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🚨 THERE'S NO STOPPING JAPAN'S ECONOMIC CRISIS Japan's 2-year bond yield just hit 1.692%, its highest level in 31 years. It was negative in early 2024. That's a rise of nearly 170 basis points from below zero in just two years. The 5-year is at 2.173%, also a 31-year high, and the 10-year is at 2.929%, a 30-year high. The entire curve is repricing at once, not just the short end. Japan already carries debt worth around 205% of GDP, while Q2 GDP growth came in at just 1.1% annualized versus 2.0% expected. Rising debt, weakening growth, a falling currency and higher borrowing costs are all hitting Japan at the same time. It is the worst combination a country can face.

3 MAJOR NEWS EVENTS COULD MOVE GLOBAL MARKETS THIS WEEK 🇺🇸Monday, US Foreign Portfolio Flows: Heavy foreign Treasury buying supports bond prices, pushes yields lower and can help stocks. 🇺🇸Wednesday, FOMC Minutes: More support for holding or cutting rates could lower yields while supporting stocks, and crypto. 🇯🇵Thursday, Japan CPI: Cooler inflation reduces the urgency to hike.

🚨 CHINESE 5 YEAR BOND YIELD JUST CRASHED 7% IN ONE DAY. This is a move you rarely see in government bonds. The yield fell to around 1.339%. It was 2.52% at the start of 2024. Money is piling into government bonds because there is nowhere else to put it. Property is still broken and demand is weak. Its stock market is still down 36% from the 2007 peak. Investors are locking in 1.339% for five years because they expect things to get worse, not better.

On Thursday, the CFTC's new Innovation Advisory Committee holds its first meeting, covering crypto regulation, AI in finance and prediction markets. Both are happening because senate could not deliver the CLARITY Act. It has been stuck in the Senate for 13 months, and the September 15 vote only decides whether the Senate will debate it or not.

🚨 THE SEC, THE CFTC, AND THE WHITE HOUSE ARE ALL HOLDING MAJOR MEETINGS ON CRYPTO THIS WEEK. On Wednesday, the White House meets crypto leaders along with the chairs of the SEC and CFTC. The last one was in February, focused on stablecoin rewards, and ended without an agreement.

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🚨JUST IN: Nvidia retreats from its $250 BILLION guarantee for OpenAI's giant data center. The chipmaker cut the backstop to under $120 BILLION, covering only HALF of the 10 gigawatt Ohio project after investors balked at the risk.

🚨JUST IN: PayPal rejects a $53 BILLION buyout offer from Stripe, and is negotiating its sale at a higher price. The board believes the $60.50 per share bid ignores PayPal's 179% cash flow surge, and is holding out for around $70 a share. A deal could reportedly be signed within weeks.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 President Trump is set to meet with crypto leaders at the White House on August 19.

BREAKING: Jane Street suffered a massive $15 BILLION loss in July as the AI selloff severely impacted its exposure to Situational Awareness and other tech stocks. It was the firm’s first negative month since 2016. Revenue fell -25% from its peak at the end of June. Despite the loss, Jane Street has generated more than $40B in trading revenue so far this year, already surpassing the $39.6B it generated in 2025. The firm says it is now pulling back on risk-taking in some strategies after the sharp drawdown.

BREAKING: Anthropic’s Q2 revenue surged more than 14x YoY to over $11.5B, up from $787M a year ago. Annualized revenue run rate had already crossed $47B in May, while adjusted operating income turned positive in Q2.

America is collecting more money but still falling further behind. Through July, federal receipts rose 3% to $4.49T, but spending climbed even faster to $6.28T. That pushed the fiscal-year deficit to nearly $1.8T, up 10% from the same period last year. One of the biggest pressures is interest on the national debt. Net interest costs have already reached $931B this fiscal year, putting them behind only Social Security and Medicare among major federal expenses. July alone added another $432B to the deficit, the largest monthly shortfall in more than five years. Higher revenue simply hasn’t kept pace with Washington’s growing bills.

🇺🇸TARIFF REFUNDS ARE POURING BILLIONS INTO AMERICA’S BIGGEST COMPANIES More than 40 S&P 500 companies reported $9.6B in tariff refunds, including $2.1B already received in cash. - Apple: $2.2B - Nike: $986M - FedEx: $800M - Amazon: $640M - GM: $500M Companies are getting their tariff money back, but the higher prices passed on to consumers haven’t come down. FedEx, Costco and Amazon say they’ll return tariff refunds to customers.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 The White House will meet with crypto leaders on August 19 to discuss the Clarity Act.

Over ¥20,600,000,000,000 ($131B) has been added to Japanese stocks as the NIKKEI surged +1.75%.

US banks are sitting on $325 BILLION in unrealized losses. It’s one of the biggest aftershocks of the wildest rate cycle in 40 years. Banks loaded up on Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities when rates were near zero. The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes crushed bond prices, leaving banks with hundreds of billions in unrealized losses. While the rate-hiking cycle has ended, the balance-sheet fallout is far from resolved.