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US Bond Selloff Drives 30Y UST to Highest Since 2007

🔹 $SPY $RSP $IWM $MDY $QQEW all break to new ATHs 🔹Software $IGV $WDAY steals the show from Semis $SMH which stalls at 50d MA 🔹 $DRAM $SNDK led the Semis 🔹 $CIBR Cyber makes a new high 🔹Refiners are in Beast mode $VLO $PBF $PSX $MPC Christian Fromhertz

Throughout July when the first-half trend was derailed, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-DMAs continued to slowly trend higher. It's now sitting at 70% at its highest level of the last year. Incredible how tight the 12-month range for this indicator has been. BespokeInvest

Larry Bets the House Reuters

Guess This Is What Capitulation Looks Like.. CNBC

SK Hynix rises 30% to daily trading limit... KOSPI up over 16%

At ~11%, the market odds for three rate hikes by year end are the same as the odds of no rate hikes (or cuts) by year end. Which one are you taking? BespokeInvest

Fed votes 9-3 to hold. 3 dissenters were in favor of a quarter point hike

Did someone say rotation? SanDisk $SNDK was the best performing Russell 1,000 stock in the first half. It's now down 51.3% this month. The BEST performing stock this month out of the first half's 25 biggest winners is Dell $DELL with a decline of 14%. Corning $GLW is the biggest loser at -54%. BespokeInvest

$SMH semis etf record volume down day

Zerohedge sounding the alarm on circular financing: "Hey Nvidia, maybe cool it a bit on the "circular financing" circle jerk deals already. You are blowing up the bond market"

The US 30-year bond yield is trading above 5% for the longest stretch since the dawn of the financial crisis, echoing investor concerns about a growing debt pile and sticky inflation. So far this year, the 30-year has traded beyond 5% for 27 days — or about 19% of all sessions. It traded above that level for 50 days in 2007. Unlike that year, however, the Federal Reserve’s benchmark is currently 150 basis points lower, suggesting investors are demanding even more compensation for holding the longest maturity sold by Treasury than at the start of the subprime debt implosion Behind the sustained rise in long-dated yields is growing concern about a deteriorating fiscal picture, just as a deluge of issuance to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure is flooding the corporate debt market. Since 2007, the Treasury market has ballooned to $31 trillion from $4.5 trillion while debt as a percentage of US gross domestic product has doubled to exceed 100%. All told, years of excessive spending have propelled annual interest cost above $1 trillion

Iran Rushed Out $6 Billion of Oil During Brief Truce With U.S. - WSJ expect the global headwinds of this war to continue. watch US bonds

‌Two U.S. ‌troops were ​killed ‌in Jordan as they defended ballistic missile and drone attacks by Iran yesterday, the US Central ⁠Command ​(CENTCOM) has said in a statement.

Iran has adapted to U.S. defenses, firing missiles that travel at extremely high speeds and can maneuver as they streak toward the earth, according to U.S. officials familiar with the attacks. Iran’s ability to hit sensitive targets has also raised concerns that the regime is getting targeting help from China or Russia, the officials said. - WSJ

Kuwait says water, power station hit by Iran attack Iran Guards say struck US radar sites in Oman Overnight US attacks killed 8 Iranians, injured 20, state media reports

NEW — Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei gave $1 million to Public First, the super PAC seeking to slow down AI development with new regulations, per filing tonight. This is I believe Dario’s first significant political donation. $2 million+ came from other Anthropic employees. Regulatory capture, anyone?

$SPX 4wk new highs vs new lows Financials lead new highs / Tech leads new lows Christian Fromhertz