A1 Research + Machines & Money

New Machines & Money video is live! In today's video, I dive into 3 key long-term indicators that have been reliable signals that the remaining downside is relatively low Using history as a guide, these indicators show that a $150K BTC a year from now (a 127% gain) is actually a conservative target. Check out the video below ⬇️ https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2079937357399343472

For anyone interested, there's a new Machines & Money TG group! The purpose of this is to have a place where we can have discussions rather than a 1:many channel. It's only a few days old, but I'll be posting much more content in there, such as: - DeFi fundamental data - Market commentary (shared some thoughts for an upcoming video w/BTC price targets) - Trades (also shared the initial dashboard draft for a trading strategy I'm backtesting) - General news/reports Look forward to seeing some of you join 🤝 https://t.me/machines_and_money

3 reasons I'm bullish on Maple https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2079579422534082899

3 long-term indicators that show that the BTC bottom is either in or close: https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2079233437106594012

ZRO did not pan out, but VIRTUAL is looking strong!

$ZRO setup isn't as nice looking as $VIRTUAL, but still potential for a ~5r trade if it holds the daily 13ema https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2075754529253908633

New DeFi20 Update! Here's a look at 39 headlines from 16 of DeFi's top projects, including: - Monthly/Quarterly recaps for Curve, Aave, Morpho, Sky, Maple, Ethena, Falcon, and Canton - Ondo Perps goes fully live, total volume surpasses $2B - Maple proposes unique progressive buyback structure, launches $syrupUSDG alongside Robinhood - Aerodrome generated over 50% of onchain FX spot volume in Q2 https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2075687307781492978

If $VIRTUAL is going to make another run at the 200dma, it could be within the next few days. Would be a ~30% gain from here, vs 6-8% downside to support ($0.495-0.50).

As crypto "grows up," the shift from pure speculation (memecoins, etc.) to true value (revenue sharing, sustainable incentives) has never been more clear. The market punished altcoins severely from 2022-2025. Over the long-term, the ones that deliver value to their holders will outperform. https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2075354115584991371

New Machines & Money video is live! This video covers 3 unique long-term indicators that suggest a BTC bottom is near. These indicators have flashed a combined 11 times since 2015, and each time BTC's price made at least a 100% gain over the following 18 months. 9 out of the 11 times, it made at least a 3x move. You can find the video here: https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2074896150520528981

Here's a look at BTC's past performance for 18 months following the bullish signal from April. While it takes a few months to get going, it's produced gains of 200%+ all 3 times it's flashed before. Will be discussing this as well as 2 other bullish BTC market signals in tomorrow's Mid Week Market Check.

New issue of Machines & Money is live! Today, we're covering OnRe, a project bringing ~12% APY onchain, mostly via reinsurance premiums. Reinsurance is one of the world’s largest institutional asset classes, offering returns uncorrelated with crypto, equities, and interest rates. OnRe brings reinsurance premiums onchain, making one of finance’s most illiquid markets composable. We also hold PT's of their ONyc token via Exponent Finance, earning over 14% APY to-date. Read the full issue here: https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2074218317141655965

We created the Machines & Money DeFi20 Index to zoom in on 20 of the most influential projects in the space. Here's a look at their most recent progress, including: - Kraken's offer to purchase 15% stake in Aave - Ondo Perps surpasses $1B in public beta volume - Ondo launches 24/7 minting and redemption for tokenized stocks - Blockworks covers EtherFi's successful pivot to the neobank space - Key metrics for Sky, Canton, and Virtuals See all 26 headlines here 🔽 https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2070635749188243538

New issue of Machines & Money is live! Today, we covered Agra, a CLOB exchange for tokenized credit and fixed income. Agra adds a secondary market structure for illiquid assets that redeem at T+7, T+30, T+90, or theoretically any duration. This allows assets to be continuously priced, exited before maturity, and used as collateral in DeFi. Currently, Agra offers exposure to different instruments and risk tiers, including: - Private credit - Consumer credit - Structured yield - KYC-gated institutional credit like ACRDX (Apollo’s Diversified Credit Fund) You can read the full article here: https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2070591708400660733

New Machines & Money video is live! This week, we're trying something different for our Mid-Week Market Check series. For some types of content, such as chart analysis, video may be more suitable. Currently, BTC is sitting at a key support level. In today’s video, we explain what to expect from here, zooming in on previous capitulation events and the following price action. We also examine the current state of altcoins, many of which are forming bearish patterns alongside BTC. We give all the details in the video below! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWJvZwrSIuM

We created a custom dashboard to show key metrics and market share of the spot DEX component of the DeFi20 Index. Specifically, this includes Uniswap, Aerodrome, Curve, and Jupiter, whose activity makes up a large portion of the overall spot market. Combined, these projects have generated the following activity over the past year: - $1.47T in volume - $1.49B in fees - $289M in revenue More info here: https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2069479174302286240

We created the @a1research__ Machines & Money DeFi20 Index to zoom in on 20 of the most influential projects in the space. Here's a look at their most recent progress, including: - Ondo Finance tokenizing 173 more stocks/ETFs - Aerodrome's dominance and Euler's growth on Base - Aave V4 crossing $175M in deposits - Kamino leading in RWA lending See all 13 headlines here: https://x.com/_exnihil0_/status/2068081934471672052

New issue of Machines & Money is live! Today, we covered a project building at the intersection of DeFi and DePIN: Fractals. Fractals is bringing global infrastructure financing to onchain investors of all sizes via "shard" offerings. The article explains exactly how these work, and why they routinely sell out within a matter of minutes (many of them offer 100%+ APYs). Read the full issue here: https://x.com/a1research__/status/2068054495938887726

The first Machines & Money video is live! "State of the Altcoin Market" We cover the quiet strength building up in altcoins, specifically DeFi20 tokens such as: $AERO $SKY $JUP $ONDO $CFG $CC $MORPHO and of course $HYPE As well as the LTF indicators we're watching, which suggest that BTC is much closer to bottoming than many people expect Watch the full video here (and subscribe if you enjoy!): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO-uGB7kYQo

Giving this a bump, would love to get some more responses!