FXSMART

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/nCSZbHwQ-XAUUSD-1H-Range-Strategy-with-Breakout-and-Pullback/

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US30/z0TTWJYh-US30-4H-Bullish-Waiting-for-Pullback-to-Fibonacci-Demand-Zones/

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/hlJS08TA-EURUSD-Bearish-Outlook-Waiting-for-the-Pullback-Before-Selling/

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/hlJS08TA-EURUSD-Bearish-Outlook-Waiting-for-the-Pullback-Before-Selling/

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/MPPEO4XW-EURUSD-Daily-Bearish-Channel-Intact-Waiting-for-Pullback-to/

#dxy The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 99.50. Market participants welcomed the news of a peace agreement between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic, which will end the three-month war and allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the agreement will be signed on Friday in Switzerland, although the details of the deal have not yet been disclosed. The positive news backdrop put pressure on oil prices and eased concerns regarding inflation and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike in the U.S. this year now stands at 50%, compared to over 75% a week ago. Traders are focusing this week on the Fed meeting, which will be the first for the regulator’s new chair, Kevin Warsh. If he does not confirm the “central bank’s” readiness to tighten monetary policy this year, pressure on the dollar could intensify.

#usdjpy The USD/JPY pair is trading at 160.15. The U.S. dollar came under pressure following statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a breakthrough in negotiations between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic, which could lead to the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump noted that an agreement could be reached as early as this weekend. Representatives from Tehran confirmed receiving new proposals, which supports hopes for an end to the conflict. Meanwhile, the pair is trading at levels that have previously triggered interventions. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that the regulator is ready to act against excessive yen weakness. However, these warnings are not providing significant support to the Japanese currency. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda was hospitalized this week and is likely to miss next week’s monetary policy meeting, but this does not change expectations that the bank will raise rates to 1%, the highest level in roughly 30 years. Given this, the initiative in the market may shift to sellers of the USD/JPY pair.

#brent Brent crude is trading at $94.70 per barrel. Prices came under pressure following reports that Tehran had agreed to halt attacks on Israeli territory, heeding U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for both countries to cease hostilities against one another. In addition, the U.S. president expressed confidence today that Middle East negotiations are in the “final stages” and that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen “in two or three days” if an agreement is reached with Tehran. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to allow for the resumption of hydrocarbon exports and a significant drop in oil prices. Later today, the American Petroleum Institute will release its report on U.S. oil inventories. If inventories decline again, the current corrective trend in Brent prices may slow down.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/7dEaJQXi-XAUUSD-1H-Range-Between-Resistance-and-Support-Breakout-Watch/

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/7dEaJQXi-XAUUSD-1H-Range-Between-Resistance-and-Support-Breakout-Watch/

🥈🥇 Gold and Silver on the Verge of a Volatility Breakout; All Eyes on U.S. Jobs Data The precious metals market, after a tense start to the year, has entered a consolidation phase over the past three sessions. Traders are clearly waiting for a decisive catalyst. This week, gold has been fluctuating within a roughly $100 range, while silver has remained confined to a band of nearly $5. Compared to the sharp rallies and deep pullbacks seen since late January, this price behavior signals a temporary cooling in momentum. However, this calm may prove short-lived. Market participants are now focused squarely on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report—widely viewed as today’s primary risk event. The release has the potential to trigger a fresh wave of volatility across financial markets, including precious metals. From a technical standpoint, gold price action reflects tightening compression within a key range. The metal is currently trading around its hourly moving averages and the $5,100 level, which is acting as immediate resistance. Meanwhile, the 100- and 200-hour moving averages are providing dynamic support. A decisive break on either side of this structure is likely to define the next directional move. A strong breakout above $5,100 would reinforce the bullish recovery scenario and could open the door for a renewed push toward January’s highs. Conversely, a breakdown below the moving average support zone may trigger stop-loss selling, intensify downside pressure, and tilt the short-term outlook bearish—raising the probability of a deeper corrective phase. In summary, the market is in wait-and-see mode. The U.S. employment report could serve as the catalyst that determines the next major move in gold and silver. #xagusd #xauusd #Gold

