Labyrinth Capital

INPL PRIVATE The waitlist is now open. INPL has been public for around two years. During that time, you’ve seen the market analysis, weekly views, live updates, trade ideas, wins, losses and results as they’ve happened. INPL Private is the private membership of the network, focused primarily on EURUSD and GBPUSD. The idea is simple. The week starts with the outlook, then you can follow how the market develops, where an idea becomes relevant, how a trade is managed and what happens afterwards when it is reviewed. It gives the trading more continuity without turning it into something you have to sit and study. There’s already a documented history behind it: 17 FEB 2025 — 15 JUL 2026 82 trade ideas · +92.8% normalised · 64.3% win rate · 4.07 PF · 2.26R avg R:R · -5.2% max DD Normalised to a 1% risk model. If you’ve been following INPL, you already know what the private side is built around. INPL PRIVATE WAITLIST - https://www.launchpass.com/tradertedw/inpl

Been in Trader_Ted's channel for a while now, his trading record is publicly available for anyone to see. Highly vouch.

⚠️🚨US PPI: 🔴0% v 0.2% forecast US Core PPI: 🔴0.2% v 0.3% forecast labyrinthcapital.co.uk

TRADERS KEEP BETS ON 45% CHANCE OF SEPTEMBER FED RATE HIKE.

CPI y/y: 3.4℅v 3.4℅ forecast CPI m/m: 0.1℅ v 0.1℅ Core CPI m/m: 0.2℅ v 0.2℅ Core CPI y/y: 2.5℅ v 2.5℅ labyrinth capital.co.uk

USDJPY is creeping back up slowly. The JMoF x Treasury intervention last week caused an 880 pip displacement. Japan's MoF said last week that Japan plans to use the Fed's foreign and international repo facility in future. Meaning if we gravitate further towards the 161 level on USDJPY, you should expect direct central bank intervention again which obviously will translate onto DXYXXX pairs too. labyrinthcapital.co.uk

🔔Key Events This Week. ☄️Most volatile day: Wednesday: US CPI Over the last couple weeks / months, we have had substantial consensus from various FOMC voting members about their concerns and projections for future monetary policy. Warsh publicly declared that the 2% target is the Fed's long held objective and that the lack of forward guidance would serve as a precursor for the Fed to directly curb inflation with more "surprising" actions that align with the economic data over what the market thinks. Warsh stated in late July that: "If inflation stays high, rates could be part of the solution." Fed's Daly: "Resurgence of strong inflation pressures would require aggressive rate response" With this in mind, we can gather that the subsequent CPI data holds a huge onus over the direction of the EFFR and thus SOFR. Wednesday expectation is for inflation to remain sticky. labyrinthcapital.co.uk

NFP: Headline: 🔴 -23k v 85k forecast UR:🟢4.1℅ v 4.2℅ Avg Hourly Earnings: 🔴0.1℅ v 0.3℅ labyrinthcapital.co.uk

⚠️🇮🇷 US Treasury Secretary Bessent: We may have an Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz - CNBC interview

My personal prediction is that Japan ends up being the first major economy to implement some form of capital controls forcing its domestic institutions and investors to trim its foreign asset holdings (they hold the most foreign assets behind China) and purchase domestic Yen denominated assets. The outcome of this is a total reformation of capital flows between high yielding assets (mainly US) and Japan which cause a temporary airpocket in US equities. Alternatively, BOJ and Fed can both raise rates this cycle and prevent a carry trade unwind using inflation rising as justification. The consequence of this is a synchronised global liquidity contraction leading to a broad based bear market and really only kicks the can down the road for the time being. Ultimately, the Yen interventions have proven to be ineffective in tacking the problems in Japan; but who is really surprised when the country has +250% debt/gdp and its Central Bank owns over 50% of its outstanding government debt. labyrinthcapital.co.uk

⚠️🚨🇯🇵 JAPAN SITUATION EXPLAINED & IMPLICATIONS: On Friday, as reported en masse, The US Treasury intervened in the Yen FX market selling Euros to buy Yen. They do this by liaising with the NY Fed who draw down their held Euro reserves to fund the purchase. This is the first intervention by the US in nearly 30 years. Prior to Friday, Japan fired its biggest currency intervention in its history buying 8.45T Yen ($52bn) in a single day. The BOJ conducts this by dumping dollars (treasuries) and buying Yen. Hence USDJPY swing has been constant around 160 level. BOJ also held its base rate at 1%, no hike. A freefall in the Yen forces Japan, the largest foreign holder and buyer of US Treasuries to sell those US bonds to fund its currency defense. This is the primary objective of such a move. The secondary major potential consequence, is the infamous carry trade. For decades, investors and hedge funds borrowed Yen at close to 0% and arbitraged the trade to fuel capital investment into US markets. As inflation has risen in Japan and become essentially entrenched, rate expectations have naturally increased and bond term premia has also risen. This threatens the "unwinding" of the carry trade because the arbitrage multiplier shrinks and will eventually lead to balance sheet contagion for investors & hedge funds who get margin squeezed. This is a manual, external, unnatural threat for this week coming if you are trading Yen, Euro and Dollar. For investor implications, there is also the added risk for US equities as domestic flight for Japan likely leaves US markets. 160 USDJPY 185 EURJPY Should be key levels on charts for central bank intervention. labyrinthcapital.co.uk

US Treasury told a number of banks via the New York Fed that banks should stand by for 'future actions' - Source Familiar With The Matter

🚨🚨BREAKING: US Treasury has informed banks that it may intervene in the yen market on Friday - Source Familiar With The Matter. labyrinthcapital.co.uk

TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD TOPS 5.20% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2007. Fantastic job Kevin Warsh.

Warsh: "The market is finally responding to the data, not to what the Fed says." 30yr: Biggest 1d yield move in 12mths.

Market futures for September now: Maintain 3.75% : 46% from 24% 🔺 Hike to 4.00% : 53% from 60% 🔻 Hike to 4.25% : 0.9% from 22% 🔻 labyrinthcapital.co.uk

Warsh: In crisis mode forward guidance is prudent. In more benign situations we must pull back.

Warsh: We are not spoon feeding markets. The market gives us their own judgement instead of echoing what we say back to us.