Charles Dereeper Finance

Ranking #centralbank #balancesheet to #GDP These numbers dont mean so much but... it doesnt look like the US #dollar will crash in the first wave...

How much excess #liquidity central banks from G25 (90% world GDP) have injected since 5 years to get our lovely #inflation ? I spent 1 month to get all the datas and figure out a way to evaluate The tricky part was to put everything together in USD, from the injection of LCU M2 minus the LCU #GDP growth and inflation I scrap some data LCU from #IMF. Thanks to them It is not perfect but I decided to average the #USD month by month to have a yearly price and then a 5 years price. There is surely a better way to do but in the end, but not big difference In the last 12 months central banks from G25 injected in excess 4.15T$... hum hum... very very bad girls... are the poors addicted to lower their spending power or are they just monkeys just good to hope the futur will be better than the past when the opposite can be witness every months ? In the last 5 years, the excess injection were 11.47T$... 11 Trillions dollars and truth is it will be more in the future because of the after covid and consequences like deflation of M2 for many countries unable to repeat These numbers are very important because they are highly correlated at 6 months with the trend of SP500 I spent 7 years to study how monetarist inflation spread into risky assets The guy who masters the trend of inflation, masters the trend of the markets I failed thousand times to find the adequate ratios of assets... until this year 2025. I got a rotation of 3 assets which match perfectly for decade with the inflation trend Funny is the official fight for a stable inflation... when in reality, 90% of world #economy get a shot of 4 trillions this year only of fresh new and useless money... Everybody knows China is around to mess with the world using proxies with genius to get their revenge of queen victoria But who knows that South Korea is messing badly with 6.6% of the world excess liquidity when their GDP is only 1.6%... China, Japan and Korea are responsible for 76% of the bad M2 growth in the last 5 years... only 3 countries cheating 7 billions humans. Thank you guys... the world could be nicer if you were not here... but thank you to be here to help me to make my money with your fake inflation

How much excess #Liquidity a central bank need to inflate a country ? I used the data LCU, local #Currency unit to evaluate all the 25 countries ranking by #GDP for a total of 90% world GDP I strongly believe 1Y rate of change means nothing in comparaison with the 5Y numbers I calculated excess liquidity by using the #M2 and the IMF GDP LCU 2025 Below, i got a clear link between an excess liquidity higher than 30% and the #inflation rate The list of countries implicated by the central bank and their hidden goal of inflation is now available with my ranking How to use these data ? First im going to update every month so everybody can get access to the ending game of central banks And second, we know inflation is the ennemy of a currency. It needs high #InterestRates to compensate high inflation. Each time these countries lower their rate, the currency is weak and at risk My idea is to spread CHF, with low excess liquidity and local deflation against weak currency of the top list in red color. i m very fond of spread rate 2Y between these countries. I dont see how currencies with high inflation / high excess liquidity could resist against a negative divergence of rates Let me know how you could use these data

#chatGPT has 3 years... was launch in nov 2022 #GOLD = +145% #QQQ = +131% Basket index 10 #AI stocks = +281% AI stocks = 2X GOLD...

#ISM PMI is blocked since 3 years below 50 #GFTI a pretty good precursor of ISM is diverging deeply since 2025, betting for more growth The big question is the exact amount of cut rate by the fed to push up ISM or the exact amount of QE is necessary It is hard to buy risky assets non profitable or #cyclical industrial stocks when nobody seems to be convinced by a new cycle of #GDP growth coming soon...

Today is the end of #QT by the #Fed Covid Area with all its excess is done Goldmand sachs Research projections are a modest rise in 2026 It looks like we will witness a big shift from MBS assets to T-Bills in the balance sheet of the Fed These type of QE are link to #inflation rise most of the time in the past

It should have been positive for risky #assets but... China didnt cut anything this year, only one time in may with 0.1% And USA cut 2 times with total of 0.50% And Japan did rate hike 1 time USA + China + Japan #GDP = 54T$ All these 168 cuts concern only half the world economy even if it is called global #centralbank policy

About the storage of #value January 2020 : correlation between #btc and #qqq was -40%... it was the last time BTC was doing his btc job... since then, correlation is positive with nasdaq at 80% for a few weeks BTC should be renamed high vol non profitable tech stock, instead of his abused title "savor of the humanity and the poors"... against #BIS and its 50 central banks Because in 2025, hard fact and truth tell us a different story than the legend : correlation of BTC is north 50% with the GS index non profitable tech... should be negative... oupsss Lets create a basket of high achievers 1 - more than 100B market cap #nyse and #nasdaq 2 - 12 month sales growth > 10% 3 - 5 year sales growth > 100% 4 - 12 month EPS growth >15% 5 - 5 year EPS growth > 150% And lets compare #gold, BTC and performance of theses 12 companies in one month. Who really will do the job of storage for investors ? GOLD 4269 BTC 90.500 #AVGO 402.96 #LLY 1075.47 #AMD 217.53 #APH 169.8 #NVDA 177 #KLAC 1159.07 #GOOG 320.12 #QCOM 168.09 #IBKR 65.02 #ANET 130.68 #ISRG 573.48 #BX 144.92

