Markets, Distilled by 0xCattaco 🌮

On Google's Leapfrog in the AI Race 1) It's still to early to tell if Google is the clear winner in the AI race both in the chip and LLM stack > LLMs are taking turns to leapfrog each other. Distribution is more crucial, favouring Google, Meta and still OpenAI (with its 800 million MAUs) > We are seeing specialisation in use cases for specific models (e.g., Grok for current events and images, Anthropic for enterprise and coding assistance, Gemini for research, ChatGPT for conversational search) 2) OpenAI is caught between a rock and a hard place by Gemini's overwhelming launch > Push for profitability through ads and risk degrading the user experience > or delay monetisation and fall further behind a competitor with nearly unlimited resources 🔗 https://substack.com/home/post/p-180854261

Weekend Lookahead: 4/5 Oct 2025 Macro Events - Oct 6 @ 17:00 UTC+8 - U.S Retail Sales - Oct 9 @ 03:00 UTC+8 - U.S FOMC Minutes - Oct 9 @ 20:30 UTC+8 - U.S Initial Jobless Claims / Powell Speech - Oct 10 @ 22:00 UTC+8 - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Readings: 1) Lynn Alden: Precious Metals and Commodities Update 2) How to avoid value traps in Asia 3) From UOB to Haw Par: Wee Cho Yaw’s Business Empire Podcasts / Interviews: 1) ITK With Cathie Wood: US Government Shutdown 2) The Week in Charts: Markets Are Partying Like It's 1999 3) In Conversation: Ray Dalio and Ng Kok Song 4) Are robots already here (Chinese Robotics) @MarketsDistilled | @ForexDistilled

Lynn Alden: Precious Metals and Commodities Update Bitcoin: > $BTC had a sell-off in late Sep, largely attributed to its correlation with global liquidity, specifically the domestic liquidity drain caused by the Treasury refilling its cash account back to $800B. > $BTC likely hasnt topped as there are no major signs of speculative froth in the bitcoin market. High premiums for bitcoin treasury companies have decreased considerably in recent weeks + MVRV Z-score well below 2022 highs. Precious Metals & Commodities > $XAU remaining in overbought status for unusually long periods of time is not unreasonable. > We’re going through major long-term changes (the end of a four-decade structurally declining interest rate cycle, a global shift in sovereign interest from US Treasuries to gold around the margins in an increasingly multi-polar world, and persistent US fiscal dominance which fuels the attractiveness of hard assets). Equities > The S&P 500 priced in $USD is pretty close to its ATHs, but priced in gold it remains below its Dotcom-bubble peak. > Market valuations by many metrics are the highest they’ve ever been (such as the Mcap to GDP ratio or by cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio) > During fiscal dominance, asset bubbles can persist longer than one might expect, because the currency itself is part of the bubble. When the denominator itself is weakening rather persistently, the numerator (prices of assets) can levitate and find a new higher equilibrium. Current Opportunities > Equities: Certain US value sectors (e.g. financials) are cheap, as are emerging markets (e.g. Brazilian and Chinese equities are quietly doing well this year from a very low base). > Commodities: Energy-related commodities are out-of-favor now. The gold-to-oil ratio is the highest it has ever been outside of March 2020 when the global economy basically shut off. > Oilfield services and drillship owners as interesting places to deploy capital. Mentioned tickers - Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Haliburton (NYSE: HAL), and Valaris (NYSE: VAL) @MarketsDistilled | @ForexDistilled

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC grants Polymarket approval to operate crypto prediction markets in the US. 📰 Full Story @WatcherGuru

How much is your "life-changing money"? https://x.com/2lambro/status/1962390710944166044?s=46&t=UGoU8GYC6C6EmLjqLj17wA

Spending money wisely on life upgrades https://x.com/kashdhanda/status/1961776649495617871?s=46&t=UGoU8GYC6C6EmLjqLj17wA

https://x.com/banditxbt/status/1961752716926980217

Former Polymarket And Kalshi Team Raise $15M From Union Square And Coinbase To Build An Onchain, Permissionless, And Regulated Prediction Market: Blockworks 🔗 velo.xyz

Hyperbeat - Building blocks for tokenised funding rates > dnTokens represent tokenized delta-neutral positions on Hyperliquid, enabling new financial products with improved capital efficiency and risk isolation while building on Hyperbeat USDT's $120 million in stablecoins. > hbUSDT functions as a master vault that allocates funds to top-yielding strategies across HyperCore and HyperEVM, shifting between funding rate-based dnTokens, DeFi protocols like Hyperlend, or HIP-3 vaults based on market conditions. > Hyperliquid's funding rates provide a scalable yield source for composable DeFi, with Hyperbeat tokenizing them as foundational elements to drive global financial innovation and real-world applications. https://x.com/degennQuant/status/1960052455124975627 ———— 5M cap filled up real quick, cap should be raised by team soon https://app.hyperbeat.org/earn?referral=EBAB3A55

According to Bloomberg, Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto are in talks with potential backers to raise about $1 billion to acquire Solana (SOL), which would mark the largest treasury dedicated to the token. Cantor Fitzgerald is acting as the…

So far on the Fed chopping block: 1. Trump fires Fed Governor Cook 2. Fed Governor Kugler resigns "without explanation" 3. Trump appoints Fed Governor Miran 4. Trump calls to "fire Fed Chair Powell" 10+ times 5. Trump says new Fed Chair pick is "coming soon" 2026 is going to be a wild year. (@TheKobeissiLetter)

TOM LEE'S BITMINE BOUGHT $2.2B OF ETHEREUM OVER THE PAST WEEK: PRESS RELEASE 🔗 velo.xyz

According to Bloomberg, Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto are in talks with potential backers to raise about $1 billion to acquire Solana (SOL), which would mark the largest treasury dedicated to the token. Cantor Fitzgerald is acting as the lead banker for the deal. — link