both European currencies still "look" higher and have been in sideways channels for a full year, which does not negate the upward trend that began in 2022. We expect continued growth from the British pound over the coming weeks. The upward trend will be interrupted if the price solidifies below the trend line. Read more: InstaForex

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on August 17. The Dollar Gives Ground Analysis of EUR/USD 5MThe EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Friday, August 14. Throughout the day, the US dollar lost approximately 50-60 pips and continued to slide down slowly. There is room for growth for the European currency, as shown by the daily timeframe. In the first half of 2026, the US dollar appreciated against the euro from 1.2070 to 1.1350, and it is currently much closer to the cycle's low than to its high. Therefore, we reasonably anticipate that by the end of the current year, the pair will return to 1.2070. Earlier this year, we forecast that the euro would continue to grow. Geopolitics in the Middle East has clouded forecasts, but it can now be said that this factor no longer supports the dollar. Moreover, there are no other support factors for the dollar at this time. All the most important US reports have shown values that do not support the dollar. On Friday, both reports—retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index—showed weaker-than-expected values, thus supporting the decline in the American currency.From a technical standpoint, the pair has left the sideways channel at 1.1362-1.1461 after a month of "walking through torment" and is now in an upward trend. The euro remains close to its local highs, but growth over the past two weeks has practically stalled. However, the dollar cannot fall every day; this is a much slower process. Overcoming the 1.1585 level will open the euro's path to 1.1657. On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were generated on Friday. In the morning, the price overcame the 1.1536-1.1542 area, allowing long positions to be opened. During the American trading session, the level of 1.1585 was reached, at which the price ultimately bounced back. Therefore, long positions should have been closed, and it was even possible to open short positions. Both trades were profitable. COT Report The latest COT report is dated August 11. The weekly TF illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has become "bearish" and has significantly decreased in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding European currency in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar served as a "reserve currency" for a time. We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the European currency, while there are enough factors indicating a fall for the American dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when this factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will revert to normal. And this process may have already concluded. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Over the past months of dollar strengthening, the pair did not get too close to this line. The positions of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group fell by 4,600, while the number of short positions decreased by 2,700. Consequently, the net position shrank by 1,900 contracts during the week. Analysis of EUR/USD 1H On the hourly timeframe, the pair maintains its upward trend, but in the last two weeks, it has moved more sideways than up or down. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and is not improving, but this is no longer sufficient for a new, powerful rise in the dollar. The market has ignored all positive factors for the euro in recent months and has focused solely on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, placing excessive demands on it. Now, the European currency has every chance of medium-term growth. Read more: InstaForex

GBP/USD Overview on August 17. A Week of British Data The GBP/USD currency pair also showed an upward movement on Friday, which aligns with the current geopolitical, fundamental, macroeconomic, and technical picture. Simply put, the pound sterling is rising entirely justifiably, even though there are no local reasons for such movement. It is worth mentioning that the geopolitical factor no longer supports the dollar; recent macroeconomic reports from the US have disappointed, market expectations for tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy are slowly fading, and the British pound is within a yearly sideways channel on both the daily and weekly timeframes, continuing its movement from the lower boundary to the upper. Therefore, we believe the British currency should continue to rise.Next week, the main macroeconomic reports will, in one way or another, be related to the UK. Among them are several reports that are unlikely to interest the market given the current circumstances, but can still be considered important. For example, the unemployment rate and wage levels will be published on Tuesday. Of course, unemployment and wages are critical indicators of an economy, but right now the market is not focused on these data points. However, inflation data for July, to be released on Wednesday morning, can rightfully be considered the most important indicator of the week. It is expected that the consumer price index in July will accelerate to 2.9–3.0%, which could significantly bring the Bank of England closer to tightening monetary policy.This brings us to the most crucial point — monetary policy. The BoE is generally prepared for tightening monetary policy if necessary. However, in recent months, inflation in the UK has slowed, and discussions of an interest rate hike have subsided. If inflation begins to rise (as Andrew Bailey has warned), the BoE will not hesitate to raise interest rates one or two times. This distinctly sets it apart from the Federal Reserve. Donald Trump influences the Fed, while the BoE is free to make decisions it deems necessary. The Fed, on the other hand, is still dragging its feet. In June and July, the Fed could have tightened policy, as inflation has remained well above target throughout. However, Kevin Warsh expresses only verbal concern about high inflation, which has exceeded the target level for the past 5 years. In practice, we see only three members of the Fed's Monetary Committee willing to vote to tighten policy, and Jerome Powell is not among them. Therefore, the Fed, in our view, will continue to procrastinate, while the BoE could come close to its first tightening in a long time this week. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank may also implement a second rate hike in the fall, while the Fed seems content to sit back and wait. As a result, both the euro and the pound have every chance of continuing to strengthen against the American currency by the end of summer and the beginning of autumn. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of August 17 is 50 pips, which is considered "low." On Monday, August 17, we expect the pair to move within the range bounded by 1.3483 and 1.3583. The overall linear regression channel is directed downwards, indicating a continuing downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area, prompting several retracements. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3489 S2 – 1.3428 S3 – 1.3367 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3550 R2 – 1.3611 R3 – 1.3672 Trading Recommendations: Read more: InstaForex

