ASAP Agri

🌾 Wheat futures rally on attacks on russian grain terminals ahead of August WASDE, while report confirms Black Sea export problems — ASAP Agri Wheat futures were already moving sharply higher on Wednesday ahead of the August WASDE release, supported by renewed Black Sea supply concerns after Ukrainian attacks damaged grain terminals at Novorossiysk, a key russian wheat export port. The news pushed both CBOT and Euronext wheat higher before the report. WASDE later reinforced concerns over Black Sea exports by cutting shipment forecasts for both russia and Ukraine due to logistics disruptions, although the absence of major surprises limited any additional boost to futures.   USDA cut its 2026/27 russian wheat export forecast by 1.5 MMT to 46 MMT and Ukraine’s by 1 MMT to 13.5 MMT. These reductions were partly offset by higher export forecasts for Canada and Kazakhstan, each raised by 1 MMT to 28.5 MMT and 10 MMT, respectively. Overall, global wheat exports were reduced by 0.4 MMT to 212.7 MMT.   Global wheat production was cut by 0.7 MMT to 819.3 MMT. The largest reductions were made for drought-affected crops in the EU and the UK, with production lowered by 1.8 MMT to 134.2 MMT and by 1.5 MMT to 12 MMT, respectively. U.S. production was also trimmed by 0.2 MMT to 41.7 MMT due to lower harvested area and yield. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s crop was raised by 1.4 MMT to 25.4 MMT, while Canada’s production was increased by 1 MMT to 35 MMT.   Global wheat consumption was revised only marginally higher, by 0.1 MMT. However, feed wheat use in the EU was raised by 2 MMT as corn supplies were cut further.   Global ending stocks were increased by 0.4 MMT to 273.3 MMT, above the average trade estimate, mainly due to higher stocks in Ukraine, up 2.3 MMT, and russia, up 1.5 MMT.   The August WASDE confirmed mounting concerns over Black Sea wheat exports and again highlighted the negative impact of drought on European and U.S. production. However, the overall global balance remained relatively neutral, limiting the report’s ability to provide an additional bullish impulse. For now, wheat futures appear to be reacting more strongly to developments in the russia-Ukraine war and their impact on Black Sea grain logistics, as export forecasts for both russia and Ukraine could be cut further unless talks on securing safe grain shipments emerge. 📍Detailed outlooks for all crops available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers. 📲Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova on WhatsApp 👉https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL

❗️No agreements reached on operations of Ukrainian and russian deep-sea ports – ASAP Agri Market participants began circulating rumors that Ukraine and russia, with Turkey’s support, may have reached some form of understanding on restoring normal navigation in the Black Sea. Valerii Tkachov, Deputy Director of the Commercial Operations Department at Ukrzaliznytsia, was cited as the source of these claims. ASAP Agri stresses that this is an incorrect interpretation and speculation based on yesterday’s interview. The interview only stated that farmers are slowing agricultural commodity sales in the hope that Turkey could help facilitate an agreement between Ukraine and russia. Farmers are reluctant to sell grain, hoping that negotiations may begin and eventually lead to an improvement in Black Sea shipping conditions, potentially as early as August. However, this scenario remains speculative and has not been confirmed by any official developments. #ASAPAgri #ASAPPremium #GrainTrade #BlackSea

❗️Ніяких домовленостей щодо праці глибоководних портів України і россії не було – ASAP Agri Учасники ринку почали поширювати чутки про те, що Україна та росія за підтримки Туреччини могли досягти певного розуміння щодо відновлення нормального судноплавства в Чорному морі. Як джерело почали вказувати Валерія Ткачова, заступника директора департаменту комерційної роботи «Укрзалізниці». ASAP Agri підкреслює, що це некоректне тлумачення і домисли до вчорашнього інтерв'ю. В інтерв'ю зазначалося, що фермери гальмують продажі агропродукції в очікуванні, що Туреччина посприяє домовленості між Україною і Росією. Фермери не поспішають продавати зерно, сподіваючись, що переговори можуть розпочатися та зрештою привести до покращення умов судноплавства в Чорному морі, можливо, вже у серпні. Однак цей сценарій поки залишається спекулятивним і не підтверджений жодними офіційними подіями. #ASAPAgri #ASAPPremium #GrainTrade #BlackSea

