Coin Post – Money, Investments, Bitcoin

If you invested $100 a month in the S&P 500 starting in 1957, your total capital today would be $3.4M with a total investment of just $83k 💵 The key factor in successful investing isn't the size of your starting capital, but your time horizon. The earlier your money starts working, the more powerful the compound interest effect becomes. Let's compare two strategies (retiring at age 65): ▶️ Investor A: started at age 25 and invested regularly for just 10 years. Total invested: $24k. At age 35, they stopped contributing completely but left the accumulated capital working in the market. ▶️ Investor B: started at age 35 and contributed continuously for 30 years until retirement. Total invested: $72k. The result: by age 65, Investor A will have accumulated a larger portfolio while investing 3 times less of their own money. This is because over the long run, the primary driver of portfolio growth isn't personal contributions, but reinvested returns (interest on interest). Investor A's capital enjoyed 40 years of uninterrupted compound growth. Investor B, despite their discipline and larger contributions, simply couldn't make up for that lost decade. Simple math: 🟢 $100 invested for 10 years at a 5% annual yield brings $63 in net profit 🔴 $1,000 invested for 1 year at the same 5% annual yield brings only $50 💬 Don't wait until you have "large sums" to get started. In investing, time always beats volume: putting $100 to work today is more effective than trying to invest $1,000 in 10 years. Does this approach work in the crypto market? Yes, if you invest long-term and pick reliable assets (BTC). It's trickier with altcoins, only a select few tokens can be considered actual investments. The other 99% are purely speculative: they might look more profitable in the moment, but if you don't exit at the peak, all that's left to do is count your losses.

Michael Burry is furious about the AI stock rally, he’s increased his short positions on Nebius, Micron, Oracle, and the Semiconductor ETF. Meanwhile, Nebius spiked +34% yesterday 😡 👇 Take a closer look at Nebius. While Michael Burry is shorting it (he shorts pretty much everything, to be fair), I’m actually accumulating this stock. Nebius is essentially a European AI infrastructure play born out of the Yandex split. Following a complete business split and the sale of all its Russian assets in 2024, the company rebranded, renamed itself, and emerged as an independent Western AI firm. Nebius falls under the high-risk, high-reward category, so expect heavy volatility, it’s best bought on dips. Why is it considered a high-risk play? High Capital Expenditures (Capex). The company is currently in an aggressive scaling phase, requiring massive investments in hardware purchases, which is temporarily weighing on its free cash flow. Still, there’s definitely a strong smell of big profits ahead ✊

US inflation continues to decline (3.4% in July), despite the closed Strait of Hormuz and total uncertainty as to when this will end 🇺🇸 The stock market is reacting positively in anticipation of an extended Fed rate hike pause at the September 16 meeting. Especially given that the three previous S&P 500 pullbacks since summer 2023 were completely bought up, yielding an average return of 19%. 30-year statistics show that the S&P 500 hit a new high after passing the peak in 13 out of 17 cases over the following 6 months. CFRA analysts have already raised their 12-month target for the index to 8,650 (+11%). 💸 This is happening because the AI sector, as the main driver of stock growth, continues to deliver strong earnings reports. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz situation is having less and less impact on global markets; the only remaining risk factor in the Middle East right now is a full-scale regional war. We previously discussed the lack of liquidity in the markets, which is restraining stock growth and completely preventing Bitcoin from turning around. A potential future rise in the S&P 500 will support BTC, but it won't trigger a full bull market on its own. For that, we need either a major positive catalyst, like real and lasting peace in Iran, the passage of the Clarity Act, a new major buyer like Saylor, or perhaps all of the above. Without these factors, the crypto market is left waiting for an influx of liquidity, which could nevertheless begin before the end of the year. Therefore, the current situation for BTC looks as follows: 🔴 We cannot confirm that the bottom is in 🔴 We cannot promise an imminent "to the moon" 🟢 We cannot advise staying out of the market, as the current price is definitely a good entry point for building spot positions for growth in 2027–2029

