ArthamBit Capital

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QCP Market Update 12 Jul In the past week, crypto prices have tested the upperside of the recent range with BTC trading up to 22,490 and ETH to 1,275. However, as expected, prices have been capped and have now dropped back into the range with BTC back to 20,000 and ETH to 1,100. An additional reason has strengthened our view that upside will be capped in the near-term. This is the news about Mt. Gox releasing approximately 140,000 BTC in August. It is impossible to be certain about the exact impact, given the numerous cross-arguments and theories surrounding the release. Our main takeaway is that there is a high chance of BTC supply flooding the market soon. The possible impact would be additional selling pressure on BTC and perhaps the outperformance of ETH and Alts against BTC. With BTC and ETH still stuck in a recent range, vols fell even further into the weekend. BTC vols dropped to lows of 64% and ETH to 80%. As mentioned, we turned slightly long vol last week and we've continued adding to our long gamma (short-term options) position. Vols are likely oversold especially given US CPI tomorrow, 13 July. The inflation print has been a key source of market movement this year and we expect an uptick in vols ahead of the event. We have also been putting on a long downside skew position (buy put/sell call) with risk reversal levels the highest we've seen in a long time. BTC RR (end-July) at -9% and ETH at -12% (from -22% and -32% just two weeks ago). We're not outrightly bearish at these spot levels but we think the sudden demand for call structures might have pushed the risk reversal levels abit too much to the topside. Our base case continues to be sideways trading with the risk of sharp dips and upside capped.

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