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on August 17 Bitcoin and Ethereum have slightly recovered after the drop experienced over the past weekend. Overall, the situation in the cryptocurrency market is relatively calm.Meanwhile, CryptoQuant reported that the share of Bitcoin held at a profit by holders has dropped to 51.4%—the lowest level in over three years. This means that 48.6% of the entire circulating supply is currently held at an unrealized loss. This is a stark reversal compared to the October peak of the cycle, when nearly 100% of coins were in profit. The last time this metric fell to similar levels was in early 2023, when Bitcoin was trading in the range of $16,000-20,000, while today's price is holding three times higher, highlighting the scale of the current correction relative to how much capital entered the asset at much higher levels over the past two years.The dynamics of recent months show that the market approached this zone not with a single sharp jump but gradually. As of August 5, the share of profitable coins was 52%. The metric had briefly dropped below 50% in June and July before recovering, and the current 51.4% represents a renewed attempt to test the same critical boundary. Such volatility around the psychological mark of 50%, rather than a single sharp drop, is characteristic of a protracted capitulation process rather than a one-time event. As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below. Bitcoin Buy Scenario Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $63,800, with a target for growth to the level of $64,200. Around $64,200, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero. Scenario No. 2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $63,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward levels of $63,700 and $64,200. Sell Scenario Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today at around $63,600, targeting a drop to $63,100. Around $63,100, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero. Scenario No. 2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $63,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction to levels $63,500 and $63,100. Ethereum Buy Scenario Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,907, with a target for growth to the level of $1,926. Around $1,926, I will exit my buy positions and immediately sell on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero. Scenario No. 2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $1,897 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction to levels $1,907 and $1,926. Sell Scenario Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,897 with a target for a drop to the level of $1,885. Around $1,885, I will exit my sell positions and immediately buy on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero. Scenario No. 2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $1,907 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction to levels $1,897 and $1,885. Read more: InstaForex

EUR/USD Overview on August 17. You Can't Argue with Macroeconomics The EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly soared on Friday. However, it cannot be said that volatility was off the charts that day; rather, it was only 60 pips, which is quite ordinary. Nonetheless, in comparison with the previous four days, 60 pips is considerable. The most important point is that the reasons behind the sharp rise of the euro are not entirely clear. Here are some very important points to remember.Firstly, we fully support the euro's growth and believe that any increase is entirely justified. A multitude of factors support this. The technical analysis supports the upward movement on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes. On the 4-hour TF, we have a local upward trend. On the daily TF, there is a yearly flat, within which price moves from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary, with preliminary deviations. On the weekly TF, we have an upward trend that began back in 2022.Secondly, globally, the US dollar received support in 2026 primarily due to geopolitics. When Donald Trump began the war with Iran, capital started fleeing from the Middle East, using the dollar as a "safe haven" and as an intermediate means for transferring capital from one instrument and asset to another. However, geopolitics has an expiration date. In other words, capital cannot flee indefinitely. Sooner or later, it will escape. And that is what happened a few months after the conflict began. Thirdly, the fundamental backdrop does not support the US currency. Two months ago, the market somehow believed that tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was inevitable in 2026. The market based its conclusions exclusively on Kevin Warsh's rhetoric, forgetting entirely that Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump, who likely learned from mistakes made after Jerome Powell's tenure. Therefore, we have every reason to assert that Warsh is neither inclined nor intends to raise the key rate. Meanwhile, Trump has resumed pressure on the Fed, demanding a rate cut and renewing his desire to fire Lisa Cook. Fourthly, macroeconomic reports in recent months have significantly disappointed in the US. The market continues to ignore European data, but it cannot ignore US data. Here we see a drop in US GDP to 1.5%, a two-month slowdown in consumer prices, and a four-month decline in the labor market, particularly reflected in the NonFarm Payrolls report. Thus, almost all factors suggest that the dollar will continue to depreciate. Regarding Friday, after two weeks of "stagnation," the European currency began to rise early in the morning, although there were no local reasons for this. In other words, we are not surprised by the euro's appreciation against the dollar—it's just that the move was unexpected on Friday. In the afternoon, US reports of medium significance on retail sales and consumer sentiment were released. Both reported weaker-than-anticipated values, which supported the decline in the US dollar. The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past 5 trading days as of August 17 is 37 pips and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1534 and 1.1608 on Monday. The overall linear regression channel is directed downwards, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area and formed a "bearish" divergence, warning of a possible downward retracement. However, we have already seen several pullbacks. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1566 S2 – 1.1536 S3 – 1.1505 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1597 R2 – 1.1627 R3 – 1.1658 Trading Recommendations: Read more: InstaForex

