Bitopex Maniacs

New video is up. July closed at 2.1% on the Bitcoin vault and 3.4% on the altcoin one. Best month since April, and the market gave up almost nothing this month. Also in there: why Bitcoin is stuck in the same range it has been in since June, why Solana's volume is basically gone, and the two calls I sold this week (ETH 2k, SOL 78). Last week @evinho0x said HYPE was going under 55. It went to 50. https://x.com/BitopexIO/status/2085178768214176219

Community Update Hello everyone, This weekend, we consciously did not open any positions – in hindsight, this was the right decision. The market continued the expected downward trend, although it was pushed upwards by news surrounding Trump. Such short-term, news-driven movements are hardly reliably predictable and do not belong to our trading approach. In the past two weeks, we executed significantly fewer trades than usual. The end result would likely have been similar with a higher number of trades; however, we were able to avoid stronger drawdowns through a more defensive approach. We were able to finish July much better. Although the market remains turbulent, the month overall was satisfactory. Traditionally, August is rather quiet, which also means lower options premiums. We will, of course, do our best to achieve good results even under these market conditions. To the Hyperocket community: Our futures algorithms have been able to take advantage of the current downward trend well and continue to run stably. Next week, we will release the next generation of our futures algorithms. Thank you very much for your trust and support. Best regards, Sven

Hello Community, The weekend went significantly better again. I missed the entry a bit and therefore built the position more conservatively; nevertheless, the trade went well. I closed the BTC position early to reduce risk. In recent weeks, we have often seen that the market has risen from Friday to Sunday. Therefore, I consciously skipped our call sales this weekend. At the same time, the option premiums have become so cheap that I am considering trying long options in the future on a test basis when the risk-reward ratio is attractive. Overall, I am satisfied with the month so far—especially considering the current market environment. We had two very good trades that went against us just before expiration. Such movements are frustrating but unfortunately part of it. What do I mean by the current risk-off environment? A risk-off environment describes a market phase in which investors tend to avoid risks. Triggers can include geopolitical tensions, wars, economic uncertainty, or concerns about a recession. In such phases, capital often flows out of risky assets like cryptocurrencies or growth stocks into seemingly safe investments like government bonds, gold, or cash. This often leads to lower demand, lower volatility, and consequently lower option prices. Personally, I expect that the crypto market might still face some headwinds until the fall. The summer months are traditionally often quieter, with lower trading volumes and correspondingly lower option premiums. Let’s see how this develops. We remain disciplined and adjust our strategies to the market instead of forcing the market.

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Update from the Bitopex CEO Hello Community, The trades over the weekend started off positively. However, a large portion of the gains was unfortunately lost again after the conflict with Iran flared up once more, and the markets reacted accordingly. This is, of course, frustrating, as we would have had a significantly stronger month without this event. Nevertheless, we still stand solid overall and are operating within our expectations. The market still seems somewhat unstable, even though we are currently relatively flat in our positioning. In such an environment, we remain disciplined and adhere to our risk management instead of taking unnecessary risks. I wish you all a nice Sunday!

Green week across the board 👇 • BTC: +5.6% • ETH: +9.8% • SOL: +7.1% • XRP: +7.4% • PAXG: +2.7% Outlook for this week: Markets enter the new week with buyers back in control, but resistance is now close. Expected volatility: • BTC: ~4.5% expected move • ETH: ~6.0% • SOL: ~8.0% Right now, $BTC holding above 61.8k and reclaiming 64k is the main signal for broader continuation. A possible strategy idea is a weekly Bull Call Spread above the 64k resistance zone. (no financial advice, dyor!) The bounce is real for now. The next test is whether buyers can defend the first pullback!

I was right on direction and still lost money? That usually sounds impossible, until you meet IV crush. You buy a call before a big market move. Price goes up. Your option should win, right? Not always. Options are priced on more than direction. They also price expected movement. If traders expect chaos, implied volatility rises. That makes options more expensive. After the event passes, that fear can disappear fast. The option price may drop, even if $BTC moved your way. That is IV crush. The lesson is simple, but painful: ❌ Don’t buy options only because you expect price to move ✅ Ask what volatility is already priced in A good trade is not just “up or down.” It is direction, timing, volatility, and exit.