The best indicator for Bitcoin's bottom right now is the crossover of Realized Losses and Realized Profits 💸 The video shows that the indicator worked perfectly in previous cycles and hasn't yet given a signal that the bottom has been reached. Analytics platforms hide Realized Losses and Realized Profits behind a paid subscription, so for you, we created a new similar indicator for TradingView (see screenshot), which you can add in 5 minutes and use completely free 🏀 How to add the indicator: 1. Log into your TradingView account, open the BTC/USD candlestick chart, select the 1W timeframe, and switch to a logarithmic scale. 2. In the bottom right corner, open the menu (the circle icon with dots) and select "Pine Editor". 3. A code window will open; clear the default template and paste the code below: //@version=5 indicator("BTC Realized P/L Exact Video [Final]", shorttitle="RPL Video Final", overlay=true) // ========================================== // 1. DEFAULT SETTINGS // ========================================== ema_len = input.int(59, "EMA Smoothing Length (weeks)", minval=1) spread_mult = input.float(44.0, "Line Spread (Separate yellow/blue)", minval=1.0) level_shift = input.float(0.18, "Line Level Below Price (18% of BTC)", minval=0.05, maxval=0.5) // ========================================== // 2. DATA AND EMA SMOOTHING // ========================================== sopr_raw = request.security("GLASSNODE:BTC_SOPR", "W", close) sopr_smooth = ta.ema(sopr_raw, ema_len) // Baseline below candles (18% of BTC price) base_line = ta.sma(close, 80) * level_shift // ========================================== // 3. LINE SPREAD CALCULATION // ========================================== dev = (sopr_smooth - 1.0) * spread_mult profit_line = base_line * math.exp(dev) loss_line = base_line * math.exp(-dev) // ========================================== // 4. LINE PLOTTING // ========================================== p_prof = plot(profit_line, "Realized Profit (Yellow)", color=#FFC107, linewidth=2) p_loss = plot(loss_line, "Realized Loss (Blue)", color=#2196F3, linewidth=2) // ========================================== // 5. CAPITULATION ZONES AND BUY SIGNAL // ========================================== is_capitulation = loss_line > profit_line // Red background and fill between lines bgcolor(is_capitulation ? color.new(#FF5252, 85) : na, title="Bottom Zone") fill(p_loss, p_prof, color = is_capitulation ? color.new(#FF5252, 60) : na, title="Gap Fill") // Buy signal triangle below candles at the crossover moment signal_buy = ta.crossover(loss_line, profit_line) plotshape(signal_buy, title="Buy Signal", style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=#FF5252, size=size.normal) 4. Click "Save" and "Add to chart" at the top of the editor. No indicator provides a 100% guarantee, but this one has worked flawlessly through all previous cycles. Save this indicator for yourself and share it with your friends 👍

Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has continued to rise after reaching an ATH (All-Time High) in 13 out of 17 cases – gaining an average of +6.3% over the following six months. That is precisely what Wall Street bankers are pricing into their forecasts: between 7,900 and 8,100 points by the end of the year 🔼 The story about the AI bubble being a major risk factor doesn't look convincing, as U.S. pre-tax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP have hit a record 14%. The numbers behind company stock growth may look bubble-like, but unlike in 2000, there is a solid underlying foundation in the form of hundreds of billions in investments and revenue. PrimeXBT. However, the S&P 500's path to 8,000 won't necessarily be a straight line. Here is what could go wrong: ▶️ U.S. autumn congressional midterm/special elections, which traditionally trigger a market correction ▶️ Escalation in the Middle East if the war spreads across the entire region. Today, Yemeni Houthis struck Saudi Arabia again ▶️ A revaluation of the AI sector, despite strong revenues, Big Tech has issued $200 billion in debt bonds since the start of the year (double the amount for the whole of 2025) Where does BTC go in that scenario? If triggered, any of these factors could easily push the crypto market to a bottom below $55k. The subsequent resolution of these issues, however, could be the very positive catalyst that puts an end to the crypto winter 🤑

Buffett is buying again! Berkshire Hathaway bought more shares in Q2 than it sold for the first time in 3.5 years – totaling $19.8 billion in purchases 💸 Buffett stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, retaining his position as Chairman of the Board. Since January 1, Berkshire has been led by Greg Abel, who isn't hesitant to spend the cash reserves accumulated by Buffett – during Q2, the cash pile dropped from $397.4 billion to $365.5 billion. The last time Buffett was a net buyer of stocks was 3.5 years ago, right at the tail end of the 2022 correction; since then, the S&P 500 has gained 114%. The question is: did Berkshire Hathaway change its market strategy after the CEO handover, or has the market itself shifted to where waiting for better prices no longer makes sense? 🤑