Bitcoin No Longer Correlates with Stock Indexes and Gold Bitcoin and Ether continue to correct, and the correction may take quite a long time. Over the past one and a half months, Ether and Bitcoin have recovered slightly, but there is still no sign of the end of the downtrend that began last year. The fundamental backdrop remains weak for the crypto segment and is mainly reflected in low spot demand, the flow of capital into the artificial intelligence sector, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to achieving 2% inflation, which implies, at minimum, the maintenance of tight monetary policy in the near term. Thus, we still do not see grounds for a prolonged rise in Bitcoin and Ether.Meanwhile, independent experts are increasingly discussing a new status for Bitcoin in the global financial system. Recall that Bitcoin was for a long time linked to US stock indexes (both assets are risky) or to gold (a safe asset). According to most "experts" in recent years, Bitcoin was supposed to rise at any given moment. If gold rises, Bitcoin should rise too, because Bitcoin is "digital gold," a "hedge against inflation," and a "safe haven." If the US stock market rises, Bitcoin should rise as well, because Bitcoin is a risky asset. Most of these "experts" have still failed to decide what Bitcoin actually is: a risky asset or a "safe haven"? And this fact explains better than anything to traders whether they should listen to statements by Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, or Robert Kiyosaki. All these businessmen are respected figures in the financial world, but they are parties interested in Bitcoin's growth. Because they themselves have investments in "digital gold" or manage companies engaged in investments. Naturally, they will forecast eternal growth of the first cryptocurrency, because growth requires an inflow of capital and new investors. If neither the first nor the second exists, how will the asset grow?By the way, the US stock market does not need advertising and constant growth forecasts. US stock indexes continue to rise regardless. Yes, many experts note another "bubble" that can burst at any moment. But it has not burst yet. As for Bitcoin, the asset's price has been falling for three quarters already. Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD: Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has, in essence, already been worked through. But we do not believe the downtrend is over. The last "bearish" FVG pattern was formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area on the daily TF, so this area acts as a POI for short positions over the coming weeks. On the 4-hour TF, Bitcoin is again inclined to fall, but most likely movements will remain choppy and "swingy." Traders can consider trade options from local patterns, but we would not expect strong moves now. Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD: On the daily TF, the downtrend that began in August last year continues to form. The key sell pattern remains the "bearish" order block on the weekly TF. We do not believe the current downtrend is over, since there are no signs of its completion for either Bitcoin or Ether. A second wave of correction is currently underway, which recently transformed into a flat. In a flat, you can only trade from its boundaries, and the further direction will be determined after the flat ends. Near the upper boundary of the sideways channel, $1,800–$1,942, no deviation or pattern was formed, so no trading signal appeared. At present, Ether is located exactly in the middle of the channel. Notes on illustrations: CHOCH – break of trend structure. Liquidity – liquidity, stop-loss, pending orders that market makers use to accumulate their positions. Read more: InstaForex

