CryptoMike Market Insights

Crypto Market Overview 📍 Another devastating week has passed. The crypto market declined, producing weak bounces. Over the weekend, we saw an attempt at recovery and even a breakout of $87,500, which I didn't expect. STRK fell and logically joined the dynamics of other Layer-2 networks. I'll note the surge in HBAR (+14%), the project is alive and I pointed out in one of the previous reviews that on a bounce - this would be a good choice for purchases. ZCASH (ZEC) many have already started to bury, but buyers quickly took the market into their own hands. So far, everything is very good for ZEC. ✔️ TradFi An interesting remark was made by US Treasury Secretary Bessent that it's not tariffs now, but the rising cost of services that is accelerating inflation - and this is true, but the Fed is starting to understand this too. To summarize the week, expectations of a Fed rate cut were one of the main triggers of the week. And there were two main factors: the publication of Nonfarm Payroll for November will be on December 16, meaning the Fed won't be able to take it into account in their decision, which significantly reduced the probability of a rate cut in December, and then on Friday, Fed member Williams spoke with a comment that the rate will be cut after all, and that's what drove risk appetite on Friday. Pretty weak conditions for a return to growth, it must be admitted. Keep in mind that leverage in stocks is huge and if the market collapses, it won't be 3-4% down, but much more. Regarding Venezuela, the US is trying to avoid or postpone a military conflict, but it's very difficult to forecast anything here yet. For the US, it's important to remove Maduro, not launch missiles. ✔️News Grayscale is actively pushing Chainlink and released a major report painting beautiful prospects for the token. I reviewed it, quite convincing. LINK is one of the few tokens bringing real utility to the industry, not just "let's launch another ETF." ✔️ Base Case Scenario A CME gap (Chicago exchange) has now formed from Friday and it will obviously be closed on Monday, so a return to $84,600 is the most likely scenario. ETH hit a thick orderblock at $2,860 - $2,880. Here the base scenario is a return to $2,760. ✔️ What to Long Today AAVE, PENDLE, HYPE, CRV - my favorites for this bounce. They won't show crazy dynamics, but they'll definitely recover behind BTC, and faster than the old man. ✔️Idea for Today Long LPT when reaching $3.978 Move stop to breakeven when reaching $4.125 Stop-loss: $3.852 Take-profit: $4.236 Not financial advice.

Crypto Market Overview 📍 Today is Veterans Day in the US, the debt market is closed while the stock market is operating. This is a paradoxical moment when there should be more liquidity in the stock and crypto markets on a holiday than usual. But the market decided otherwise: S&P continued moving up, while BTC is declining again and lost ~3% for the day. The second important point is BTC dominance - if you look at higher timeframes, there's rather a reversal with divergences on popular indicators. A significant increase in BTC dominance in the medium term is usually accompanied either by a fall in the crypto market as a whole, or by BTC growth on certain events, such as the ETF launch. But right now there are no major news on the horizon that would specifically support BTC. And this trend raises serious concerns. It's a strange day, and the current dynamics are largely unclear to me now. By 16:00 (UTC 0), the current movement looked like closing the CME gap from Friday to Monday. But now BTC has already fallen below this gap, broken through several significant supports, collected a lot of liquidity, and is likely already heading to the $102,000 - $102,400 zone - a very thick zone in terms of liquidity, and from there there's a high probability of a bounce. In any case, it's unlikely that after such a 3% decline, anyone waiting for $108,000 is still in BTC - also a thick level that they could hardly take in one go. As a result, we now see how BTC pierced $107,300, then couldn't consolidate there and rapid selloff. And it was precisely this level that indicated a break of the downward trend. The situation is called: "buying is scary, so I'll buy lower." There's no trace left of yesterday's growth in TRUMP and MELANIA, meme coins are returning to old levels - pure manipulation. In UNI, after 100% growth in 7 days on objectively good news, a noticeable correction has begun. In ZEC, a real drop has finally started. ETFs were quiet yesterday: BTC ETF: -$12M | ETH ETF: $0M ✔️ TradFi The picture is becoming clearer: the US Senate passed a bill overnight to resume government operations (albeit temporary). It remains for the House, and tomorrow there will be a vote and the end of the shutdown, since it's enough for Republicans to vote for this initiative. The ADP labor market report, which is being watched now in the absence of Nonfarm Payroll, turned out to be weak, which increases the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. ✔️News dYdX is canceling fees for coin makers and takers. On November 17, the sale of MON token (Monad project on Coinbase) will begin. This is one of the largest ICOs this fall. ✔️ Base Case Scenario Wait for $102,000 - $102,400, watch the reaction to this level and make a decision. If the bounce is weak, we could see the market below $101,300 as soon as tomorrow, since the first cluster of stop accumulation is below this level, the next one is already below $100,000. But we're more likely to see a halt in the decline, at least temporarily. In ETH, reaching $3,400 is the base scenario and an interesting option to try a long with a tight stop. ✔️ What to Long Today Today, mainly various trash that will fall by dozens of percent in a few hours or a couple of days is growing well. Wait for good levels to buy. ✔️ Long ETH was closed at stop loss. ✔️Idea for Today Long BTC when reaching $102,030 Move stop to breakeven when reaching $103,800 Stop-loss: $101,070 Take-profit: $105,190 Not financial advice.

