degen trading

did you fomo the highs? are you going to panic sell the lows? (again?)

https://x.ai/bot

Pre Market Thoughts - 18 Aug 26 Yields are higher across the curve with new highs in the 30Y at 5.3%. Across the index, we see Consumer staples suffering while Energy is up (See sector performance breakdown on terminal.gambit.zone under RADAR tab > SECTORS). Factor wise momentum and high beta has led a very strong rebound with a 7-9% MTD bounce (RADAR tab > ROTATION) In overnight US markets we had strong performance led by the memory sector while neoclouds were generally held down. We also saw a resumption of the semis up, hyperscalers down performance. The most consequential news was Anthropic releasing that its July ARR was at 65B+. For context at the end of May this was 47B, so a 40% increase in 2 months. Shortly after we see OAI announcing a 50% price cut for GPT 5.6 Sol on OpenRouter and Vercel. Semianalysis has rightfully noted that this is a "clever marketing ploy". Because "Openrouter and Vercel are disproportionately impactful because they are two of the main datasources everyone uses to estimate AI lab/model market share". I have been saying that Openrouter and Vercel ARE NOT indicative of the overall market at all. People use them because it is convenient. However, if you dropped your keys, do you only look for it near the lamp where there is light? Isnt it pretty stupid? Anyway, we can see that OAI sees the pressure and is gearing up all tricks to fight on perception. Meanwhile, users of Claude would realise that Anthropic is severely short on compute, with tasks not being completed or being swapped to a worse model mid way. The picks and shovels in this case is compute. Neoclouds. NEOCLOUD SUMMER. Asia markets followed the weakness in US indices with $NKY dropping 2.5% and $KOSPI dropping 1.55%. The more discerning reader would be surprised by the KOSPI number, however this is an optical illusion because the Korean markets were closed yesterday and hence the actual drop would have been somewhat closer to 4.5%. Memory took a hit with 285A giving back some gains and Hynix hovering at the 1.6m KRW support. The HK model companies were also not spared with $2513 down 12% and $100 down 5%. Is there real cause for worry? My opinion is no. Anthropic's growth has been phenomenal. While some people are disappointed and think the number should be 70B or 75B or 80B. At the end of the day, its all splitting hairs. Exponential growth will slow, the crux is at what ending ARR does Anthropic land at by the end of next year. Also new tool - Grok Bot has dropped - Gavin Baker thinks this is another "Claude Code" moment for AI. I will try it out and let you know. On the terminal now you can track how the money flows from the Hyperscaler Capex (DATA tab > SUPPLY CHAIN), you can also see it visualised where the bottlenecks lay and what part of the process is currently strained. Good luck!

https://x.com/degentradingLSD/status/2089608934273532089

if $MU closes above 1100 tonight, i will book a flight somewhere ^_^

It is crazy to see that $SNDK did a 80% move from 2 weeks ago. Again - were you too shaken? Did you buy and then sold for a paltry profiterinos? Did you listen to those twitter larps?

hjamming

why? because MU has 0dtes SNDK doesnt (im just gamblerinos)

swapped out some sandick for mu

took the early dip in neos to bid some crwv optionality

Pre Market Thoughts - 17 Aug 26 Korean markets are closed today for Liberation day. Meanwhile $NKY is up about 0.75%. Memory has performed strongly today with $285A up 15%. It is at 62k JPY right now. After the buyback was announced, $285A dropped to 41k JPY lows. I made the call to get in on that retracement. It is almost 50% up. The best time to buy is exactly when it is scary. Consequently, the worst time to buy is when it feels so safe. As a retail investor, you have no business being short. The R/R of a long is infinitely higher than the R/R of a short. If you timed the $285A short to the picotop, congrats, you made less than 50%. Less than how much someone buy it at 41K JPY would have made. Even L/S funds have huge attrition in their managers blowing up the books on a daily basis. Are you smarter than them? More disciplined than them? No? Then sit tight and be a good retail investor. Finance is a good mistress as long as you stick to your lane. In pre market trading, $SNDK has continued its ascent up, it is up about 6% for the day. On friday, i mentioned in the chat that 21 Aug 1800/2000 C/S were good value at a 10x payout. For the most conservative ones, it is good idea to take out 1/3 of the position and free roll the rest. In a separate note today, i identified the most critical flow that will make this the most hated rally ever. Structured products sold by Asian PBs have reached about 300B in notional. This represents massive hedging flows into the market and is responsible for the collapse in IVs (below historical realised vols). The hedging mechanics, you can read it up in the article. But suffice to say, dealers need to chase on rallies. Hedge funds are also at the lowest gross and net exposures over the last 2 years from GS prime data. This is the spot where i think funds are currently surprised by the velocity of the rally. Some may have turned short. Soon, they will capitulate and buy higher. In neoclouds, $NBIS continues leading. Short interest in this name has NOT dropped. It is at 28%, i expect this rally to continue off just mechanical stop outs. Fundamentally, neoclouds are getting better understood and people are waking up to the compute shortage. Repeat after me NEOCLOUD SUMMER. Again, on terminal.gambit.zone - there is compute data, memory data. If you were looking at these data, you would have came to the same conclusions as me. Information is key. All of this is provided for free now. If you found my market color helpful - drop me a follow. Let me know in the comments what other stuff you would like me to discuss. Or what data you would like to see on the terminal! Good luck!

https://x.com/degentradingLSD/status/2089257777395048637

https://degentradingdaily.substack.com/p/volatility-releveraging

lmao

._.

wow r my C/S gonna go ITM alr

How we doing on this fine wkend

$NVDA also seems to be pinning 225

ok 1 last gamblerurur

SPX