Monica___K

Why so silent? Serving clients, and very fine day of long ES and short gold gains! "PPI Impact" CPI turned out no disaster, and having come in line with expectation, validated my outlook of not being fearful of Tuesday‘s weakness. Bulls though disappeared right after the opening bell, so the right kind of question is what (if any) technical damage was done, and how to approach the setup (I called for another grind higher premarket by the way) going into PPI from swing and intraday trading perspectives.

Clients were ready for CPI, and not fearing yesterday's heavy selling within ES, NQ. SPY 770 was simply likely to hold.

And clients served another winning call - long ES, and it's pulled up nicely after the opening bell.

... clients knew to expect pullback in stocks...

"Job Market and Broadening Rally" Thursday‘s correction could have reached farther, and it was already then that tech outperformed S&P 500 as it didn‘t fall apart before the closing bell the way the 500-strong index did. Friday‘s data significantly boosted Sep no hike odds, yet the intraday trap to shake off weak longs was strong, and path in equities higher far from straightforward. Breadth broadened and tech was supposed to lead, and to complete the retail trap, it did nott early in the session. Still, the macro turn reasserted itself (Warsh will have no way to be as hawkish as his positions might lead some to assume), and it was possible to profit on that as QQQ came to perform better than SPY on closing basis (illustration thereof, why I was leaning towards Nasdaq that day). Next week, we‘ll get CPI and PPI, and if these corroborate the „inflation peaked“ theme (paper oil price isn‘t as menacing as physical inventories are), then… anyway, jobs data led to broadening in the rally, with materials, discretionaries and industrials doing well (and dollar of course not standing in the way). (full article has 5 charts with commentaries)

(clients were again on the right side, took 4 attempts to really go and bring again daily profit.... short NQ) "Rushed In Long?" Too many investors probably aren‘t, and hard to blame them in Tuesday‘s steady buying. I didn‘t forecast the upswing to go on yesterday, and prices reversed lower, is it enough, arguably enough? Not that the much awaited SNDK earnings would add to risk appetite, so the only hefty move we saw, was in precious metals.

(after Mon and Tue free articles...) "That’s a Breakout" Not yielding an inch, indices sprang higher right after the opening bell yesterday. It was more clear in case of ES that there wouldn‘t be a breakdown below any premarket support level, but it was Nasdaq that delivered true strength, and it was beyond MAGS. With software pulling clearly higher, it was particularly that broadening in tech (where semis and DRAM participated) that changed the picture intraday, allowing for a really one-sided session yesterday. As said last week, Thursday was a well-timed reversal higher, Friday underwhelmed (bringing up thoughts of more than typical retracement), and Monday retired that rollover notion – and yesterday was a most clear continuation, with us facing either repeat of yesterday‘s rip after the opening bell, or a bit of a retreat first to push higher later – still before SNDK earnings, which will be very volatile for all of tech except MAGS, to simplify.

(Did I say clients got the tech long exit at the top? Get all my real-time thoughts in time...) "Bottom In?" How likely was that following post-FOMC smashing, that the very notion of QQQ bottom being in, could be contemplated one day later? Clients caught the tech upswing reasonably early in the European session, and that was (not just) based on the Asian session performance. Interestingly, there was no dip yesterday on strong day of yen appreciation – not even in precious metals that are about to present a major opportunity themselves soon – new month is starting, so do yourself a favor and benefit from all my real-time thoughts and 1:1 support if you aren‘t already.

Very fine client gains in this bullish tech turnaround... NQ QQQ NDX

Clients were fully ready for today's NQ rally since mid-European session... were you too? "Extreme Volatility and Rally" Volatility on FOMC day, and the intial part of seeing (major) weakness rule across indices into FOMC, only to be followed by a relief rally. This one developed from reasonably oversold (not extremely oversold) readings of QQQ above my target of 660, tech bounced from above 663 already. No hike FOMC as predicted, and decent speech from risk-takers‘ perspective, but the bid evaporated way too soon after the Warsh speech was over. QQQ 660 was tested, and now prices are rallying, following an interesting QQQ:SPY move yesterday. Today‘s game plan is already with clients, are you rushing to short?

And undershoot of yesterday's lows, solid reversal well before FOMC, and no real fear striking ES NQ.... till MSFT, META earnings perhpas :) Do you see tech leading SPX in the bump higher too? Shared with clients as events unfolded, and more.

(clients got their short NQ profits already) "Charting Volatility Ahead" The weekly Nasdaq plan talked Sunday is unfolding well, so what am I expecting for today‘s FOMC and crucial tech earnings? Will MSFT and META meet similar fate as GOOGL did, and what is that going to do to tech and S&P 500? Let‘s recap as I did foe clients already, and look ahead.

Bearish tech bias premarket gains, necessity to sidestep the intraday bump, and then prices again rolling lower in NQ QQQ...

"Tech Bottom?" Sunday bullish gap didn‘t last long, and retail wasn‘t sucked in off the opening bell – or is it that the lurry of selling was so overwhelming? Hundreds of NQ points knocked off just like that, no retracement – those larger TF implications talked on the weekend (and as regards the shorting vehicle of choice, tech), worked mercilessly. At the same time, straight down isn‘t a pattern… (full article has 2 charts with commentaries)

"What’s Wrong With Tech" Friday unfolded quite similarly to the day before – premarket resilience in Nasdaq gave way for another bout of selling that came soon after the opening bell, undershooting my target and recovering from there (fine place to go short), and then continue down in a fresh challenge of intraday lows. The hyperscalers vs. semis and memory seesaw continued, and this time around, it were the rising capex winners that got under pressure while behemoths paused. High yield corporate bonds also paused, so was Friday just about positioning for hot Mideast weekend? Certainly the Saudi Arabia strikes caught many by surprise, but as I predicted the weekend before major escalation, so I did throughout the week as regards rising oil price and dips serving the purpose of getting bought. (full article has 5 charts with commentaries)

https://x.com/Monica___K/status/2080631881964396660

...and that semis and memory are the ones to be rewarded, not the spenders. NQ NDX QQQ MAGS