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Russian wheat exports rose to a record 48 million tonnes. In the 2025/26 agricultural year, Russia exported approximately 48 million tonnes of wheat, 13.7% more than the previous year (42.2 million tonnes). Top buyers: — Egypt: 9.7 million tonnes (previously 8.8 million tonnes). — Turkey: 7.4 million tonnes (almost doubled purchases from 3.2 million tonnes). — Sudan: 2.3 million tonnes (previously 0.98 million tonnes). — Saudi Arabia: 2 million tonnes (previously 1.5 million tonnes). — Kenya: 1.9 million tonnes (previously 1.5 million tonnes). This growth was achieved despite increased competition from the EU, US, Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Ukraine. The key factor is the attractive price: from July 1 to 7, Russian wheat fell by only $1 per ton, while American wheat rose by $16 per ton. Global wheat prices have begun to recover amid lower planting area estimates in the US and Canada, abnormal heat in France, and large tenders in Saudi Arabia. Russia remains the world's leading wheat exporter.

Corn exports to China increased In May of this year, Russia increased its corn exports to China almost sixfold compared to April, reaching $13.9 million, while total shipments from January to May doubled year-on-year.

Russia has increased its mineral fertilizer exports by almost 7% since the beginning of the year. Russian mineral fertilizer exports from January to June 2026 increased by 7% compared to the same period last year, reaching $5.5 billion, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Brazil remains the largest buyer, while exports to China increased almost 1.5-fold, and to India, by more than 10%. Exports of crop protection products also increased by 7% (to $147 million). Overall, exports of domestic agricultural technologies (including seeds, breeding animals, veterinary drugs, and bio-products) amounted to $5.9 billion, 6% higher than last year. Demand for Russian agricultural technologies is growing not only in traditional markets but also in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

The new US license to sell oil from Russia is valid until April 12 and does not apply to transactions related to Iran, the US Treasury Department announced.

Many countries are running short of fertilizer before the sowing season begins. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked a significant portion of the world's fertilizer supplies: approximately 40% of nitrogen fertilizers (approximately 21-22 million tons per year), 31% of urea, 18% of ammonia, and 46% of sulfur pass through it. Urea prices have already jumped 25-35% to $550-600 per ton. India, Brazil, the EU, the US, and other major importers are under pressure, while Qatar and the UAE have virtually no alternative routes. Russia, the world's largest supplier, could increase exports, but it is constrained by domestic fertilizer quotas (to ensure food security), port congestion, and sanctions risks. According to the Federal Antimonopoly Service, domestic prices in Russia remain stable; indexation has not been conducted and is not being discussed. According to forecasts, Russian fertilizer exports could grow to 46 million tons in 2026, up from 45 million in 2025, but it will not be possible to completely replace the lost volumes from the Gulf in the short term.

Global demand for critical minerals will quadruple by 2040 Demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other strategic minerals will triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2040, according to the UN Deputy Secretary-General. Trade in such minerals reached $2.5 trillion in 2023, exceeding 10% of all global trade. According to forecasts from the International Energy Agency, by 2040, demand for lithium will increase fivefold, for graphite and nickel, by double, for cobalt and rare earth metals, by 50-60%, and for copper, by 30%. The sharp increase in consumption is linked to the energy transition and the development of green technologies, the production of which requires these resources. Rising demand is already creating new economic and political challenges, including supply security and supply chain resilience.

Crystalline hydroxylamine sulfate produced by Grodnoazot. Prices are based on market prices and shipping costs. FOB Novorossiysk.

🇷🇺👨‍💻🌎🛳Goldman Sachs: Brent oil prices expected to collapse to $56 in 2026 Goldman Sachs experts reported on Monday that they expect oil prices to continue to fall and reach their minimum next year. The main reason for this is the surge in oil production, which will create a large surplus in the market by that time – approximately 2 million barrels per day. Invetbank provided specific figures for grades: in 2026, Brent will average $56 per barrel, while WTI will average $52. This is significantly lower than current market forecasts of $63 and $60. Goldman Sachs experts explain the origins of this "supply wave" in 2025–2026. It all stems from large projects that were launched before the pandemic. Due to COVID-19, they had to be postponed, and now they have all restarted simultaneously. Added to this is the OPEC cartel's decision to temporarily cut its production. Meanwhile, other countries are not standing still. The OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia and other member countries, has been gradually increasing oil production since April of this year. Non-OPEC+ oil producers—such as the US, Brazil, and others—are also increasing production. All this increases the risk of an oil surplus and puts pressure on prices. The IEA is even threatening an even larger surplus in 2026—up to 4.09 million bpd. However, the bank expects the situation to improve beyond that. Low prices in 2025–2026 will hit production outside OPEC countries, and due to low investment in the industry over the past 15 years, there are almost no new large projects. Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects prices to begin to recover around 2027, with Brent and WTI crude prices rising to $80 and $76, respectively, by the end of 2028. Goldman Sachs also noted other possible scenarios. If non-OPEC production is more robust than expected in 2026/2027, or the global economy enters a recession, Brent could fall to $40. On the other hand, if supplies from Russia decline more than planned, the price could rise to over $70 per barrel.

