Botje11

You would think its identical, but there are differences, so my guess is now, this looks good. just don't want to see it go below 73.5ish. I am going to increase a bit now, cause nice 7/8k profit already. what i often do now, is use several stops. 1: around 73k 2: around 70k gonna keep around 30% if these stops get hit

So far so good, up almost 6k on btc when I got in just above 67k. But, clear to see, the market doesn’t dare yet to push through because of all the uncertainties in the world. So patiently waiting before I increase. I think key level to break is around 79/80k.

So been a while since the last update. Markets been difficult lately, especially crypto. Stocks pumped and btc dumped. A lot things going one lately. I have been out for a while now, only did some small things here and there, but most were difficult to be honest. Anyway, think for now, we reached a point, you take a stance or simply stay out. You can’t use any tight stops of 10/15% or so. I think, that the markets will eventually go up coming 3-6 months. But if btc goes down to 60/55k first, I can’t say. But unless we see any extreme macro events, think we will see bull moves coming months. So I got in today, nothing big but decent. Only going to increase if we stay above 75/80k for several days in a row. Stop is very wide as mentioned, cause past 4/5 months has all been about stop hunting, you don’t wanna get caught in that

As mentioned yesterdays break of the low, I am out. Have been sitting on my hands since. If this candle turns green, at least a close above 86kish, would mean a good reversal day. This one is bigger than the one 3/4 days ago, so by definition means it’s more meaningful. So waiting for that

Again, it looked good, btc went up 4k from the low. Stocks markets pumping pretty good. But once again btc shittin the bed. Important it makes a higher low here, so can’t break yesterdays lows, cause then I will close it all. So bears still in favour, think if btc can reach 95/6k, then I i thjnk 60/70% chance this short term bear is over. Doesn’t mean it will just pump up, but 60/70% chance the low is set. But not there yet, btc finds it very difficult to hold each small recovery it does, so pretty weak still. So I am still cautious, not buying more, want to see that 95/6 first get touched. From there I will prob buy more after we see a correction happen from that 95/6.

The hurting keeps going on 😆 Just bought another small batch around 89k so I am around 30% now. But NVDIA numbers are coming in today, think the whole market is waiting on that. So a gamble here, if those are bad and stock markets dumps, I am closing it all pretty fast. So some hopium here it will be good. The setup for a low is there, but it clearly need a hand

So the candle close was okay, but not super convincing. Was hoping for 94k and higher. Now coming 2 days will be important. Tomorrow is allowed to be a sideways day, but close has to be above 92k, otherwise big chance bull attempt has failed. Current candle or the next has to close above 95/96k. Only way to say the this downtrend has ended, is to see 1 big green candle of 4/6k points. But that can mostly only be said in hindsight unfortunately. So still a lot of weakness, but today was a first decent day. Think if the stock market wouldn’t have been that weak today, btc prob would have done a lot better. Past weeks, crypto underperformed a lot compared to the stock market. But past 2 days, you could see btc wanted to go up, but the bearish stock market kept dragging it down. So we need to see the stock market recover coming days, for btc to recover as well. So still uncertain here, and I only got my first batch still as mentioned earlier today.

First good candle in a while now. Ideally closes above 94k at least, the higher the better. But if this bull attempt fails, big chance we start to go lower again. So I am prob gonna close again if this candle starts to fail. A close above 92k would be 50/50 I think, below would be in favour of bears

Market been pretty damn shitty past weeks. Got out few weeks ago already when it went below my entry. Looked like a perfect trade, went up to 116k even, but never sold cause thought would see much more. I tried 1 more attempts past weeks at 103k but took my losses after it went below 100/99k. Now, since yesterday seems btc getting dragged by weak stock market, so could be, if thos hey stable, market might go up. Now i don’t expect a V shape recovery here, so only gonna start with a % here. So risking small amount once again. Around 92k now

To give an impression, last candle was okay, shows an attempt of buyers, but doesn’t say a lot yet. Now, simply waiting for current candle, should close above 105.7 at least and preferably above 106kish. Then there might be a decent chance that bulls do a serious attempt here

That 4h candle of my last update, shit the bed unfortunately. Showing weakness, but says bulls are trying. But all in all, not saying much and favours bears here. Still just in with a small part and waiting. Same story as month ago, I am not willing to risk as much anymore, which also means that I fine with only having a small size in if btc starts to pump like crazy. Trying to get more on certainties than otherwise now for this final stage of the rally.

Now after having waited patiently, going to start to get in again, so partially. Big chance below 108/7ish I will get out again. 113kish is a clear resistance. At 116 either want to see a consolidation or it has to push all the way through to 120k. So not 117k and than same day below 115/1114k again

I am mostly neutral by the way, haven’t been that in a long time, cause it’s risky now. Think Sunday night, so Monday when markets open (futures market that is), will be very important. To see if the panic is still there or not. So going to wait for that first

Eth pumped 10%ish since my last update, but since then it’s been disappointing. Btc is pretty decent, but have a feel ETH is still leading. So, there is a good chance eth might make a bigger ABC correction. So this pump last week wasn’t the start of the next rally, but just wave B. If so, we could see support break, typical stop hung of the big 4200/4300 support zone. Shake out bulls and then go up. I have decreased my positions, locking in profit, so sizes are smaller and easier to hold even below 4000. So won’t miss the rally if I am wrong. Think 3900/4000 should be the max though.

What am I not risking so much? Cause I/we went from btc 17/30k up to 110k, even though I think 140/50 is possible, would be very dump to see it reach 130k and just sit until it drops to 80 or 60 or whatever. Same goes for stock market. Dow was around 29/30k when I called for the rally, 46k now. SPX was around 3600/3900, now at 6600 almost, even if it goes to 7500 (which is a lot), not gonna just sit and hold. I still have positions, and good ones, but gonna get out faster when needed. But mostly, not simply gonna try to get back in again as I did several times past 2/3 years. Cause I think the end is nearing (in time). Markets always have opportunities, even though this rally since 2022/3 was pretty exceptional, don’t need to catch 100% of if, I feel we are at like 80% already

Didn’t know my last update was already 3.5 months ago 😬. Anyway, markets look pretty okay. Stock markets still on track for more I think. It reached the targets by far I had in mind end of 2022, but think there is more potential. About btc, looks pretty okay. Today we had CPI numbers where the whole market was waiting for a week long, only to see they were as expected, so nothing pushing it either side, so can assume the trend will continue. I think it’s up. ETH is my guess what we should look at. It finally outperformed BTC for a very long time now. But past week or 2 it’s been weak, but could be nothing more than a consolidation. There is room for some more downside, for me 114k ish was the max to be honest, when we broke the 112k while back. But it held the breakout zone when looking at the daily chart. So correction/retest was too much IMO, but doesn’t mean it can’t work. But for me it does mean, there isn’t a lot of time for btc to break above 120k. Think it has to happen within a week or so. My guess is, we are going up and I personally have put my money where my mouth is well, so I am long in across almost all assets. From stocks to crypto. But I am not risking as much anymore for that final leg. I pulled my biggest profits ever past 2.5 years, betting on that final big rally while the market was bearish back then at the lows. I think the opposite will come the coming months, whole market will be bullish, then I will prob turn bear. But not yet. Still bull, but as said, not going to risk the big profits I made. Treating this last leg as a swing trade, not a long term trade as I did in 2022