Markets View - Shivaji

They said "Hedge Funds can’t do 3 digits". Now we have the "Simply Lovely Moment" 😀 for the 1st time ever in our Fund management, achieved in less than 1 year. Here we Go !!! "Samarth Global Hedge Fund" is Up 110% in 9 months. Dreamed it. Built it. Delivered it. Let the numbers talk. #Samarth #GlobalFund

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#Nifty has reclaimed the 24,000+ crossing short term resistance zone 23850-900 zone, and several sectors are now approaching significant 2-year breakouts. Selective themes have the potential to deliver 25–30% upside over the next 9–12 months post sustained breakout. Globally, markets such as the US and Europe have already moved to fresh all-time highs, while Indian equities continue to lag by nearly 10–12%. Historically, such phases are often followed by a catch-up rally with a slight lag of a few months. Markets reward patience before they reward participation. The current environment demands conviction, discipline, and confidence to navigate short-term uncertainty while remaining focused on long-term opportunities. We continue to remain constructive on the medium-term outlook and believe our funds are well positioned to outperform broader benchmarks in the coming quarters. We are optimistic about surpassing previous peak NAVs across all our funds, and a decisive move above 26,400 on Nifty could mark the beginning of the next structural bull market phase and we will come up with our own numbers in next 12-18months. I will continue to take a break from social media for the next couple of months. In case of any meaningful market developments or trend reversals, I will certainly share my thoughts. Wishing everyone all the very best ahead. #SamarthwealthManagement

Blessed with Baby Boy. I would be away from social media for few months due to child care and other family responsibilities 🙏

When everyone waits for exact level to hit on index and wait for stocks to buy at index level, it does not work that way. Stocks should be bought/sold based on their trend. NIFTY is not the barometer for all stocks. Nifty is falling while many stocks breaking out too.

All stocks won't top or bottom with Nifty Period

#Nifty 2023 = 2026 15180->18800->16800->18800 21800->26400->23300->26400 #Fractal

At extreme RSI levels people have extreme opinions and miss the biggest rally #Nifty 2016-2023-2026

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https://x.com/i/status/2021666432824881232

As a fund manager I would like to have following criteria while investing/trading. Let me know what are your key points. 1. Invest in stocks which are Highly liquid ,widely held and good spread for trades with easy exit/entry during panic/opportunity. Hence I avoid 90% of Small/Midcaps due to liquidity issues. 2. Pick 4-6 sectors atleast with good relative strength to outperform on either side. (Concentrated than extremely diversified) 3. Maximum allocation to top 4 sectors (Sector Rotation) 4. Pick the best setup from each sector considering individual stock weightage 5. Rotate/switch sectors when the rally gets matured, thereby maximizing outcome. 6. Technical turn around as 1st priority which reflects flow of smart money then back it up with fundamentals (Reverse order). At times fundamentals can lag and stock rallies before fundamentals picks up. 7. Look for liquid options in the same stocks to hedge for any event or when leveraged 8. Quick turn around Time (3-4months) when stocks underperform or market falls. Get back to previous NAV high in quick time, hence strong stock/sector picking is key 9. Use leverage when market offers opportunity with strong patterns keeping risk under control. This maximizes gains in good period (Leverage can be 4-6 months a year depending on the duration of trend) 10. Hedge with Index/stock shorts when there is clear directional move. #SamarthwealthManagement

https://x.com/i/status/2017174693858447733

NTPC Powergrid were energy themes. I spoke on European Space discussion Check how these stocks are doing now

All were waiting for "Nirmala Candle" and it turned out to be a "Trump Candle" 😛 #USTradeDeal

My sense based on the price action today, Nifty, smallcap and Midcap have hit good base today. Confirmation above 25430 can be a good follow up move Expect good to very good budget. I am hopeful that Govt won't be that stupid to go against the Growth. When the world is shaking India can reshape its growth path. Optimistic for 2026 and the technical pattern to play out with its projections

I had about 5Tons of #Silver in #MCX and more than 6Tons in #Comex Initial move which i caught was from $22-$23 to $34. That's a 45-50% move in 4-5months. Then silver went sideways $34-28$ for few months. There is a saying by Stan Druckenmiller " When you see a great Trade, Bet Big". I did that and I am happy about it. My trade of 5Tons Silver long with screenshot is available on twitter to see how I was crazy about it when very few wanted to buy. You make some, you miss some. Be happy about the approach cos that mentality makes you money when you spot a great trade next time. #Mindset #BigBet