Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش

מאמר שלי @Haaretz בנוגע לצורך להימנע מהפיכת "מלחמת הנצח" למדיניותה הקבועה של מדינת ישראל https://t.co/uOus2Z5qrj

Over the past week, I had the opportunity to brief a delegation of journalists from the #Philippines on the current state of the confrontation between Iran and the United States. The discussion reinforced an important point: for Asian countries, what happens in the Strait of Hormuz is not a distant Middle Eastern crisis. It is an immediate economic and energy-security concern. The broader confrontation involving the United States, Iran, and Israel and, above all, Iran’s effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, has sent extraordinary shockwaves through Asian markets. Many Asian economies remain deeply dependent on energy supplies originating in the Persian Gulf. It is therefore unsurprising that there is growing interest across the region in a fundamental question: Who will control the Strait, and under what conditions will normal commercial shipping resume? My assessment was relatively pessimistic, for one central reason: there is no realistic return to the status quo of February 28. Even under an optimistic scenario in which Washington and Tehran reach an agreement, restoring normal maritime traffic will take time. A political agreement is not the same thing as an operational return to normality. Iranian bureaucracy will have to translate political understandings into implementation, while shipping and insurance companies will need convincing evidence that hostilities will not resume before they are prepared to send tankers through the Strait at previous levels. And that is the optimistic scenario. Under a more pessimistic scenario, the United States and Iran fail to reach an agreement and disruption to shipping through Hormuz continues for many months. Even if some form of accommodation is eventually reached, Iran is unlikely to voluntarily surrender the strategic leverage it has gained over the Strait. Control of Hormuz has become not only a military asset, but also a central bargaining chip. I also emphasized that proposals to simply “bypass Hormuz” need to be treated with caution. There are alternatives and they should certainly be developed, but geography imposes very real constraints. Building additional pipelines, terminals, storage capacity, and alternative export routes is possible; doing so at sufficient scale and speed to replace the volumes normally moving through Hormuz is another matter entirely. Infrastructure can mitigate geography, but it cannot eliminate it, certainly not in the short or medium term. The key question, therefore, is no longer simply when the fighting ends. It is what regional order emerges afterward, what degree of leverage Iran retains over one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, and how quickly markets will believe that any new arrangement is durable. For the United States, this means that reopening Hormuz and restoring confidence in freedom of navigation should be viewed not as a technical consequence of ending the conflict, but as a strategic objective in its own right. For Asia, the stakes could hardly be higher. tribune.net.ph/2026/08/14/hor… https://t.co/jVapYb0PiA

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I understand the desire to find a military option that forces Iran back to the negotiating table on terms favorable to the United States. The problem is that a major campaign against Iran’s energy infrastructure is unlikely to produce that outcome. A serious strike on Iranian energy facilities would almost certainly trigger a much broader Iranian response against energy and other critical infrastructure across the Gulf. Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis would also likely join the escalation. Gulf states, knowing that they would bear much of the immediate cost, would have strong reasons to oppose such a campaign. There is also a political risk inside Iran. Once ordinary Iranians conclude that the objective is no longer to pressure the Islamic Republic but to inflict massive damage on Iran itself, the regime gains an opportunity to rally the country around the flag. Many Iranians who despise the Islamic Republic may still oppose a war they perceive as targeting their country and their livelihoods. So, Would Iran suffer? Absolutely. Would ordinary Iranians suffer? Significantly. Would Tehran retaliate and attempt to impose major economic costs on the Gulf and the global economy? Almost certainly. Would such a campaign guarantee the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz? No. Would it force the Islamic Republic to surrender its positions on issues it considers fundamental to Iran’s security and survival? That is far more doubtful. This is the distinction Washington needs to keep in mind: the ability to inflict tremendous damage on Iran is not the same as the ability to compel Iranian capitulation. A campaign against Iran’s energy infrastructure could leave Iran substantially poorer and weaker while simultaneously producing a wider regional war, severe disruption to the global economy, greater suffering for Iranian civilians, and potentially even stronger domestic support for the regime. Military power can impose extraordinary costs. The harder question is whether those costs produce the political concessions you actually want. In this case, there is very little reason to assume they will. Iran is far from invincible. That is not the question. The real question is whether the United States and its regional partners are prepared to pay the enormous costs of a prolonged and escalating war with Tehran without any assurance that those costs will fundamentally change Iran’s negotiating position. Before escalating, Washington needs to answer a much harder question: not whether Iran can be hurt, it clearly can, but what level of military, economic, and regional disruption the United States is willing to absorb if Tehran chooses escalation over capitulation. And there is every reason to believe that, on issues the Iranian leadership considers existential, it may do exactly that. #iran

مقابلة معي @AlArabiya @RashaNabil حول المقال الذي كتبته @haaretzcom أن إسرائيل لن تتمكن من الاندماج في الشرق الأوسط من دون إحراز تقدم ملموس في القضية الفلسطينية. شددتُ في المقابلة على أنه ينبغي أن نتوقع أنه حتى في حال حدوث تغيير في الحكم في إسرائيل، فمن المرجح ألا نشهد تغييرًا في السياسة تجاه الفلسطينيين. لكنني حرصتُ في المقال على التأكيد أن إسرائيل لا يمكنها أن تتوقع المشاركة في مشاريع إقليمية والمضي قدمًا في مسار التطبيع، وفي الوقت نفسه الاستمرار في سياستها الحالية تجاه الفلسطينيين. كما أن تغيير النظام في إيران لن يحل لإسرائيل جميع مشاكلها في الشرق الأوسط. والمشكلة هي أن الجمهور في إسرائيل لا يدرك حجم الضرر الدولي الناجم عن استمرار السياسة الحالية.

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