Alpha with Artemis

Wrote my 2025 memo here! https://0xkyle.substack.com/p/the-2025-gameplan

Merry Christmas Everybody ❤️❤️❤️🎄🎄🎄

Date: Friday, 20 Dec 📰 Daily News 📰 1. Bitcoin Tumble Triggered $1.4 Billion in Liquidations (Source) 2.Ethereum ETFs surge in December as inflows hit $1.66 billion, dominated by BlackRock's ETHA (Source) 3. DeFi Protocol Usual's Surge Catapults Hashnote's Tokenized Treasury Over BlackRock's BUIDL (Source) 🌊 Flows 🌊 Chains with top 3 net inflows in the past day: • Solana: +18.6M • Arbitrum: +11.4M • OP Mainnet: +2.5M Chains with top 3 net outflows in the past day: • Ethereum: -38.1M • Moonbeam: -0.2M • zkSync Era: -0.01M 🔎 Artemis Alpha 🔎 BTC 24H: +0.7% ETH 24H: +2.1% 2. Top individually performing assets the past 24h are: • Virtuals: +25.3% • Hyperliquid: +21.9% • Ethena: +17.3% 🔎 Artemis Alpha 🔎 Gmeow Today was an insane trading day for me, with BTC wicking to 92k at around 6am ET. I think it's easy to push this bearishness as a consequence of the Fed sudden hawkishness, but I believe it's just a simple result of what happens when there's a small door and everyone's rushing to the exit. Simply put, I believe that everyone in crypto was, while not levered to the tits (based on OI / funding rates + the recent washout), were extremely net long - and in such events like FOMC, the decision matrix looks something like: (if Fed bullish, market has little upside) (if Fed bearish, market is super off positioned) I.e because everyone was so skewed bullish, I believed that FOMC was in-line or slightly bullish would do nothing to propel buyers; on the other hand, any hint of bearishness would cause a cascade which is what we saw the beginnings of, on Wednesday. In such a scenario, it is always, always EV to position yourself flat into the event - i.e whenever there's an overweight skew on one side, it is extremely -EV to continue positioning along that skew, because the outcome of something unexpected will be far greater than what you get from positioning in line. Anyways, I yap too much. I'm writing this as I wind down the trading day, and I will say that the markets are looking much different than they did just a month ago. On-chain is absolutely rekt in my eyes, and that anyone doing anything there is squeezing water out of a stone. There is an element of deadness + people rushing to keep gambling despite many participants staying on the sidelines. IMO the game is to be played on CEX alts ATM, with many great alts doing insanely well the past few weeks (HYPE being the prime example.); I look forward to seeing what SUI / USUAL / HYPE have in store, and new launches have done well today (ME / VANA / MOVE) - i will continue monitoring them. Have a great weekend! Cheers, Kyle

Date: Wednesday, 11 Dec 📰 Daily News 📰 1. MARA proposes $700 million convertible senior note offering to buy more bitcoin (Source) 2.Coinbase Continues Meme Push As They List PNUT (Source) 3. Circle, Binance Enter Partnership To Expand USDC Usage (Source) 🌊 Flows 🌊 Source: Artemis Flows Page Chains with top 3 net inflows in the past day: • Solana: +26.0M • Arbitrum: +21.0M • OP Mainnet: +14.9M Chains with top 3 net outflows in the past day: • Ethereum: -73.5M • StarkNet: -1.4M • Avalanche: -0.9M 🔎 Artemis Alpha 🔎 BTC 24H: +4.7% ETH 24H: +4.6% 2. Top individually performing assets the past 24h are: • Hyperliquid: +24.4% • Bitget: +15.4% • Sui: +15.2% 📝 Authors Note By 0xKyle 📝 GM. I’m back! I will be continuing Artemis’s Market Updates for a while for my dear friends at Artemis… so you’ll continue to hear more of my yapping! Now, I just travelled up the west coast from LA to SF and around Big Sur (amazing btw); and are back to observe the markets with a fresh pair of eyes. My thoughts thus far: The flush we saw just a few days ago was probably *the* flush on alts; it was the largest liquidation event since Covid (I’m quoting this from Twitter, not sure if it’s true); and while my base case was a choppy December into a bullish Q1, it looks like today BTC wants to prove me wrong already. Either way, the alts you want to be long are those that have recovered since the flush - and those are: HYPE / ENA / AAVE / PEPE / SUI / RAY / VIRTUAL / BEAM / ONDO / RONIN and others; Cheers Kyle