What to Watch on August 14? Fundamental Events Review for Beginners Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:Several macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Thursday. In the European Union today, the Q2 GDP report will be published, but most experts say this indicator is not important. In the United States today there are medium-significance reports: retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. If the actual values deviate strongly from forecasts, they could provoke a market reaction. However, volatility in the currency market has been rather weak for two weeks now. Therefore, it is unlikely we will see strong movements today.Analysis of Fundamental Events: There is absolutely nothing to single out among Friday's fundamental events. Comments from Federal Reserve representatives would be interesting at this time, because traders need to understand the current stance of the US central bank. Recent US labor market reports have been disappointing; inflation has slowed for the second consecutive time, yet it remains fairly high. On the one hand, the key rate should be raised; on the other hand, why raise it if inflation is falling and the labor market is experiencing renewed problems? The more "dovish" comments we hear, the worse the dollar's position may become. We believe the Fed will not tighten monetary policy in September. The geopolitical background still leaves much to be desired. The US and Iran continue to exchange strikes regularly; negotiations are not being conducted at this time; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia, and Tehran threatens to completely close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington again tries to pressure it. The market does not believe Donald Trump's statements, and Iran now prefers to negotiate with Oman rather than with the US. Tehran has presented a list of demands to Washington that are necessary for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump is unlikely to comply. General Conclusions: During the last trading day of the week, currency pairs may again trade rather weakly, since even this week's inflation report failed to stir the market. The euro can be traded today from the area 1.1527–1.1531, and the pound sterling from the area 1.3456–1.3476. Main Rules of the Trading System: The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even. What the Charts Show: Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement. Read more: InstaForex

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on August 14? Simple Tips and Trade Review for Beginners Trade Review for Thursday:1H chart of the GBP/USD pairThe GBP/USD pair remained within the upward channel on the hourly TF on Thursday, but movement was extremely weak. Pound sterling retains an upward bias, but it is struggling to advance further. We cannot say there are no grounds for this. This week, for example, the US inflation report was released, which showed a second consecutive slowdown (albeit within forecasts). Slowing inflation means the Federal Reserve has fewer reasons to tighten monetary policy, especially given the dire state of the labor market. However, traders were not particularly impressed by the slowdown in consumer prices, as they expect the indicator to rise in August amid higher energy prices, particularly oil, to $90. In July, Brent fell to $70 per barrel. The conflict in the Middle East persists, and Tehran and Washington do nothing but bombard each other with new demands and ultimatums. We see no desire to end the conflict. Thursday's macroeconomic data in the UK did not support the pound. 5M chart of the GBP/USD pair On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, a buy signal was formed. The price bounced during the European session from the area 1.3456–1.3476 and moved up a "whole" 25 pips. It, of course, did not reach the nearest target. Volatility remains extremely low. How to trade on Friday: On the hourly TF, the GBP/USD pair maintains an upward trend. In our view, the pound sterling should continue to rise, even if local factors do not support it. On the weekly TF, the movement from the lower boundary of the sideways channel toward the upper continues. And that movement is not finished. Market belief in a Fed key rate hike in September is melting before our eyes; the latest US macro data have all been weak. Only a consolidation below the upward channel on the hourly TF would allow the dollar to count on growth. On Friday, novice traders can open short positions if there is consolidation below the area 1.3456–1.3476, with the target 1.3380–1.3386. Long positions can be opened with targets of 1.3587–1.3598 if the price bounces again from the area of 1.3456–1.3476. On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at the levels 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, and 1.3695. On Friday, there are no important events scheduled in the UK, and in the US, less important reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment will be released. Therefore, we do not expect strong market movements today. Main Rules of the Trading System: The strength of the signal is assessed based on the time it took to form (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored. In a flat, any pair can generate a plethora of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even. What the Charts Show: Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Read more: InstaForex