5 short AI prompts that perform the work of a $200k hedge fund analyst ▶️ Narrative Scanner – identifies and evaluates current trends in the crypto market Act as a crypto research analyst at a top fund. Identify the 5 strongest narratives forming in the market right now. For each one give me: the 3 tokens leading it with market caps, the specific catalyst driving attention, which stage of the attention cycle it's in (insiders only / CT discovery / retail euphoria / exhausted), how much upside is realistically left, and the one event that would kill the narrative overnight. Rank them by risk-adjusted opportunity, not hype. ▶️ Tokenomics Breakdown – a detailed analysis of tokenomics with a buying verdict Perform VC-level due diligence on [token]. Cover: circulating vs total supply and what % unlocks in the next 12 months with exact dates, who the top 10 holders are and their cost basis if findable, emission schedule and who receives it, whether the token has real cash flow or manufactured utility, and how insiders exit if they want to. Then give me a verdict in one sentence: would a professional buy this, farm this, or fade this, and why. ▶️ Smart Money Tracker – tracks where whales deposit funds before a pump Teach me to track smart money like an on-chain analyst. Give me a full workflow using free tools only: how to find the wallets that bought [token] before it moved, how to check what else those wallets hold right now, how to set alerts for their next moves, and the 4 patterns that separate real accumulation from a team wallet building exit liquidity. Format it as a repeatable 15-minute routine I can run every Sunday. ▶️ Thesis Destroyer – tests your investment idea Here is my trade: [entry, target, stop, reasoning]. Your job is to make me not take it. Argue against my thesis like a skeptical senior trader with 15 years of experience: the 3 strongest reasons this fails, the data I'm ignoring, what the other side of my trade knows that I don't, and exactly what price action would prove me wrong. If the thesis survives your attack, tell me the optimal way to size and structure it. ▶️ Risk Assessment – creates a custom risk management system for your portfolio Build my complete risk management system for a $[X] portfolio. Include: position sizing formula based on stop distance, maximum portfolio heat at any time, rules for when I'm allowed to add to winners, a drawdown circuit breaker that forces me to stop trading, conditions for rotating to stables, and a 5-point checklist I must pass before every entry. Make it strict enough that following it feels annoying. One page, ready to pin. Save these prompts for later, and don't forget to add a condition to answer in your preferred language before using them. Drop some serious heat 🔥 and we'll post Part 2 with 5 more prompts!

Where is the iPhone most expensive in 2026?

The number of users looking to stake ETH is mirroring the 2023 trend right before the surge from $1 600 to $4 900 🤑 If history repeats itself, Ether will see a parabolic rise, though the price could drop below $1 700 before the pump kicks off.

In this post about the Palantir stock, people wrote to us saying that it’s overheated, has a crazy P/E ratio, that the admin is dragging people into the stock market at all-time highs, and so on 🕑 They advised us to pay attention to IBM instead, claiming the price looks good right now. OK, challenge accepted 🤔 Comparing IBM and Palantir clearly illustrates the classic battle between a mature, debt-burdened value company and an aggressive, hyper-efficient growth company. Below is a detailed breakdown of the key metrics for both companies. Spoiler: lots of text 👇 1. Financial Health. In this category, Palantir is the undisputed winner, boasting one of the safest balance sheets on the market. • Cash-to-Debt: PLTR: 37.87, IBM: 0.13. For every dollar of debt, Palantir has nearly $38 in cash and cash equivalents, whereas IBM has critically low cash relative to its debt burden ($7.17 billion in cash vs. $58.73 billion in long-term debt). Palantir effectively carries no debt burden, while IBM relies heavily on debt financing. • Debt-to-Equity: PLTR: 0.03 (minimal debt level). IBM: 1.90 (high reliance on borrowed capital). • Growth Rates. Palantir shows overwhelming superiority when it comes to business scaling dynamics: Revenue Growth (1-year): PLTR: +62.7%, IBM: +6.6%. EBITDA Growth (1-year): PLTR: +348.6%, IBM: +35.0%. 2. Profitability & Capital Efficiency. Palantir leads in return on sales, but most importantly, Palantir generates economic value far more efficiently. Operating Margin (%): PLTR: 38.13%, IBM: 18.39%. Palantir's software business model enables it to keep over 42 cents of operating profit for every dollar of revenue, whereas IBM's figure is half that. 3. Capital Efficiency (ROIC vs WACC). Palantir's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) stands at an astronomical 151.19% against a Cost of Capital (WACC) of just 14.65%. The business is generating massive added value. IBM: ROIC is 8.71%, which is less than its Cost of Capital (WACC at 8.83%). IBM is effectively operating in the negative when it comes to creating economic value, as its return on investment doesn't even cover the cost of raising capital. The only area where IBM wins is dividends: Dividend Yield: IBM: 2.92%. PLTR: 0.00%. Palantir pays no dividends, reinvesting all profits back into technology development—which is completely fine for a business like this. Who needs a measly 3% a year from IBM anyway? � IBM is a textbook representative of conservative value. It is bought purely for a predictable dividend stream and stability, but beating even the S&P 500 index with it is unlikely. � Palantir is a powerful growth driver. It has an impeccable balance sheet and phenomenal growth rates. Could Palantir drop by 30%? Easily—and if it does, that just means it's time to buy more. In fact, I'm waiting for it. Could it deliver multi-fold returns (multi-bagger) and outperform other companies? Given this momentum, it would be foolish to think otherwise ✊