Crypto Market Overview 📍 Blood and tears on the tape today. A lot of people lost money. Don’t tilt. Don’t try to win it back instantly if you’re down. Use stops. Today’s dump looks on-chain + psychological (crowd liquidations). If there were extra catalysts, we’ll learn post-factum. BTC is notably cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance, which leaves some hope for the Asian session. ✔️ TradFi The S&P is down ~1%—hardly the trigger for what we’re seeing in crypto. ✔️ Base Case Should you buy anything right now? It’s smarter to wait for clearer reversal signals. That said, crypto often delivers meaningful bounces after flushes, and odds of a tradable rebound are non-zero. BTC targets: Modest: $102,800 Next: $105,300 If we leg lower: watch $98,200 for a likely reaction. ✔️ What to long (if you believe in a bounce) Stick to large caps and cash-flow/real-yield names: BTC, ETH, AAVE, PENDLE, LINK. ✔️ Position update JELLYJELLY short hit take-profit. BTC long hit take-profit. ✔️ Idea of the Day Long ETH • Move stop to breakeven at $3,300 • Stop-loss: $3,119 • Take-profit: $3,438 Not financial advice.

Crypto Market Overview 📍 Today was a day of pure disappointment across markets. Crypto is sliding fast, S&P is red, and the dollar is strengthening against this backdrop. Today’s chaos agent was the memecoin JELLYJELLY with a market cap of ~$150M. Trading volume just on Binance futures topped $500M. Recall: the token was removed from Hyperliquid after a blatant manipulation by one player. Since August the token is up ~1000%, and +98% in the last 48 hours, yet it’s still trading below the price at which Binance listed its futures. The old token FLM (Flamingo) is being delisted from several exchanges, which explains those wild spikes and dumps. Better not touch it right now. There’s no real idea there anymore — just manipulation. The Flamingo project is basically dead. ✔️ TradFi If we sum up the Fed right now: the key is QT is ending, i.e. more liquidity for markets. Overall, the meeting was net positive for risk assets despite the price reaction. Liquidity higher, rate cut, a question mark over a December cut, and they said they will act data-dependently — and we will get data before December, because a government shutdown can’t last forever. The Trump–Xi meetings can be called moderately positive. One of the reasons for today’s selloff: big tech earnings showed huge AI spending, and investors don’t see the payback yet. ✔️ Base Case BTC once again hit a high-liquidity level, but it’s hard to believe that was it and we won’t see another leg down toward $104,800. ETH, on the other hand, has cleaned up almost all nearby levels — only $3,640 is untouched. Current levels are not reliable for spot buys. But today’s bounce could see follow-through tomorrow. ✔️ What looks long today There was heavy volume in BANK, so a continued bounce there after a long downtrend looks quite realistic. ✔️ Position update BCH short hit stop. CATI short hit stop. ✔️ Idea of the Day Short JELLYJELLY • Move stop to breakeven at $0.121 • Stop-loss: $0.16797 • Take-profit: $0.09339 Forecast from GPT-Degen Long BTC • Move stop to breakeven at 108,550 • Stop-loss: 106,380 • Take-profit: 110,200 • Risk per trade: 5% of the account Not financial advice.

