denome announcements

Iran has completely ruled out any future negotiations with the Trump administration, declaring it will wait out Donald Trump's term until January 20, 2029, per Iranian outlets and Ghalibaf advisor's post. This is Iran pushing its leverage. They reiterated the same demands from before, which in short is "give us our money and leave these lands". As the Hormuz remains restricted, Israel's allies won't be getting the Hormuz goods. This will undoubtedly lead to money printing and inflation. The problem there is, bond market yields are already too high. On the exact same day oil had a break out from the short-term line to the upside. Let's see if oil can break the white higher-term trendline or should probably say the "manipulation" trendline.

Trump rants about Iran and fakely claims that USA already completely controls the Strait. Trump understands they have much less leverage over Iran than Iran has over the USA and he is pissed that Iran continues to show off their dominance. The negotiations are going on but they aren't progressing. I believe Trump wants out, but he isn't willing to actually follow-through the fake promises that he continues to make to Iran. Iran on the other hand is not interested in fulfilling their parts of the fake deals until USA moves first. Trump cannot easily give in to the Iranian demands either because any consolidation of Iranian control gives them more regional power. Plus, what's to stop from Iran demanding more after they've consolidated previous gains. But if Trump can sell the idea that Iran is un-negotiable he can then excuse a bigger escalation than what we've seen so far. That's what the Isrealis want and that to me seems to be the ultimate destination.

The usual taco. Announce scheduled escalation. Cancel scheduled escalation. Promise Iran everything privately and nothing publicly. Next up: paper oil dumps. Iran drives up its leverage. Trump can't stop Iran. USA prepares another lash out. They go back to fighting and oil goes back up again. Then Iran wins again.

This is the end game. Iran and USA are locked in a cycle of conflict. Iran cannot accept any deal other than USA leaving the region, because they are winning militarily. USA has broken every previous deal so the only deal Iran can believe is AFTER USA packs its bags and leaves. USA on the other hand cannot accept that, because 50% of world's oil reserves are in the Middle East. If USA accepts surrender, then IRAN will not only become the regional superpower, it will become de facto oil superpower. Bye bye petro-Dollar. Bye bye current economic world order. Good bye world police. Not a chance in hell that USA just accepts that. If USA goes for any meaningful de-escalation that allows Iran to consolidate wins and gain influence in the region. Without a meaningful comeback strategy that would be essentially the same as accepting surrender. So a longer pause is also out of the question. The only way out is through. The conflict must burn itself out. My prediction in all of this is that Iran will win. Iran has vastly better regional military capabilities, more economic leverage, more motivation and the patience to see this through. The only lead USA has is economic superiority. But that economic superiority does not translate to military power so the winner is clear. But USA will have to try. This is the same message I said since 2 weeks before the war broke out.

Buckle up: - 2 US servicemen got killed. - Hegseth promised revenge. - Khamenei came and said that US president signature is utterly worthless and devoid of credibility. Could be a circuit breaker Monday where they will halt trading. Unless of course they find another "one minute before market open Axios article".

Trump: MOU is over.

INTC now doing it

"Never sell your Bitcoin"

I shorted Intel corp $INTC here. The pattern looks similar what Bitcoin did at $120k. All kinds of bearish divergences and if it repeats the Wyckoff pattern, then ATH is already in.

New Axios article about the negotiations held in Doha: "“We reached an understanding that we will maintain quiet over the coming week, so that we can advance all components of the Memorandum of Understanding in a productive atmosphere, without missiles flying in the air,” a senior American official told me." "This means new confrontations could resume immediately after the American Independence Day celebrations on July 4." This week USA has made at least three of those 3+3 escort operations through Omani side basically without any Iranian retaliation, while there is ongoing traffic through Omani side as I make this post. Feels like USA has made some big promises to Iran to keep things calm this week. If next week USA doesn't fill their promises, then missiles talk again. But if USA does, then this looks like good de-escalation.

Brent Crude exports are 0 for a full month for the first time ever. Probably nothing. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/no-brent-crude-oil-cargoes-set-load-august-first-global-price-benchmark-2026-06-30/

I shorted Intel corp $INTC here. The pattern looks similar what Bitcoin did at $120k. All kinds of bearish divergences and if it repeats the Wyckoff pattern, then ATH is already in.

Mr. Civilisation Ender is back. Will be funny if they can de-escalate one minute before pre-market open again.

Drones, damage, anti-air, ceasefire violation.

Looks like Europeans on Binance will be able to "sell only" starting July 1st due to Binance withdrawing its MiCA application from Greece and moving it to another country. If the report is right, Binance looks to secure the MiCA "in the coming months." Probably not great for crypto upward price action. https://x.com/VettedLabs/status/2070420941109092806

I posted a new video on YT with update on my oil thesis. But I will not link videos here anymore. The reason for me not linking videos here is simple: A content strategist working for YouTube recently made a video saying that their algorithm likes when people click to your videos through YouTube suggestions, and advised people not to advertise their videos outside YouTube. Stupid algo if you ask me but I will honor it.

Joint statement from peace mediators, Pakistan and Qatar. Good news they have found a solution to the 12th clause in the MOU.

We are at this point again.

Damnit. I could not stop myself. I saw this theory by Robert Pape on the next 30-60 days and I just had to post it out there. In short, Iran will gain more leverage as negotiations drag on so Iran will likely demand more. In doing so, they may have to demonstrate another closing of the Strait to get it. Risky assets are doing well now but this geopolitical risk is still real. https://youtu.be/96BfKwWL1yY