🇷🇺👨‍💻🛳🇮🇷 🇻🇪Three sanctioned countries – Russia, Iran, and Venezuela – continue to accumulate oil in floating storage facilities. The main buyers of their oil, China and several Asian countries, have reduced purchases from sanctioned countries, Oilprice describes the situation. "OilX, a division of Energy Aspects, calculated that the volume of oil in floating storage facilities in Asia rose to 70 million barrels by the end of October from approximately 50 million barrels in the middle of the month, an increase of 20 million barrels in 14 days. Vortexa estimates that the total volume of Iranian oil at sea, both in storage and in transit, is 161 million barrels, which is 22.5 million barrels more than at the end of September. The analytics company also estimated the volume of Venezuelan oil stored at sea at 72.3 million barrels, approximately 6.6 million barrels more than at the end of September. These sanctioned oil stockpiles could pose a price challenge, as they represent a significant portion of global supply. If buyers are found for them, this would exacerbate the supply situation, which most analysts consider excessive.

Iran and Russia have officially abandoned the use of the US dollar in bilateral trade, switching to their national currencies – the ruble and the rial.

Speaking at the APEC summit, Xi Jinping announced that China has already granted zero tariffs on 100% of goods from least developed countries with which it has established diplomatic relations. China now plans to sign an economic partnership agreement and impose zero tariffs on all goods from African countries.

The agreement on visa-free travel for citizens between Russia and Jordan will enter into force on December 13, 2025.

Highlights from the IEA's October report Demand: - In 2025, global demand for oil and liquid hydrocarbons will grow by 710,000 barrels per day, to 103.84 million barrels per day; in 2026, by 699,000 barrels per day, to 104.54 million barrels per day; - Forecasts have been adjusted slightly; - In Q3 In 2025, the indicator increased by 750,000 barrels per day amid a recovery in demand for petrochemical feedstocks. - This positive trend will not be long-term; oil consumption will remain low for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 (demand is currently declining seasonally, but for some reason, the entire 2026 will also be poor). - Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, increased vehicle efficiency, and the electrification of transport are leading to a sharp slowdown in oil consumption growth (this is the IEA's view). Supply: - global oil and liquid hydrocarbons supply will increase by 3 million bpd in 2025, to 106.1 million bpd, and by 2.4 million bpd in 2026, to 108.5 million bpd - forecasts have been increased by 330,000 bpd in 2025 and by 290,000 bpd in 2026 - non-OPEC+ countries will increase by 1.6 million bpd in 2025 and by 1.2 million bpd in 2026 - the main drivers of supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries will be the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina (and the EIA expects US oil production to decline in 2026, albeit slightly - by 20,000 barrels per day (up to 13.51 million barrels per day). Balance: - weak demand and rapidly growing supply should create a significant surplus in the oil market – 2.26 million barrels per day in 2025 and 3.96 million barrels per day in 2026. - the IEA attributes the lack of a real surplus to the buildup of inventories, primarily from oil in China and LPG in the US (the market would notice a 2 million barrels per day surplus; during the pandemic, prices would have fallen from 1 million barrels per day). The estimates of the expected surplus are so significant that the IEA is acknowledging uncertainties that could impact its forecasts. These include almost all of them: sanctions against Russia and Iran, EU restrictions on imports of petroleum products from Russian feedstock, geopolitical issues, attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and a reduction in Russian middle distillate exports. The IEA cautiously admits that the market situation could be more tense than its current forecast suggests.

🇪🇺🇷🇺 EU purchased Russian energy resources for almost €1 billion in August. The five largest countries importing oil and gas from Russia — Hungary, Slovakia, France, the Netherlands and Belgium — purchased Russian energy resources for almost €1 billion in August, citing CREA data.

🇺🇸 How US tariffs will affect prices Major product groups are expected to see sustained price increases due to higher duties. Among the hardest hit categories are commodities such as metals, which are expected to rise by 41%.

🇪🇺 Russia sold €332 million worth of fertilizers to the EU, a record for two years The share of Russian fertilizers on the European market reached 47% in June. In May, it was 24.5%. In monetary terms, Russian fertilizers were sold to the EU in June for €331.7 million.

China is increasing its overall crude oil imports, reducing its purchases from Russia. In the first half of 2025, Beijing bought 11% less Russian oil in physical terms year-on-year, and its cost decreased by 24% (-$8.0 billion). This happened against the backdrop of growing discounts on Russian oil compared to international benchmarks. The reduction in Russian supplies was not caused by a decrease in demand in China - purchases from other suppliers in physical terms increased by 4.5%. As a result of the change in trade flows, Russia's share of oil imports to China fell to 17.5% - the lowest figure in two years. Coal exports from Russia to China decreased by 4%, LNG supplies fell by 18%, and petroleum products - by 27%. China does not publish data on pipeline gas imports since the beginning of 2022, but data on the value of imports suggests that the volume of supplies via Power of Siberia has increased by 20% year-on-year.

Malaysia to Increase Gas-Fired Generation Amid Rapid Growth of Data Center Sector According to international consulting company Bain & Co and investment fund Temasek, by 2027, data centers will consume up to 21% of the country's total electricity (in 2022 - 7%). 📊 Hyperscale data centers are the driver of demand Microsoft, Google, Nvidia and other hyperscale operators are already building campuses in Johor and Kuala Lumpur. 🔋 +50% gas generation by 2030 Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) (Malaysian energy company) plans to add 6-8 GW of gas capacity to provide power supply to new data centers. This is a strategic step to cover peak loads and stabilize the power grid. This expansion of gas generation will be the largest in two decades! ❗️ This opens up new opportunities for suppliers: - New tenders for power equipment, cooling systems and energy-efficient solutions. - Demand for peak load management technologies. - Localization and service presence in the region will become an important factor in competitiveness.