CEO Update on Trading The week went well; we are out of the drawdown. The last trade went exactly as expected; I even wanted to sell puts more aggressively and would have been right, but since there was hardly any premium on the higher strikes, I opted for the calmer option. I closed the trades earlier because we had 2-3 trades this month where our profit evaporated 1-2 hours before expiration. When we are already at 80% profit early on, it is certainly justified to take the profit. This week, we only had two trades, but I often get asked about "additional trades." Especially when we are in a drawdown for the month, it is naturally hard to wait. However, all the trades we skipped would have turned out negative. In that case, I did everything right. I also left out the calls for the weekend, which would have also created a strong drawdown. So, patience is key. We have navigated through the most challenging market in recent years over the last six months and have even developed new strategies from which we can benefit in the long term. Profits will rise again, just not when we want them to, but when the market allows it. We now have about 10 days left to close the month well. We continue to try to trade cautiously. The month has certainly been difficult with the drawdowns at the beginning. Overall, two of those were also very unfortunate, but that’s part of it. I wish you a nice Sunday.

SpaceX IPO is the headline, but the real setup is liquidity. - $75B raise - Almost 4x oversubscribed retail demand - 95x valuation mentioned in the transcript - Elon becomes the first trillionaire ever - Anthropic and OpenAI are next in the IPO race If retail money gets locked into SpaceX, the next AI IPOs may have a very different market waiting for them. https://x.com/BitopexIO/status/2066154428952887417

🎯 Ever wonder why BTC suddenly moves into a certain price on Friday expiration? It might be… Max Pain! ▶️Max Pain is the price at which the largest number of options expire worthless. Why does it matter? Because market makers often benefit most when the price expires near that level: • Option buyers lose premium • Sellers keep the decay • Volatility compresses into expiry That’s why you sometimes see BTC stuck toward certain strike prices before expiration. Example: If most BTC calls are stacked at $85k and puts at $80k, Max Pain might sit somewhere in between. Price often gravitates there as expiry approaches. Options don’t just react to the market, they often define it!

📅 Most Important Macro Events This Week Three key U.S. reports could drive volatility across crypto markets 👇 Consumer Confidence (Tue 15:00 CET) • Strong confidence + stable inflation expectations → bullish • Weak confidence or rising inflation fears → bearish US GDP Q1 (Thu 13:30 CET) • Stable or stronger growth → risk-on • Weak revision or stagflation fears → risk-off PCE Inflation / Core PCE (Thu 13:30 CET) • Cooling core inflation → yields drop → crypto positive • Hot inflation → fewer rate cuts → crypto negative Macro still controls short-term direction.

New Bitopex video is live. I cover the shift from bullish crypto momentum into fear, the BTC/ETH levels I’m watching, and how I’m using Bitopex options cards to structure safer ETH trades around the 2175 level. Not a blind long/short call but a good setup and risk framework. https://x.com/BitopexIO/status/2056511749059137545

Community Update Currently, the win rate is quite good. We have held back a bit on puts, which has cost us returns in hindsight. However, from a risk perspective, it was still the right decision. I think we can increase the size and frequency a bit. At the same time, I still expect a larger movement. At least the market is currently pricing in quite a bit of stability. One problem is that option prices are extremely low. Option prices can be calculated using a formula like Black-Scholes. A very important factor in this is the implied volatility. Currently, it is only at 20-25% in some cases, which is about one-third to even half lower than in more normal phases. I think this is more temporary, but we need to keep observing it. In recent months, we have also been working on expansions to improve returns again, even in the area of short-term options. This is currently running on a test account and looks very promising so far. For everyone trading at Bitopex: In recent days, there have been some issues and limitations. We are working to resolve these in the coming days and also to increase liquidity again.