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on August 14? Simple Tips and Trade Review for Beginners Trade Review for Thursday:1H chart of the EUR/USD pairThe EUR/USD currency pair traded on Thursday with no notable movement. On the hourly TF, it is clear that for almost two weeks, the euro has been in the 1.1500-1.1582 range. We cannot call this range a "classic flat," but in fact it is exactly that. The market this week does not react to either important data or secondary data. Yesterday, the industrial production report in the European Union and the US Producer Price Index did not cause any market reaction. Earlier, the US inflation report was also ignored. The upward trend persists after the end of the monthly flat, but after a week of growth, the European currency again demonstrates its weakness, and the market — its unwillingness to move. Meanwhile, the question of Federal Reserve monetary tightening in September can probably be closed at least until September. In September, new inflation and labor market reports will be released, which may force traders to change their views. But right now there are no grounds for the Fed to raise the key rate. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair On the hourly timeframe, the price left the sideways channel it spent a month in and has been forming an upward trend that has, frankly, faded over the last two weeks. Taking into account all the events of recent months, we believe that the European currency should continue confident growth. In recent months, the market has been diligently ignoring many factors in favor of the euro, so we continue to expect it to move higher. On Friday, novice traders can open short positions with the target 1.1461-1.1474 if the price consolidates below the area 1.1527-1.1531. Long positions can be opened in case of a new bounce from the area 1.1527-1.1531, with targets at 1.1584-1.1594. However, volatility is very low right now. On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754. On Friday, the EU is scheduled to publish Q2 GDP, and in the US, retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. All three reports are unlikely to provoke strong movements. Main Rules of the Trading System: The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades are opened around a level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored. In a flat, any pair can generate a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even. What the Charts Show: Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement. Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. Read more: InstaForex

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for GBP/USD on August 14. Pound Sterling Is Closer to Collapse Analysis GBP/USD 5MThe GBP/USD currency pair also showed no notable movement on Thursday and has been standing still all week. The upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line, but it is clear that the upward impulse is weakening and has practically turned into a flat. Until the price consolidates below the trend line and the Senkou Span B line, we would not draw conclusions about the end of the upward trend. The US dollar still has no grounds for growth. Of course, this does not mean that the dollar cannot rise in principle, but in 2026 it has already used all growth factors. Some of them twice. Corrections are, of course, possible, but the pound sterling retains growth prospects, at least on technical grounds. In the long term, the upward trend that began back in 2022 remains.Yesterday the first and last reports of the week were published in the UK. GDP in Q2 was 0.4% as forecast, and industrial production decreased by 0.2%, which is unsurprising. The market reaction to these two events was a 15-pip drop. That is all you need to know about GBP/USD movements. In technical terms, the British pound continues to form an upward trend on the hourly TF. It should be recalled that, in the long run, the pair is in a sideways channel and can continue moving from the lower boundary to the upper. The area 1.3465–1.3488 serves as serious support for the pound, and slightly below it there is also the trend line. The US currency is likely to struggle to show growth in the near future. On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, one buy signal formed, but there was no point in trading it because market movement is still absent. Certainly, traders can open positions, but counting on profit now is extremely difficult. COT Report COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market, with sales for several consecutive months. The net position is negative despite the persistence of the long-term upward trend. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Geopolitics can support demand for the US dollar in the near term. However, until there is consolidation below the trend line, we would not expect a strong fall in the pair. In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as is clearly visible on the weekly TF. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the US currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price recently tested this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated August 4), the "Non-commercial" group closed 6,500 BUY contracts and 13,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 7,000 contracts. Analysis GBP/USD 1H On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. In the long term, both European currencies still "look" upward and have been trading within sideways channels for a full year. This does not cancel the upward trend that began back in 2022. For the pound sterling, we expect continued growth in the coming weeks. The upward trend will be interrupted if the price consolidates below the trend line. For August 14 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3471) and Kijun-sen (1.3508) lines may also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the stop-loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Read more: InstaForex

