Cryp2day

🇺🇸 Narrative of the Week: Inflation This week, U.S. inflation data became the main macro driver for the markets. First came CPI, followed by PPI — and both showed further signs of cooling price pressures. July CPI came in line with expectations, while PPI was even softer than forecast: producer prices were unchanged month-over-month versus an expected 0.2% increase. For the market, this is generally a positive signal: easing inflation reduces concerns about further Fed tightening. However, inflation is still well above the 2% target, so the question of rate cuts remains open. The big question now is whether cooling inflation can become a real catalyst for the markets — or simply give the Fed more reasons to keep rates where they are.

📉 Market Overview BTC: $62,860 ETH: $1,875 Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Fear) BTC Dominance: 58.83% 😎 As expected, we continue moving toward our next target, which I outlined last week — $62,284. As I said, the market is getting there through upward spikes, shaking out early stops, and luring in early longs. But despite all these manipulations, the market continues to fall. And I expect this downtrend to continue over the next few months. In my view, the situation may only start to change closer to the Congressional elections — perhaps the Republicans will once again need support from the markets and the economy to boost their approval ratings. ❗️ As for yesterday’s inflation data — the news was moderately positive, but we can see that the market is still selling off. Why? I already explained this on Wednesday: falling inflation could actually strengthen the Fed’s case for keeping rates at their current level. Why fix something that’s working?

🐻 Glassnode: Speculators are keeping BTC below $68.7K According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s short-term holders are currently underwater on average and are actively selling when the price attempts to recover. Their average entry price is around $68.7K, making this a key resistance level as many holders may look to exit at breakeven. At the same time, almost 9% of BTC’s total supply was acquired between $62K and $65K, further explaining why price remains stuck in this range. It looks like the market will have to deal with this massive cluster of positions before we see a decisive move.

🇺🇸 PPI is out! Alright guys, the latest producer inflation data is in. Now the big question is what it means for the Fed and BTC. 👉 Head over to Token Report’s X, check out the post, and show it some love with a like. I’d really appreciate the support!

📉 Market Overview BTC: $63,750 ETH: $1,888 Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Fear) BTC Dominance: 59.04% 🔥 We’re continuing to move lower, but don’t forget that we have more inflation data coming out today — this time, PPI. So I’d recommend opening any trades only after the data is released. The release time is the same: 15:30 UTC+3. Current consensus: - PPI YoY: 4.9% — forecast, previous 5.5% - PPI MoM: +0.2% — forecast, previous −0.3% Let’s wait for the data to come out and draw our conclusions afterward.

🇺🇸 U.S. CPI is out. The latest inflation data is in — but what does it mean for the Fed and BTC? 👉 Check the data on Token Report X.

🇺🇸 U.S. CPI is out. The latest inflation data is in — but what does it mean for the Fed and BTC? 👉 Check the data on Token Report X.

📉 Market Overview BTC: $64,015 ETH: $1,891 Fear & Greed Index: 27 (Fear) BTC Dominance: 59.09% 😎 Yesterday, we once again dipped below the higher-timeframe trendline, and now the market seems to be simply waiting for traders to build their positions. I wouldn’t open any trades at all until the inflation data is released. In the long run, I’m still bearish, but I wouldn’t rule out another shakeout to hunt for stops. We also saw renewed headlines about a potential deal between Iran and the U.S. But for now, the talks are focused solely on an agreement around reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

📉 Market Overview BTC: $64,096 ETH: $1,877 Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Fear) BTC Dominance: 59.25% 📈 Yesterday, $65,500 was the critical level for the bulls. Today, the main question will be how price behaves around the higher-timeframe trendline. Remember: the yellow line on the chart marks the upper boundary of the descending channel that formed back in late June. Larger, higher-timeframe patterns are generally more important in our analysis, which is exactly why manipulation around them can be especially tricky. By the way, Saylor’s Strategy has now been selling BTC for four weeks in a row — the company announced another sale yesterday. Quite a plot twist for the guy who built his reputation on buying Bitcoin nonstop.

↗️ Market Overview BTC: $65,325 ETH: $1,929 Fear & Greed Index: 30 (Fear) BTC Dominance: 59.45% 🤑 It was amusing to watch the price consistently hold right above the 20 EMA on the 4H chart (one of the most popular timeframes) throughout the weekend. Everything looks very bullish, and the rally could certainly continue. However, to confidently call this a manipulation, I’d first like to see a strong green candle, preferably on the daily timeframe. After that, there will be virtually no one left doubting the continuation of the rally. And in that scenario, the drop will be practically inevitable. This week, we have some pretty important releases on key inflation indicators. I think the market will use these figures to form its main expectations for the periods ahead.

🇺🇸 Narrative of the Week: CLARITY Act The U.S. Senate is trying to push the CLARITY Act through before the August recess, and lawmakers are running out of time. If passed, it could become one of the most important developments for the U.S. crypto market, establishing clearer rules for the industry and defining the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. The market expects the bill’s passage to become a strong bullish catalyst. But there’s one catch: what happens if the Senate fails to pass it before the recess?

📉 Market Overview BTC: $64,350 ETH: $1,906 Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Fear) BTC Dominance: 59.37% 😎 Nothing has really changed in the market since yesterday. I won’t repeat my thoughts — you can check out yesterday’s analysis. As always, though, I’ll remind you that the biggest moves can happen over the weekend, when the crowd is resting and asleep. So I wouldn’t rule out another manipulation move aimed at throwing us off. As for the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently having the biggest impact on the markets, things remain consistently unstable. Still, I believe in diplomatic efforts more than a full-scale escalation. What do you think? 👍 — peace is coming 🔥 — escalation is coming

↗️ Market Overview BTC: $64,840 ETH: $1,912 Fear & Greed Index: 25 (Extreme Fear) BTC Dominance: 59.39% 🤑 The market continues its manipulation, trying to convince us to jump back into longs. We have broken out of the boundaries of two descending channels, moved above the moving averages, and are retesting the $65K level once again. A breakout above this level should theoretically open the way for a strong rally and a real “gold rush.” ➡️ However, there are still no fundamental drivers supporting this move. Of course, some whales may currently be accumulating BTC amid expectations around the CLARITY Act. But that does not mean the final dip is off the table. The market still needs to make one more major move down, and that is the move I am currently waiting for.