📊 Copytrading Update | May Results May is already showing green across both Bitopex strategies: • 0DTE: +0.4% • ALT-0DTE: +1.0% Both strategies continue to perform with controlled risk and transparent track records 🤝 Current total P&L: • 0DTE: +122.83% • ALT-0DTE: +18.01% AUM remains strong at $7.34M combined. Steady execution. Clear statistics. No guesswork 📈

Good morning guys, our weekly crypto recap for this week 📈 Soft week across the board • BTC: -0.1% • PAXG: -1.4% • ETH: -1.9% • XRP: -2.8% • SOL: -3.5% BTC held up best, acting as the market anchor. Possible outlook for this week: The range for $BTC is between ~$78.3k–$80.6k. A break decides the direction (3–6% move) The market sentiment is cautiously bullish, but no strong conviction yet 👀

Update from CEO: Solid Trade today – in Bitcoin 0DTE nearly +0.4% with half the risk. Exactly the kind of setup we are currently looking for: controlled, clean, without unnecessary exposure. What stands out to me again: BTC is currently running significantly more stable than Alts in the 0DTE area. While Altcoin 0DTE should statistically be more attractive, we are currently seeing more underperformance. Part of this is certainly our consciously lower risk – but even adjusted for that, BTC currently just feels “calmer” and more predictable, especially over the weekend. With Ethereum, it’s particularly interesting: The option prices are relatively better than with BTC (higher implied volatility), but in my opinion still too cheap for the actual risk. This is exactly the area we are currently working on – especially how a mix of various Altcoin options behaves and whether we can build structurally better setups there. One possible factor remains the constant buying pressure from MicroStrategy, which is currently stabilizing BTC. This naturally distorts the relative attractiveness between BTC and Alts in the short term. In principle, I plan to take more risk with Altcoin 0DTE than with Bitcoin – but currently we are still consciously holding back. The market is simply not “calm enough” yet, and before we increase the size, we want to clearly see that the conditions are right again. Regarding the market overall: still hard to read. My assessment remains that we might see deeper levels in Bitcoin before a larger rally starts. Open your Bitopex account today: https://bitopex.io/?ref=3dd7e3309679

Update from Bitopex CEO: Did everything right on the weekend. I deliberately didn’t sell any puts because there was a risk that the peace negotiations would fail. The ceasefire was already priced in, and we were at the upper end of the range with a lot of resistance – not a good setup for short puts. At the core, I was right about this. On Saturday, there was – as so often – another one of those “typical” pumps. The question is: How do you recognize that something like this is more manipulative? The price action just feels unnatural: Individual strong 5-minute candles Then hardly any follow-through, low volume Then another spike, then nothing again The whole thing often repeats in waves. Additionally, you can see in the order book that the price is deliberately held at certain levels. This behavior occurs conspicuously often on Saturdays when liquidity is thin. In many cases, the price falls back to the original level after a few hours. That’s exactly what we saw this time as well – except that the failed peace negotiations then accelerated the downward move. As a result, our calls expired at maximum profit. The position size was still deliberately kept low – still a solid profit.

📊 Macro Week Ahead | What Moves Crypto This Week Key U.S. data drops could drive volatility across $BTC & ETH 👇 👀Tue: PPI (13:30 CET) • Cooler (especially core) → yields drop → crypto positive • Hot surprise → rate repricing → crypto negative 👀Wed: Import & Export Prices (13:30 CET) • Cooling import prices → less inflation pressure → crypto positive • Reacceleration → inflation narrative tightens → crypto negative 👀Wed: FED Beige Book (19:00 CET) • Steady growth + easing prices → risk-on • Sticky inflation, wage pressure, weak demand → risk-off What this means Macro still drives crypto. Yields move first. Crypto reacts after. 🚨 Expect volatility around data releases

### Update from the CEO Over the weekend, we were able to take a small profit. Our position size remained low to mitigate risk, and I closed the positions before the expiration. In this case, that was the right decision, as prices were not entirely stable, and we experienced a significant drop just before expiration. The coming weeks will remain tense. The spot oil price, which is the price actually traded, is already at $150 in some cases, and with Trump's 48-hour ultimatum, further escalation is quite possible. Additionally, the two largest Russian export ports are on fire, and exports have significantly decreased. Nevertheless, many in the market are currently very negative, and usually, the crowd is not correct. We will see. However, it is clear that many news-driven price movements are still possible.