Alpha with Artemis pinned «Date: Monday, 2 Dec 📰 Daily News 📰 1. Hyperliquid's HYPE surpasses Aave in market cap, claims nearly half of decentralized perpetual swaps volume (Source) 2.MicroStrategy acquires another 15,400 bitcoin for $1.5 billion, taking holdings to 402,100 BTC…»

Date: Monday, 2 Dec 📰 Daily News 📰 1. Hyperliquid's HYPE surpasses Aave in market cap, claims nearly half of decentralized perpetual swaps volume (Source) 2.MicroStrategy acquires another 15,400 bitcoin for $1.5 billion, taking holdings to 402,100 BTC (Source) 3. MARA proposes $700 million convertible senior note offering to buy more bitcoin (Source) 🌊 Flows 🌊 Source: Artemis Flows Page Chains with top 3 net inflows in the past day: • Arbitrum: +47.6M • Base: +24.0M • OP Mainnet: +17.9M Chains with top 3 net outflows in the past day: • Ethereum: -81.7M • Polygon: -7.7M • Sui: -5.0M 🔎 Artemis Alpha 🔎 BTC 24H: -1.3% ETH 24H: -2.0% 1. Top performing sectors the past 24h by simple average are: • Store Of Value: +7.3% • Gen 1 Smart Contract: +6.9% • Orcale: +6.6% 2. Top individually performing assets the past 24h are: • Kaia: +46.3% • Hedera: +43.9% • Chainlink: +36.4% 📝 Authors Note By 0xKyle 📝 GM. Today will be the last day of Daily Market Updates with Artemis! If you guys don’t already know, Alpha with Artemis is run by me, 0xKyle (https://twitter.com/0xkyle__), and I will be going back to school to finish my last semester of study. I hope you’ve enjoyed it so far - I wrote it everyday through the chop market till the start of the bulla. We’re finally in the promised land! In the future, the telegram channel will be used to disseminate information about Artemis. As for myself, I’ll still be active on Twitter & Telegram, so feel free to follow me~ But before I go, let’s provide one last market color: The local top is obviously here, and has been here since yesterday, as on-chain alts get slaughtered -50%; The risk curve goes something like BTC -> Alts -> On-chain, so on-chain always goes down the first… and this morning BTC followed swiftly. While we’ve seen a slight recovery so far, I’m inclined to think BTC continues grinding down into Christmas with a lack of structural bidders; Michael Saylor’s buys were the only thing keeping us afloat; The plan is if BTC ever dips below 90k, it’s an instant buy. On higher time frames, the bull market is still intact; in 2021, the bull market was kickstarted by low rates + Covid stimmy, and the bull market end could be foreseen by the change in macro conditions. In the same vein, the 2024 bull market was started by regulatory easing in a Trump presidency - as such, it’s probably too early to call cycle tops because there has been no equivalent macro change (yet). Narrative wise, I believe in the BTC <> HYPE <> AI16Z barbell stronger than ever. In my opinion, the two strategies that currently have the most alpha right now are either longing very low market cap tokens (sub 10mm); or riding the large ones (e.g XRP up 3x, HYPE up 3x); there is 0 edge in choosing a 50mm token and riding it to 500m, because there is just infinite dilution at that stage. For large caps, I don’t have an opinion on what to buy, other than HYPE. There are the usual top performers - LINK / HBAR / ADA / XRP & AAVE / ENA, but the risk-adjusted returns of longing them here don’t seem clear to me. HYPE seems fairly priced at 10bn, but my (short-form) opinion is that this is quite possibly very undervalued compared to some L1s just at the rate they ship and the fact that they have more users than the average L1. I believe the month of December is one for chilling as people take off for the holidays, before we see an UpOnly Q1 2025. See ya’ll next year! - Kyle

Memecoin Sector Updates:

Date: Friday, 15 Nov 📰 Daily News 📰 1. Bitcoin retail investor demand hits 52-month high as market momentum builds: CryptoQuant (Source) 2.Spot bitcoin ETFs see $400 million in outflows, ending six-day inflow streak (Source) 3. Why Tether is pumping to $127bn after Trump’s win (Source) 🌊 Flows 🌊 Source: Artemis Flows Page Chains with top 3 net inflows in the past day: • Solana: +19.6M • Sui: +10.7M • Arbitrum: +9.5M Chains with top 3 net outflows in the past day: • Ethereum: -39.6M • Polygon: -4.3M • Moonbeam: -0.2M 🔎 Artemis Alpha 🔎 BTC 24H: +0.84% ETH 24H: -2.9% 1. Top performing sectors the past 24h by simple average are: • Memecoin: +4.7% • NFT Applications: +3.4% • Gen 1 Smart Contract: +3.0% 2. Top individually performing assets the past 24h are: • Algorand: +25.2% • Cardano: +21.6% • Brett: +17.7% 📝 Authors Note By 0xKyle 📝 gm. It’s a sad, sad day when the top performers are Algorand, Cardano, and XRP. I have to say that I’m pretty tired of reporting memecoins as top performers, but don’t be fooled - these 3 are practically the same. I’ve long since advocated that “every token is a social token” and here you can see the culmination of that thesis - these 3 coins have the most retail mindshare, and thus are dominating performers. I had to scroll pretty far down to see a non-memecoin token; Aero is up 13.7%, Ethena is up 4% - but in between there were a bunch of memecoins. I have not much market color to give, except to keep expecting more of this - I do not think we shift towards fundamentals anytime soon in this bull market. Memecoins are truly king. Anyways, that’s all for today, Happy Friday! - Kyle