Why agrarians are waiting 20 August and delay sales – ASAP Agri This Monday at 14:30 Kyiv time, ASAP Agri Premium subscribers met with Valerii Tkachov, Deputy Director of the Commercial Operations Department at Ukrzaliznytsia. 🔑 Top 10 key takeaways from ASAP Agri’s interview with him are already available for ASAP Agri Premium subscribers. 📲 👉Request a free trial of subscription: message Olga Ramazanova https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL #ASAPAgri #ASAPPremium #GrainTrade #Logistics

🛳 Freight from Ukraine: rates for coaster shipments ex Danube keep climbing, albeit at a slower pace – ASAP Agri The overall picture of the Ukrainian freight market remains rather gloomy, amid continued attacks on vessels heading to the ports of Greater Odesa. Cargo orders in Handysize lots and above have declined, and there are almost no candidates willing to perform such voyages. At the same time, the coaster market ex Danube remains well supplied with cargo offers, although most of them are not firm. Nevertheless, tonnage for Danube shipments can still be found, voyages are being performed, and freight rates continue to rise, though already at a slower pace. 📍Full report available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers. 👉 Stay ahead with ASAP Agri Premium Reports 📲 Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova 👉 https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL

Ukraine’s Plan B: Grain export via Land 📝 This Monday at 14:30 Kyiv time, ASAP Agri Premium subscribers will have opportunity to ask their questions to Valerii Tkachev, Deputy Director of the Transportation Technologies and Commercial Operations Department at JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia”. 🚂 How much grain can Ukraine move by land? 🌍 Can Europe handle the extra volumes? 💰 What will it cost? 🔓 And where is the real bottleneck? 👉 Stay ahead with ASAP Agri Premium Reports 📲 To jump on the bandwagon 👉Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL

Doubled freights from Ukrainian Danube ports: limit reached or further growth expected 📝 Every Monday at 14:30 Kyiv time, ASAP Agri provides its premium subscribers with expert commentary on current issues. 🔍 First Monday of August, together with Taras Panasyuk, Head of Freight Brokerage Department at Atria Brokers, we discussed if the freight from Danube ports of Ukraine to Constanta reached its peak. The full English-language version of the interview are available from our subscription manager Olga. 👉 Stay ahead with ASAP Agri Premium Reports 📲 Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova 👉 https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL

🌾 Turkey’s paradox: abundant wheat, uncompetitive export, tight corn supply 🇹🇷 Turkey may harvest up to 25 MMT of wheat in 2026, but estimated export offers at 340+ USD/MT FOB are too high. 🌽 Domestic corn prices climbed to around 302 USD/MT amid tight nearby supply and limited Ukrainian offers. Additional support came from the expiry of Turkey’s reduced-duty import quota. 🚢 The shortage of large Ukrainian cargoes may keep Turkish corn prices elevated even after the domestic harvest begins. 📍 Full analysis 👉 https://shorturl.at/HJJHU 📊 Stay ahead with ASAP Agri Premium Reports — your live analytics for every day. 📲 Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova on WhatsApp 👉 https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL

Key aspects of force majeure in July 2026 with AGA Partners 📝 Every Monday at 14:30 Kyiv time, ASAP Agri provides its premium subscribers with expert commentary on current issues. 🔍 On the last Monday of July, together with AGA Partners, we reviewed the key aspects of force majeure in July 2026. The full Ukrainian- and English-language versions of the interview are available from our subscription manager, Olga. 👉 Stay ahead with ASAP Agri Premium Reports 📲 Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova 👉 https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL

🌾 Algeria’s wheat purchase price rises by 25 USD/MT in three weeks — ASAP Agri   Algeria’s state grain buyer OAIC reportedly purchased around 720 KMT of optional-origin soft milling wheat in a tender held on 5 August.   Trade estimates placed the purchase price at around 289-290 USD/MT C&F, up approximately 25 USD/MT from the 264-265 USD/MT paid in the previous tender on 17 June.   The price was also 33-36 USD/MT above the 253-257 USD/MT paid in the tender held on 15 July 2025, when OAIC reportedly booked around 1 MMT of wheat for September-October shipment.   The latest cargoes are scheduled for shipment during three periods: 15-30 September, 1-15 October and 16-31 October.