Crypto Market Overview 📍 Today, many who went long on Monday got a chance to exit with small losses—but the downtrend persists. BTC neatly tapped the fattest liquidity zone—the area with the largest 20-day volumes—and then rolled over again. Meanwhile, positive TradFi signals have been ignored for a second day. On BNB, an interesting tell: when BTC and ETH started rising (after the U.S. cash open), BNB kept falling—right up until the CZ headline hit. Even here we saw long squeezes and clear manipulation vibes. A bit of tinfoil: after BNB’s move, WLFI (a token tied to the Trump family’s company) popped ~20%. It’s also fascinating to watch prediction markets with Polymarket and Kalshi (there was even an NHL ad launch story yesterday). Demand looks insane—see the chart 👆—and many are expecting/farming a Polymarket token. My view: early users may get a meaningful slice, but farming now is way too late. EVAA looks broken; after one more bounce attempt, we likely see a sharp leg down. ETF flows (muted so far): BTC ETFs: –$101M ETH ETFs: –$19M ✔️ TradFi Spotlight on oil: new sanctions on Russia and the Venezuela angle (the U.S. may get tougher). Still, prices are around mid-2021 levels, and it feels like Iran/Middle East supply plus China’s huge reserves can offset near-term tightness—so energy-driven U.S. inflation pressure may be premature to call. ✔️ News Missed this yesterday: Coinbase’s CEO said Base will soon enable private stablecoin transactions using Iron Fish ZK proofs, hiding amounts and addresses with “read-only access” for authorities. Kinda funny: “private” but viewable by authorities 💀—and if authorities can access it, others might too. AAVE announced a $50M/year buyback program—not huge, but could support the token over the long run. ✔️ Base Case Today leans short. The bounce doesn’t inspire confidence. Near-term targets I expect the market to hit: BTC: $105,800–$106,200 ETH: $3,640–$3,680 ✔️ What looks long today No compelling longs from current levels. Position update: UNI long: small green (closing manually). LPT long: breakeven. FARTCOIN long: breakeven. ✔️ Forecast from GPT-Base Short BCH (on a tag of 493.00) • Move stop to breakeven at 485.50 • Stop-loss: 500.50 • Take-profit: 478.00 My idea: Short CATI • Move stop to breakeven at 0.07592 • Stop-loss: 0.08825 • Take-profit: 0.06577 Not financial advice.

Crypto Market Overview 📍 Today’s selloff was ruthless. We sliced through multiple support levels where a reversal could’ve formed. This drop was a bit different: heavy selling started early, not just during the U.S. session. In fact, the U.S. was net buying today. With a market this fickle, how do you build rules? If we dump several U.S. sessions in a row, should we expect the next one to be green? 😐 Zcash privacy usage is surging: the shielded pool (the part of the network where transactions are hidden) now holds 4.39M ZEC—+27%. A big driver is the Zashi wallet: since late August, users swapped about $40M through it, signaling growing privacy demand in crypto. Zashi downloads: 17,100 on iOS and 25,500 on Android. The roadmap includes Ledger hardware wallet integration, and the team was refreshed. Takeaways: ZEC clearly has a development/popularity trend, but it’s still weak—the latest pump feels like an advance on future progress. The market likely overpriced it, latching onto the strongest news flow. ETF flows (yesterday): BTC ETFs: –$536M ETH ETFs: –$57M ✔️ TradFi Talks with China are in the air. In classic Trump fashion, to “increase the odds” of a deal he added to the already 100% tariffs—now 150% from Nov 1—while saying he could delay the date. Investors get the game, so they’re watching for Bessent’s meeting with a Chinese representative and largely ignored the fresh threats. S&P downgraded France; expect potential pressure on Monday’s European session. Key risk on the radar: a potential U.S. banking issue—lots of chatter—but that’s what stops are for. ✔️ News Uniswap web app to add Solana support. French regulators are expanding crypto AML inspections. ✔️ Base Case BTC, ETH, SOL bounced off thick liquidity zones; the move scooped up a ton of liquidations and stops. On Coinbase, BTC and many tokens dropped harder than last week. Last time, Binance harvested liquidations; this time Coinbase did. Base case: a strong rebound from here. Buying now makes sense, and the current structure makes stop placement convenient. The primary trigger: signs of a U.S.–China agreement. ✔️ What looks long today DeFi and the Solana ecosystem—the network keeps showing resilience on every flush. Position update: STG long hit stop. PENDLE short reached take-profit. UNI long is open and slightly green. ✔️ Ideas of the Day Long FARTCOIN • Move stop to breakeven at $0.3846 • Stop-loss: $0.3452 • Take-profit: $0.4087 Long LPT • Move stop to breakeven at $5.20 • Stop-loss: $4.574 • Take-profit: $5.420 Not financial advice.