Date: Thursday, 14 Nov 📰 Daily News 📰 1. Tether launches RWA platform to 'allow the tokenization of anything' (Source) 2.Franklin Templeton Expands $410M Money Market Fund to Ethereum Blockchain (Source) 3. U.S. ETF Inflows Hit $4.7B Over 6 Days as Bitcoin Becomes 7th-Largest Asset in the World (Source) 🌊 Flows 🌊 Source: Artemis Flows Page Chains with top 3 net inflows in the past day: • Arbitrum: +15.7M • Solana: +9.4M • Base: +8.5M Chains with top 3 net outflows in the past day: • Ethereum: -36.6M • OP Mainnet: -3.3M • Avalanche: -1.1M 🔎 Artemis Alpha 🔎 BTC 24H: -1% ETH 24H: -1.1% 1. Top performing sectors the past 24h by simple average are: • SoV: +2.9% • RWA: +2.1% 2. Top individually performing assets the past 24h are: • Mantra: +25.1% • Pepe: +18.4% • XRP: +15.6% 📝 Authors Note By 0xKyle 📝 gm. this bull market has not been forgiving to fundamentalists, as memecoins continue to outperform. In today’s top 1-100 tokens, the top 10 performers in order are Mantra / Brett / Pepe / XRP / Kaspa / Peanut / Mog / Hedera / Litecoin / Goat. 6/10 are memes, 1 is XRP, 1 is Kaspa, 1 is a old L1, and 1 is Hedera. It’s not looking too hot. And if you go lower marketcaps (101 - 200), it’s pretty much the same story - Simon’s Cat / Moo Deng / Degen / Act 1 / Ponke / SPX6900 / Notcoin / JUST. I’m not sure whether this trend will change this cycle, or maybe liquid funds may pivot to apeing memecoins. Either way, it’s a difficult period for most fundamental picks, which is tough. On another note, I also think that the cycle top is not in, and that this is just the beginning of mania. On HTFs, we are somewhere around enthusiasm / greed, and on the LTFs, we locally topped (finished one mini cycle); Anyways, that’s all for today, Happy Thursday! - Kyle

Date: Tuesday, 12 Nov 📰 Daily News 📰 1. Stablecoin Supply Expands by $5B Since U.S. Election as Investors Pile Into Crypto (Source) 2. 'Get long and stay long': Trumponomics path to a weaker dollar and $1 million bitcoin, says Arthur Hayes (Source) 3. Coinbase launches COIN50 index, tradable as a perpetual future with up to 20x leverage (Source) 🌊 Flows 🌊 Source: Artemis Flows Page Chains with top 3 net inflows in the past day: • Solana: +23.0M • Arbitrum: +19.7M • Base: +4.8M Chains with top 3 net outflows in the past day: • Ethereum: -42.0M • OP Mainnet: -4.4M • Polygon PoS: -2.0M 🔎 Artemis Alpha 🔎 BTC 24H: +0.28% ETH 24H: -2.6% 1. Top performing sectors the past 24h by simple average are: • CEX: +3.9% • NFT Apps: +2.2% 2. Top individually performing assets the past 24h are: • AIOZ: +26.8% • Bonk: +23.4% • Stellar: +18.4% 📝 Authors Note By 0xKyle 📝 gm. sorry for not posting the past couple of days, was away from the desk. but glad to be back and see my coins up bigly. Unfortunately, all signs point towards a local top with Coinbase app now #2 on finance, every news outlet talking about Bitcoin, Jason, Sam Altman and Ycom all talking about how crypto is great again, etc. Even my mom messaged me to tell me that she should have bought more Bitcoin. On the higher time frames, I think we’re fine. But the one thing I do foresee happening this cycle is either A) a compressed cycle or 😎 a Bitcoin only cycle, or some semblance of both. Total1 is at ATHs, while Total3 hasn’t eclipsed January highs yet; while people seem to think that it “trickles down”, I think it’s pretty bearish that we’re 30% higher for Bitcoin, yet at the same Total3 MC for alts. I feel like mania has compressed and there is a world where alts top whilst BTC just keeps grinding up slowly, similar to the summer PA - some weeks BTC would keep going higher but alts kept making lower lows. Anyways, enough bear talk ; i’m still planning out my trade ideas, and that’s one of em. That’s all for today, Happy Tuesday! - Kyle