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on August 14. No Movements, the Market Is in a Coma Analysis EUR/USD 5MOn Thursday, August 13, the EUR/USD currency pair again showed no notable movement or volatility. In principle, the pair has not been moving at all this week. Even on Wednesday, when an important US Consumer Price Index was published, we saw no interesting movements. What can be said about other, less important reports and events and the market's reaction to them? For example, yesterday the European Union's industrial production report was published, which, as usual, came in worse than expected. There was no market reaction. The US Producer Price Index, which many experts consider an important indicator, showed a 0% reading, below forecasts and further reducing the probability of Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening in the foreseeable future. Market reaction — a 15-pip fall in the dollar. Traders are currently forced to be content with exactly such movements and such reactions. It is extremely difficult to earn on such movements even on lower TFs, because there are virtually no movements. In our view, the European currency retains a positive upward bias, but for it to continue, the market needs to wake up.In technical terms, the pair left the sideways channel 1.1362–1.1461 after a month of "walking through torment" and is now in an upward trend that threatens to turn into another flat. The European currency remains close to its local highs, but growth over the last week and a half has practically ceased. The dollar currently has no trumps in hand. It is only saved by the fact that it is the world's most popular currency, which, a priori, cannot fall every day. On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, one sell trading signal was formed that made no sense to trade, as with all signals this week, due to the lack of movement. COT Report The latest COT report is dated August 4. In the weekly TF illustration, it is clear that the net position of non-commercial traders has become "bearish" and has significantly decreased in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been disposing of the European currency in recent months in favor of the US dollar. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar has, for a while, acted as the "reserve currency." We still do not see any fundamental factors to strengthen the European currency, while there remain sufficient number of factors for the US currency to fall. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when this factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to normal. In the long term, the euro can fall as low as $1.08 (trend line), but the upward trend will remain relevant. And during the recent months of dollar growth, the pair did not approach that line too closely. The positions of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 3,100, and the number of shorts decreased by 17,500. Accordingly, the net position for the week increased by 14,400 contracts. Analysis EUR/USD 1H On the hourly timeframe, the pair maintains an upward trend, but in recent days it has been completely immobilized. The situation in the Middle East remains tense and is not improving, but this is no longer sufficient for a new, powerful rise in the dollar. In recent months, the market ignored all positive euro-related factors and focused only on Fed monetary policy, to which it made excessive demands. Now the veil is lifting from traders' eyes, so the European currency has every chance of medium-term growth. Read more: InstaForex

GBP/USD Pair Overview on August 14. Peace in the Middle East Is Impossible The GBP/USD currency pair traded again with low volatility on Thursday, which is absolutely unsurprising. Over the past eight days, total volatility exceeded 57 pips only once. Recall that for the pound sterling, 60 pips of volatility are roughly the same as 40 for the euro. We observe some movements, but they are extremely weak, and it is difficult to make a profit on any trades or from any trading signals.Without a doubt, the market cannot move cheerfully every day. In fact, most of the time is spent in periods of flat or low volatility, when the market is preparing for a new jump in one direction or the other. However, no trader likes "downtime." At present, the British currency has reached values at which it must either continue the upward trend that began at the end of June or form a new downward trend. What grounds are there for a new, powerful rise in the American currency? We believe none. Geopolitics can support the dollar only if the situation in the Middle East once again escalates to the brink, and the parties begin exchanging not only threats and accusations but concrete strikes regularly.Right now it is absolutely unclear what Tehran and Washington want to achieve. Both sides of the conflict demand so much that even Santa Claus could not satisfy their wishes. Negotiations are not being held. And if they are being held, they do not end with concessions, compromises, and agreements. And if they do end, the agreements are violated literally within the next few days. It seems that both Donald Trump and Tehran are quite satisfied with the current state of affairs. Trump intends to sit and wait for Iran to suffer economic collapse. Iran intends to sit and wait for Trump and the Republican Party to suffer defeat in the midterm Congressional elections. In essence, it is precisely the elections to the US Congress that are the point at which Tehran has no reason to move toward Washington. If Trump's party wins the elections and retains power in both chambers, Iran will have to make concessions if it truly wants to end the conflict and unblock its ports. If Trump's party is defeated, Washington will have to make concessions because the Democrats will block any new moves by Trump toward escalation with Iran. Therefore, we believe that at least until the beginning of November no serious changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will occur. The parties will continue exchanging insults without any desire to make concessions. Meanwhile, the US economy is slowing down, and the chances of monetary policy tightening are much greater for the Bank of England than for the Federal Reserve. It should also not be forgotten that Trump has resumed pressure on the central bank, again decided to fire Lisa Cook, and reminded Kevin Warsh that he expects a much lower key rate than at present. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 48 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "low." On Friday, August 14, we therefore expect movement within the range bounded by levels 1.3435 and 1.3531. The higher linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating a downward trend. The CCI indicator entered the overbought area twice, which may trigger a new downward retracement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3489 S2 – 1.3428 S3 – 1.3367 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3550 R2 – 1.3611 R3 – 1.3672 Trading recommendations: Read more: InstaForex