🛳 Freight from Ukraine’s Danube ports: Egypt remains the top destination – ASAP Agri The overall picture in the Ukrainian freight market remains largely unchanged from last week: the Handysize market is virtually non-existent, as very few owners are willing to consider voyages from POC ports, while coaster rates ex Danube continue to rise sharply. Egypt remains the most popular destination in the coaster segment, with freight levels on this route rising at roughly twice the pace seen on other routes. At the same time, the first signs are emerging that the rapid increase in Danube rates may gradually begin to slow. Fixture activity has picked up recently, while charterers are increasingly testing lower freight ideas in an attempt to curb further growth. 📍Full report available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers. 👉 Stay ahead with ASAP Agri Premium Reports 📲 Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova 👉 https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL

Tunisia’s soft wheat purchase price jumps 16 USD/MT in 10 days — ASAP Agri Tunisia’s state grain buyer ODC purchased 75 KMT of optional-origin soft wheat in a tender on 30 July, for shipment between 25 August and 30 September, depending on origin.   The lowest-priced 25 KMT lot of russian origin was booked from Grainstar at 286 USD/MT C&F. Grainstar sold another 25 KMT at 289 USD/MT, while Cargill supplied 25 KMT at 289.57 USD/MT.   The lowest price was 16 USD/MT above the 270 USD/MT paid for 25 KMT in ODC’s previous tender on 21 July. Compared with the tender held on 23 July 2025, where 100 KMT of wheat were booked for August-September shipment, the lowest price increased by 24.51 USD/MT from 261.49 USD/MT.   Tunisia also purchased 50 KMT of optional-origin feed barley. CHS sold 25 KMT at 266.48 USD/MT C&F, while Casillo supplied another 25 KMT at 269.69 USD/MT, for shipment between 25 August and 25. 📍The full history of Tunisia’s wheat tenders is available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers. 📊 Stay ahead with ASAP Agri Premium Reports — your live analytics for every day! 📲 Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova on WhatsApp 👉 https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL

🌾 Ukraine’s crop could reach 85 MMT — but August weather and export capacity remain key risks 🇺🇦 Ukraine may harvest around 82–85 MMT of grains and oilseeds in 2026/27 MY, exceeding last season’s result. 🌦 Late crops in the south are largely formed, while central and eastern regions remain exposed to August heat and rainfall risks. ⚠️ Forecast heat could affect pollination and grain formation in regions where late crops are less advanced. 🚢 A large crop could intensify logistics pressure. 📍 Full analysis 👉 https://shorturl.at/aGSjY 📊 Stay ahead with ASAP Agri Premium Reports — your live analytics for every day! 📲 Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova on WhatsApp 👉 https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL

🇹🇷 Turkey: Record Harvest Opens Exports - ASAP Agri “The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has announced that exports of milling wheat from Turkey will be allowed again starting 29 July 2026, after being suspended since March 2025”, said Salih Karagöz, broker at Atria Brokers. The decision comes as the country expects a record wheat harvest, seen by some market operators at up to 25 MMT, ensuring ample domestic supplies and allowing authorities to reopen exports under a controlled approval system. For comparison, Ukrainian wheat crop 2026 is forecast by many sources at 24 MMT. #ASAPAgri #Turkey #Wheat #GrainMarkets #BlackSea #FoodSecurity 👉 Our ASAP Agri Premium subscribers get such news before it is spread on market 📲 Request a free trial: message Olga Ramazanova 👉 https://wa.me/380508837557?text=TRIAL