G25 (90% of world GDP) : a look into the percentage of M2 / GDP 7 countries with high inflation get low ratio because the local #money loose very fast it value in nominal All asia countries have insane amount of money circulating against #GDP, from 170% to 240% Western countries have medium excess too of M2 at 100% Only 4 countries inside the G25 are doing good with a 60% to 80% ratio mixed with moderate #Inflation These countries are the best place to park your investment 1 - SAUDI ARABIA 2 - IRELAND 3 - POLAND 4 - USA

#Sp493 against #mag7 2 months and a bear market in blue color Mag7 are very up and destroying the potential edge in sp500 puts That is the problem...

How to edge for a bear market ? Top 10 of #SP500 = 42% market cap Right now, there are more new lows 52 weeks than new highs... still SP500 is rising If Top 10 goes up, SP500 is neutralised The opposite is true too... if SP490 is up and #MAG7 is down... SP500 is not anymore the solution

#uup dollar index ready to lift it up ? Against all the bets from all the world, the most crowded trade of 2025, short dollar... Everybody are explaining us that #dollar is done, bashing and bashing and bashing... #brics are gonna kill the 3 centuries currency... Yep but it seems that certificate of death will not be issued in the next 6 months... The dollar index tested his support and then tried and succeed to break out the high

#TLT touch and fail the trendline we are not done yet with high interest rate ? More deficit ? More hedge about the future with high inflation ? The most accurate scenario is a #Trump gaining the control of the FED and the new come back of QE Sure the trend line will be tested again in 2026...

#msci offered almost a 9% gains yesterday One of my biggest bet so far The value mecanism is a reliable tool Soon or later, prices catch up the accounting figures

Money is never easy in trading except this trade... Short #php and buy #chf Filipinos slashed rate to 4.75% They cant fight the king chf... Lets short every rebounds we got and lets make #money

#btc rebound on 108k as expressed in the last post Correlation is still working with world M2$ Target at 123k

#BTC late against World M2 I push only 4 weeks forward the green color #M2 I know people like 12 weeks BTC has a target in 1 month of 123K, north +10% rise At 108K we have a weekly support with close stop below 103K Ratio 1 to 2 for win/loss situation

Excess liquidity #G10 is everything for assets Lets check #EUROZONE today in Euros metrics #GDP estimate 2025 = 15.77Teuros GDP 2024 = 15.2Teuros +3.08% #CPI sept 25 = 129.43 CPI aug 24 = 127.03 +1.88% #M2 sept 25 = 15.7TE M2 aug 24 = 15.4TE +1.94% 2025 M2/GDP = 100% #EXCESSLIQUIDITY Eurozone 1 year = +0.74% of GDP Debt 2025 = 15.55TE #debt 2024 = 14.54TE +6.94% Debt / GDP Euros 2025 = 98.60% Debt / GDP Euros 2024 = 95.65% +3.08% 10Y bond Germany = +2.55% Real 10Y = +0.67% 10Y bond France = +3.35% Real 10Y = +1.47%

Excess liquidity #G10 is everything for assets Lets check #JAPAN today in Yen metrics #GDP estimate 2025 = 633Tyen GDP 2024 = 609.29Tyen +3.89% #CPI sept 25 = 112.1 CPI aug 24 = 108.9 +2.93% #M2 sept 25 = 1270TY M2 aug 24 = 1250TY +1.6% #EXCESSLIQUIDITY Japan 1 year = +0.64% Japan is almost flat after decades of craziness... 1 year clean for the drug addicted of wild #M2. BoJ is in rehab hahahahaha... even #charliesheen did it... Debt 2025 = 1332TY #debt 2024 = 1212TY +9.9% Debt / GDP Yen 2025 = 210.4% Debt / GDP Yen 2024 = 208.2% +1.05% 10Y bond = +1.7% Real 10Y = -1.23%

We need 70 barils of oil to compensate 1 ounce of gold Last time we got this was during covid Since 100 years the average #OIL / #GOLD ratio is aroung 20 barils for 1 ounce Are we witnessing a new area ? A new paradigm ? Or just regular craziness before mean reversion to history prices ?