EUR/USD Pair Overview on August 14. Dollar Convulsions Continue The EUR/USD currency pair showed no notable movement on Thursday (as was the case on Wednesday, Tuesday, or Monday). It is enough to glance at the chart below to see that volatility remains low and the market is practically not reacting to what is happening in the world and the economy. This week, essentially, there was only one important event — the US inflation report. This report was supposed to tell the market what to expect from the Federal Reserve at the September meeting. And here, it is important to immediately and correctly understand what we expected from that report. Any report can be bland, boring, and uninteresting, or strong and resonant. Inflation in the U.S. this week was bland, as the actual value matched forecasts. However, did we see a strong market reaction to the resonant and no less important Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday? Recall that the total volatility that day was 63 pips, and the US dollar lost at best about 40 pips after the poor labor market data.Thus, the problem is not in the reports themselves or their values. The market has again entered a phase of low activity, so any events cannot move the price from a dead point. Since the Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation levels had practically no influence on the EUR/USD pair's movement, what can we say about other macroeconomic events, which obviously had a lesser degree of significance?Also note that movements can be weak but trending. Let's be honest: the Nonfarm Payrolls report implied a stronger dollar decline; the inflation report implied a dollar decline. Both reports significantly reduced the probability of a Fed monetary policy tightening at the September meeting. At that meeting, two months ago, the market was still confident — the Fed would raise the key rate. It is now clear that tightening monetary policy under the current circumstances is absolutely unreasonable. Suppose inflation begins to rise again, but what about the labor market, which has been falling for 4 months in a row? The Fed cut the key rate three times last year to support the US labor market. And it managed to do that — at the beginning of the year, Nonfarm Payrolls showed quite decent values. But what can you do if Donald Trump cannot sit still and does not live peacefully? A war with Iran began, and US macroeconomic indicators are again flying not in the direction that would correspond to the concept of "Make America Great Again." It is unlikely that with such a policy the verb "make" will ever turn into "made." The dollar, together with the euro, continues to show only one thing — convulsions. The market sometimes moves, sometimes stands still. And usually there is no correlation with fundamental, geopolitical, and macroeconomic events—pure randomness. On Wednesday, the pair showed a decline that should not have occurred; on Thursday — already a rise that also should not have occurred. The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of August 14 is 37 pips, which is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between the levels 1.1490 and 1.1564 on Friday. The higher linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating the preservation of the downward trend. The CCI indicator entered the overbought area and formed a "bearish" divergence, which warns of a possible downward retracement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1505 S2 – 1.1475 S3 – 1.1444 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1536 R2 – 1.1566 R3 – 1.1597 Trading recommendations: Read more: InstaForex

US military campaign against Iran cannot force hardline regime to give up Buyers of the euro, the pound sterling, and other risk assets are looking at future growth prospects with caution, favoring the US dollar as geopolitical tensions are once again causing serious concern. The US military campaign against Iran has so far failed to force the regime to capitulate, and Trump's administration is returning to a strategy of relying on crippling economic pressure. Facing shortages of needed munitions and fearing the continuation of an unpopular war, Trump and his senior officials are betting on a steady intensification of sanctions and a naval blockade to choke off oil exports. This is a notable change of course for an administration that just days earlier had threatened to ramp up the military campaign after nearly six months of war against Tehran. The new approach has been dubbed "Economic Fury," headed by Defense Secretary Scott Bessent. Trump himself recently expressed a similar view in an interview, saying that he does not attach much importance to the situation with Iran: "We're just watching Iran, given its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money." Bessent said a few weeks earlier, "The government is making people suffer, and we will continue to apply pressure." Some experts support the administration's logic, pointing to changed external conditions and arguing that because jurisdictions previously used to circumvent sanctions — including the UAE — are becoming far less hospitable to illicit financing and trade with Iran, and because global markets are reducing their reliance on Iranian goods, existing US sanctions are becoming much more effective. However, others oppose this theory, and historical experience speaks directly against it. The US has imposed sanctions on Iran, as it has on several other countries, for decades, yet this has not led to substantial political change; similar examples include North Korea and Cuba. There have so far been no tangible results across the main fronts. Tehran has not yielded on its nuclear program or on control of the Strait of Hormuz, which effectively remains closed as Iran issues ever-new demands for the waterway to be reopened. The White House recently said that sanctions and the naval blockade have left Iran in complete ruin, and that Trump has many levers he can deploy in the coming months, though it did not specify what those are. Economists and experts note that the key problem with the current strategy is that each next step is more costly than the previous one. As I noted above, buyers of risk assets are reacting to these changes right now. Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1540 level. Only that will allow them to target a test of 1.1560. From there, they could move up to 1.1580, but doing so without support from large players would be quite difficult. If the instrument falls, I expect any serious activity from large buyers only around 1.1515. If there is nobody there, it would be wise to wait for a new low at 1.1500 or to open long positions from 1.1480. As for the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3507. Only that will allow them to target 1.3541, above which it will be rather difficult to break through. The furthest target is the 1.3581 area. If the currency pair falls, bears will try to seize control of 1.3467. If they succeed, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to 1.3435 with the prospect of moving on to 1.3401. Read more: InstaForex