Date: Thursday, 7 Nov 📰 Daily News 📰 1. France to ban users’ access to Polymarket: report (Source) 2. BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF sees record-breaking $4 billion traded on Election Day (Source) 3. How This Crypto Hedge Fund Nailed the Trump Trade (Source) 🌊 Flows 🌊 Source: Artemis Flows Page Chains with top 3 net inflows in the past day: • Sui: +26.8M • Polygon PoS: +24.5M • Solana: +19.3M Chains with top 3 net outflows in the past day: • Ethereum: -91.0M • OP Mainnet: -1.8M • Moonbean: -0.4M 🔎 Artemis Alpha 🔎 BTC 24H: +2.4% ETH 24H: +7.9% 1. Top performing sectors the past 24h by simple average are: • RWA: +10.8% • Centralized Exchange: +6.0% • DeFi: +2.9% 2. Top individually performing assets the past 24h are: • Neiro: +31.7% • Raydium: +25.3% • Ethena: +19.6% 📝 Authors Note By 0xKyle 📝 gm. This is the day we’ve waited for, for so long. Today is FOMC, but I don’t see risk being taken off the table - this means that IF fomc is bad, we could actually see too many people being exposed. But my base case is that Powell continues cutting, tbh. I believe that the markets base case is 25 bps (don’t quote me on this); the equity markets are up incredibly alot today, so my guess is if he does something out of the left field it would be incredibly ugly, but the probability of that is low. Anyways, since it’s bull, there are finally narratives, and it’s time to do my job as a picker to choose the fastest horse. These are today’s top narratives, and their favourite tickers. AI: GOAT / ZEREBRO / GRASS SOL: RAY / JUP RWA: CPOOL / ONDO / MPL ETH / ETH BETA: PEPE / MOG / ENA / UNI / AAVE / PENDLE PRESIDENCY: PNUT / D.O.G.E (memecoin on ETH) / DOGECOIN MEMES: MOODENG / NEIRO / MURAD COINS (SPX LOCKIN GIGA ETC.) Anyways, that’s all for today. Happy Thursday! - Kyle

Date: Wednesday, 6 Nov 📰 Daily News 📰 1. Bitcoin hits new all-time high on Trump presidential victory (Source) 2. Here’s how Argentina is leading the charge on digital identity with ZK tech (Source) 3. Solana Jumps 17%, Flips BNB Chain Token, as Trump's Lead Renews ETF Hopes (Source) 🌊 Flows 🌊 Source: Artemis Flows Page Chains with top 3 net inflows in the past day: • Solana: +13.3M • Base: +8.8M • Sui: +5.5M Chains with top 3 net outflows in the past day: • Ethereum: -34.1M • Avalanche: -1.8M • Aptos: -0.2M 🔎 Artemis Alpha 🔎 BTC 24H: +5.6% ETH 24H: +7.4% 1. Top performing sectors the past 24h by simple average are: • Staking Services: +15.4% • Data Availability: +12.7% • Data Services: +11.9% 2. Top individually performing assets the past 24h are: • Neiro: +31.9% • Uni: +29.2% • Aave: +26% 📝 Authors Note By 0xKyle 📝 gm. btc ath. that’s all for today. kidding - while neiro is the top performer, a great sign for the fundamentalists in the chat with Uni and Aave not too far behind. For sure this is a great knee jerk trade on the potential reg free environment crypto is going to have. As we head into a risk on environment, it’s important to pick the fastest horse ; DeFi could be one, on top of AI / Memes General sentiment was elated yesterday but doesn’t seem as excitable today as price stalls. Again, the macro uncertainty is gone, so honestly we have clear skies for the best rally of the winter. If we don’t get it and if god-forbid if we go back lower (sub 70k), that would honestly be pretty crushing. Otherwise, I remain long and strong. It’s buy the dip szn until told otherwise, and for me to stop zooming in on LTFs and start focusing on HTFs again (I sometimes confuse my HTF positions for LTF movement bc I write this daily) Anyways, that’s all for today. Happy Wednesday! - Kyle