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🔠🔠🔠 US CPI Preview (July) – Today The US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due out today. Markets expect headline CPI to rise around 0.1–0.2% month-over-month (following last month’s 0.4% decline), with the annual rate easing to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, with the annual rate cooling to 2.5%. Overall, the report should be enough to keep the Fed in wait-and-see mode. On one hand, recent Apple price hikes could push core goods prices higher, but this is expected to be offset by softer services components like airfares, accommodation, and auto insurance. Energy is also expected to weigh on the headline number due to falling gasoline prices. The data matters for shaping expectations ahead of the September Fed meeting, though it’s not the final data point before that decision. The dominant market mood is “gradual disinflation” rather than a big shock. If the print comes in-line or softer than expected, the dollar should weaken while stocks and gold rally (on higher odds of a September rate cut). If it comes in hotter, especially on core, the dollar should strengthen while stocks and gold face pressure. The main risk is an upside surprise in core CPI.

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