What to Pay Attention to on August 13? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:There are very few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Wednesday. To be precise, there is just one. Much has already been said about the U.S. inflation report, and the market is simply refusing to move until it understands how much inflation has slowed or accelerated in July. In our opinion, this information will not help traders draw conclusions about the Federal Reserve's decisions in September, as, first, the chances of policy tightening are minimal anyway given the disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls report. Secondly, inflation in the U.S. may slow down in July but increase in August.Analysis of Fundamental Events: Among the fundamental events on Thursday, only the speech by one of the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee members, Thomas Barkin, is notable. Barkin's comments, like those of other Fed representatives, may be significant in the near term, as the market needs to understand the central bank's current stance. Recent reports on the U.S. labor market have been mixed; inflation has slowed for the second consecutive time but remains quite high. On the one hand, the key rate needs to be raised; on the other hand, why if inflation is decreasing and the labor market is experiencing further difficulties? The more "dovish" comments we hear, the worse the situation for the dollar will become. We believe that the Fed will not tighten monetary policy in September. The geopolitical background still leaves much to be desired. The U.S. and Iran continue to exchange blows regularly; negotiations are currently not taking place, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia, and Tehran threatens to fully close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington tries to exert pressure on it again. The market does not believe Donald Trump's statements, and Iran now prefers to negotiate with Oman rather than the U.S. Tehran has presented a list of demands to Washington that are necessary for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump is unlikely to comply with them. General Conclusions: During the penultimate trading day of the week, currency pairs may again trade quite sluggishly, as even yesterday's inflation report failed to stir the market. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1527-1.1531, and the British pound from the area of 1.3456-1.3476. Main Rules of the Trading System: The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even. What the Charts Show: Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement. Read more: InstaForex

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on August 13? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners Analysis of Wednesday's Trades:1H Chart of the GBP/USD PairThe GBP/USD pair showed no movement on Wednesday that was anticipated. After the release of the U.S. inflation report, the British pound began to rise as the likelihood of a further tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy diminished. However, just a few hours later, the U.S. dollar began to strengthen, for reasons that are quite difficult to explain. By the end of the day, the American currency had risen minimally, so it cannot be said that the market reversed and a downward trend began to form. However, the British pound did not show growth where it easily could have. Over the past two weeks, the pair has been rising quite weakly, but the upward trend remains, as indicated by the ascending channel. A price consolidation below it will indicate the end of the upward trend, but it is unclear what will drive the dollar higher next. Currently, there is no geopolitical, fundamental, or macroeconomic support for the U.S. dollar. Of course, this does not mean that the British pound will now grow constantly and every day, but the dollar can currently only expect corrections. 5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Wednesday. There were no grounds for beginners to open trades yesterday. On Thursday morning, the price is near 1.3456-1.3476, so one or more signals may form throughout the day. However, volatility is likely to remain low again. How to Trade on Thursday: On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward trend. In our view, the British pound should continue to rise, even if local factors do not provide support. On the weekly timeframe, the movement from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary continues. And this movement is not completed. The market's confidence in a rate hike by the Fed in September is evaporating, as recent U.S. macroeconomic data has been weak. Only a consolidation below the ascending channel on the hourly timeframe could allow the dollar to expect growth. On Thursday, novice traders can open short positions if consolidation occurs below the 1.3456-1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. Long positions can be opened targeting 1.3587-1.3598 if the price rebounds today from the 1.3456-1.3476 area. On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done at the following levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695. On Thursday, the UK will release GDP data for the second quarter and industrial production data for June. In the U.S., the producer price index will be published. We believe that the market's reaction to these releases will be weak. Main Rules of the Trading System: The strength of the signal is assessed based on the time it took to form (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored. In a flat, any pair can generate a plethora of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even. What the Charts Show: Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. Read more: InstaForex