Crypto Market Overview 📍 The crypto market is rolling over after a spirited rebound. Overhead resistance zones have formed, several tokens filled prior imbalances, and a wide range/chop is taking shape. ZEC and BANK have stalled. I’m not rushing into shorts on these yet. People are hunting for culprits who profited on the dump. A widely circulated story pins a Hyperliquid wallet to Garret Jin, ex-CEO of the now-closed BitForex. The media picked it up, but the claim doesn’t pass the sniff test: if you were an insider, would you really open a >$1B BTC short on a fully transparent DEX? There are quieter ways to do it. Meanwhile, even CZ (ex-Binance) helped spread those rumors on socials—pretty clearly to deflect attention from Binance’s own missteps and redirect community anger. ETF flows (Mon): BTC ETFs: –$327M ETH ETFs: –$429M ✔️ TradFi In yesterday’s remarks, Fed Chair Powell signaled one more rate cut this year and a wind-down of QT. Trump is trying for a second straight day to cheer markets—so far, conviction is thin. The AI bubble narrative is everywhere: BofA’s investor survey says the AI bubble tops investors’ fears, even more than inflation. Fears of a trade war are notably lower than in spring. Futures now price a 91–92% chance of a Fed cut by late October. ✔️ News CME Group is launching SOL and XRP options. ✔️ Base Case I still expect range-bound consolidation for a while—lower volatility here is logical. Many traders extrapolated the recent chaos into either an imminent moonshot or another crash. My base case is sideways near current levels, vol drifting down, with upside into late October. Tactically: short near intraday highs, long near local lows—classic range trading is what the market is offering. ✔️ What looks long today Gradually accumulating larger, vetted projects at current prices for a medium-term view makes sense. Position check: STG long is open and in profit. PENDLE short (from GPT-Degen) is open and in profit. ✔️ Idea of the Day Long UNI on a tag of $6.077 • Move stop to breakeven at $6.69 • Stop-loss: $5.543 • Take-profit: $7.028 Not financial advice.

Given the abnormal volatility and an unusually distorted market, it didn’t make sense to expect great calls from AI. We’re now resuming our Human vs AI-Agent Tournament. Forecast from GPT-Degen Short PENDLE (limit if price tags $3.66) Move stop to breakeven at $3.52 Stop-loss: $3.84 Take-profit: $3.30 Risk per trade: 7% of the account Not financial advice.

Crypto Market Overview 📍 Today we’re seeing a market rebound—but the foundation still looks shaky. Trump did his usual “drop a bomb then step back” routine. ❗️ He posted a “things will be fine” message, and right after that BTC and the broader market turned up. The timing lines up almost perfectly. You can agree with Arthur Hayes that a lot of what we just saw was panic and manipulation. Those 80–90% crash targets? Unlikely to be revisited anytime soon. Let’s dig in. After combing through dozens of charts from yesterday’s flush, I found some more interesting ones than what I shared before. ATOM dislocations: • Binance spot briefly hovered near $0. • Bybit spot low was > $1.50. • Futures lows: $1.055 on Binance, $1.438 on Bybit. • Hyperliquid looked similar to Bybit with a ~$1.429 low. • On Coinbase, ATOM never dropped below $2.87. This pattern (no crazy wicks on many alts at Coinbase) repeated across multiple names. There’s a plausible “attack on Binance” thesis. Margin collateral could be USDe; its price on Binance collapsed after ~just under $100M in sell pressure, triggering liquidations on positions collateralized with USDe and accelerating the market-wide dump. The USDe chart backs this up. 👆 This also fits the WLFI selloff coming ahead of tariff headlines: it dumped before Trump’s tariff talk, then followed the market with another leg down. A token linked to the Trump family was aggressively sold well in advance—hard not to call that insider-ish. IOTX and ENJ even printed negative prices on Binance spot. 👆 Amid all that noise, BNB completely retraced the drop—none of the other large caps did anything similar. ✔️ TradFi China’s Ministry of Commerce (in short): China will defend its trade position and respond to U.S. tariffs with its own measures. It won’t roll back restrictions on rare earths—i.e., won’t supply them for military or dual-use production. That’s a serious headwind. As soon as Monday, we could see concrete steps from China (tariffs, restrictions, etc.). Most likely this standoff ends with the U.S. softening and postponing the Nov 1 tariffs. Rare earths are a powerful lever for China, and markets will have to respect that. Expect some tension to linger. ✔️ News Many are pointing at a Golden Cross on BTC—often followed by strong uptrends. A quick refresher: a Golden Cross is when a short-term moving average (e.g., 50-day) crosses up through a long-term one (e.g., 200-day). It’s a bullish signal suggesting a possible trend reversal to the upside. ✔️ Base Case For many alts, we likely saw the bottom—but it’s so far below spot that it’s not a practical level to anchor stops. For SOL, ETH, BTC, there are still small question marks. My base case: range-building around current levels, then a push on the FOMC if/when the Fed cuts rates. That’s the cleanest path today. Yesterday I mentioned potential support retests lower for SOL, ETH, and a lot of alts. That’s healthy—an explosive V-reversal would be worse. A long structure is starting to form. ✔️ What looks long today Buying the BTC ecosystem now seems late—CAKE is already up 30%+ today. Focus on DeFi, especially the larger caps. If S (SONIC) revisits $1.80, that’s an attractive buy idea. ✔️ Idea of the Day Long STG on a tag of $0.1634 • Move stop to breakeven at $0.175 • Stop-loss: $0.1558 • Take-profit: $0.1836 Not financial advice.