Following up on the Palantir post: back in 2022-2023, no one believed in the company either, and then the stock surged by 3 200% 🔼

I am reviewing Palantir's report now. This company definitely deserves our attention, despite the crazy 8x growth over the last few years. Very strong financial performance across the board, from YoY revenue growth of 93% to margins. Everything is growing at a rapid pace, and there is no sign of a slowdown. What is the main difference between Palantir and other AI companies? It is essentially the creator of the "operating system for modern warfare." Their main objective is to take the chaos of fragmented data and turn it into actionable decisions on the battlefield. Unfortunately, this is our new reality—local wars. Everything is moving toward building up military strength, and budgets will be channeled into this sector. While other companies are helping us create videos with cats, Palantir is securing contracts for the military. And such government contracts always represent huge growth potential across all metrics, especially since there isn't really an alternative. There has already been a 47% correction from the peak. It makes sense to start entering with 1/4 of the planned position now. Since there is no sign of an economic slowdown yet, it looks like the stock market will continue to perform.

Yesterday, Spotify (SPOT) released its earnings report. It is another interesting company from a financial standpoint, despite "investors" disliking the report and the stock price falling right now. But the crowd is rarely right 😃 Here we have an example of a classic and highly successful business turnaround. For a long time, Spotify was a growth stock with no net profit, but over the last two years, it has transformed into a highly efficient, profitable business with phenomenal cash flows. 🔵 Spotify became the first audio platform in the world to reach 300 million premium subscribers (+9% YoY) 🔵 Revenue in the latest report grew by +14% YoY 🔵 Record and expanding margins: gross margin rose to 33.4%, and all other margin types are growing as well 🔵 Free cash flow reached €797 million for the quarter 🔵 No debt issues and a solid moat 🔵 Forecasts for the next three years show double-digit growth All of this points to a great business whose share price seems bound to grow. The current P/E stands at 38.13, while the Forward P/E is 32.71 (which is positive when declining). By classic value investing standards (P/E < 15), it is not cheap, but for an industry leader with annual EBITDA growth of 92.9%, this is a very reasonable valuation. Buying Spotify at current prices can be done through cautious dollar-cost averaging, but a 15–20% correction from current levels would offer an ideal scenario for aggressively building a position.

Oil prices are plummeting, the S&P 500 is hitting a new all-time high, and Bitcoin is, as always 🕯 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed progress in negotiations with Iran; the Strait of Hormuz may indeed be fully reopened tomorrow. 🔴 Brent crude – $80 (↓3.78%) 🟢 S&P 500 – 7 674 (↑0.98%) ⏺ BTC – $64 012 (↑0.89%) ⚠️ Iran continues to demand control over the Strait of Hormuz, along with the right to charge tolls for passage. But if Trump figures out how to spin this as yet another victory and agrees to this concession, then oil will rebound to $70, the fund will continue to rise, and BTC will have a chance for a local rally to $67k. Donald won’t let us down, will he 🇺🇸

AI revenues aren’t growing fast enough to cover the investments 💸 The Economist calculated that at the current rate of AI investment, companies would need to generate $2.5 trillion in annual revenue just to break even. That’s more than the combined revenue of the entire tech sector. Right now, the total AI revenue for Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, and Meta sits at around $150 billion. Interestingly, AI usage peaked in mid-2025; since then, the percentage of employees using AI in companies has dropped from 46% to 33%. Rather than an outright abandonment of AI, this data likely reflects a shift toward free models, which are more than enough for the simple tasks most employees face. 💬 OpenAI and Anthropic might go public before the end of this year, which means they’ll have to show real AI revenue. And it’s crucial for those figures to look realistic in terms of return on investment.

Tweet volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum is at an all-time low. The last time we saw a lull like this was right before the 2021 bull run. Overall, everything adds up. The only real question is: which crypto projects will actually survive to see it? 😱

💡 Investment idea: a household name, yet undervalued by the market 💻 Microsoft is a diversified tech giant that generates revenue from enterprise software, cloud computing, and hardware. The business is built on three main pillars: 🔵 Microsoft 365 subscriptions…