Trading Crypto Guide ™

#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE: #BTC is still moving sideways, bounded within the Weekly Key area. This means we need to wait an additional week to see a breakout of the zone.

Bitcoin is trading in the biggest cost-basis zone, around $62K–$68K. It is split almost evenly between short-term and long-term holders. Long-term holders provide support, while short-term holders are more likely to sell on a bounce. The key level is $69K, with major supply above at $83K–$86K.

#TOTAL UPDATE: #TOTAL dropped to the strong support zone, altcoins slowed down its move, and moved sideways. Let's wait for the breakout to happen; shorts are probable, so the bias now is bearish.

#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE: #BITCOIN has slowly retraced the entire week, moving up and up, still following the range with nothing happening. Nothing can be anticipated here; we need to wait for the price to move in either direction or for clarity.

The second channel is more mechanical. Three-month futures basis, the yield on the cash-and-carry trade that anchors institutional participation in crypto, has been paying less than a 2-year Treasury since February. Only one other stretch on record has run this long, from August 2022 into January 2023, and it ended at the cycle low. When Treasuries out-yield the basis, the desks that supply leverage, depth and volume to this market have little reason to be here. Much of what follows in the off-chain section looks downstream of that one spread.

$BTC implied volatility continues to compress, led by the front end. 1-week ATM IV has fallen toward 26%, while 6-month IV remains near 39%, steepening the term structure as traders price in subdued near-term moves but retain longer-dated uncertainty.

#BTC still figuring out its next directional move with nothing significant happening at this stage. Shallow moves up and down continuing to frustrate both bulls and bears with no clear conviction emerging from either side. Market remains in a holding pattern…

The dollar has been rallying since May, and Bitcoin is handling it worse than almost any dollar rally on record. The typical precedent since 2015 had Bitcoin higher by this point in the run. This time it is deep in the red, with 3 of the 20 past rallies worse.

#BTC.D retraced and is back to the pattern break, and now it is more prone to move up towards the resistance area at 59.90% - 59.94%. This means altcoins can see a drop in price again, so hold the shorting opportunity.

#BTC attempting to move back up towards the resistance area again, might be on the verge of breaking the zone. Once the zone is flipped and the weekly candle closes, this could be a good sign for the bullish move to start. We'll see additional confirmation…

Here is the analysis of #ATOM: #ATOM is too unclear to say anything definitively, as the price action is not clear. It shows just a clean downtrend with small moves up now. The price can still move lower, so a price retracement and taking shorts could be really good.

#BTC goes sideways and dropped hard and strongly yesterday at the NY Open. Price is still unclear and there is not much to do here. LTF turns bearish; now we can expect a short-term drop in the market.

#GOLD is still stuck in the consolidation range, now forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. Short-term scalping can be done on either side of the breakout.

#BTC again experienced a short-term rejection from the resistance area, and a move lower may be imminent. However, anticipating this too early would be premature; wait for the candlestick confirmation on the Daily TF.

The FOMC decides today, and the bond market has already made up its mind. The 2-year Treasury yield, the cleanest read on where policy goes next, has been sitting above the Federal Funds Rate since April, and the gap is the widest it has been since November 2022. That is not the pricing of a market waiting for a cut; it leans toward the next move being a hike. A cut today would surprise most of that positioning, and it would sit naturally alongside the soft core inflation print this report flagged last week. The reaction would matter more than the move: should the market fail to hold a bid on good news it was not expecting, that would say more about the absence of a marginal buyer than the decision itself.

Strategy increased its USD Reserve by $650M and repurchased $109M of $STRC. This increased USD Duration by 143 days to 2.7 yrs and tightened STRC's BTC Credit by 10 bps. As of 8/9/26, we hold ₿840,447 in our BTC Reserve and $4.65B in our USD Reserve.

#US30 UPDATE: #US30 has gone into a sideways market after printing a new all-time high. Expecting a new ATH to come along; after the breakout of the range, take the long position for new highs.

#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE: #BTC tapped into the zone again this week. This week, the price dropped again to the support area and nearly entered it. The price is now ranging significantly and needs to show a clear break to the downside.

#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE: #BITCOIN has moved back and forth around the $65,000 area. Not much has happened; the weekly TF still shows it is in range and might move lower to support again around $60,000. Nothing much, just wait and watch.