📊📊📊📊📊 #dxy 💵 The dollar index (DXY) is trading at 97.10. 📰 Weak US labor market data released last week increased the likelihood that the Fed will be forced to continue easing national monetary policy to stimulate economic growth. 🏛 According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in March has risen from 10% to 17%, while markets estimate a nearly 70% probability of monetary easing in June — at the first meeting after the end of Chairman Jerome Powell's term. Earlier, the Fed leadership stated that decisions on rates are not made in advance and depend entirely on macroeconomic statistics. 📊 This week, traders will be closely watching key economic data from the US, including the delayed non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for January, US retail sales, and the consumer price index (CPI). A deterioration in the labor market and a decline in inflation could increase pressure on the dollar.

📊📊📊📊📊 #xagusd 🥈 The XAG/USD pair is trading at $78 per ounce. 📰 Silver came under pressure from hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 🏛 Fed Governing Board member Lisa Cook said she would not support another rate cut without clearer evidence that inflation is falling. According to her, the still high consumer price index poses a greater problem for the economy than the weak labor market. Market participants are also assessing the implications of Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed chairman, citing his less aggressive approach to rate cuts. All this has led to an upward trend in US bond yields, which has increased the opportunity cost of holding metal, which does not generate interest income. 💵 Another factor contributing to the decline in the price of silver was the strengthening of the dollar, given that the value of precious metals is denominated in US currency.

📊📊📊📊📊 #xauusd 🥇 The XAU/USD pair is trading at $5050 per ounce. ⚠️ Gold is supported by rising tensions in the Middle East following the attack on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. In such conditions, market participants are betting on defensive assets, which increases the attractiveness of precious metals. 📊 Today, traders are focusing on ADP employment change data and the US ISM services business activity index for January. These reports are important because they may influence market expectations regarding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to CME FedWatch, the Fed may cut interest rates twice this year (in June and September), but if economic conditions in the US deteriorate, the US regulator will have to resume easing policy earlier than expected. In such a scenario, the dollar will come under even greater pressure, which will support the growth of gold and silver.

🔔 Federal Reserve Rate Cut – Macro Market Outlook The U.S. Federal Reserve has just cut interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75%. This decision sends a clear signal to global markets: the peak of restrictive monetary policy is likely behind us, and the focus is gradually shifting toward economic support and liquidity stabilization. 🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) A rate-cut environment is structurally bullish for gold. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, while declining real yields and medium-term USD weakness support capital inflows into gold. Short-term pullbacks should be viewed as healthy corrections within a broader bullish structure, not trend reversals. ➡️ Outlook: Bullish short- to medium-term 🟠 Cryptocurrency Market Rate cuts typically improve liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite. Bitcoin is expected to lead, followed by selective strength in major altcoins. Volatility will remain elevated, but market structure now leans more toward accumulation rather than distribution. ➡️ Outlook: Positive bias with high volatility 🔵 Equities (Stock Market) Equity markets usually welcome rate cuts, particularly growth and technology stocks. In the short term, a relief rally is likely. Medium-term sustainability will depend on whether this move is seen as a growth-supportive pivot or a response to deeper economic weakness. ➡️ Short-term: Positive reaction ➡️ Medium-term: Data-dependent 📌 Macro Summary The rate cut from 4.00% to 3.75% indicates that liquidity conditions are gradually improving. Smart money is shifting back toward calculated positioning rather than aggressive speculation. ✅ Gold: Strong hedge with bullish structure ✅ Crypto: High risk, high opportunity ✅ Stocks: Constructive, but data-driven #FederalReserve #RateCut #MacroAnalysis #Gold #XAUUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #StockMarket #MonetaryPolicy #Liquidity #SmartMoney #MarketOutlook

📊📊📊📊📊 #nzdusd 🇳🇿🇺🇸 The NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.5780. 📊 The New Zealand currency is supported by unexpectedly strong data on China's trade balance, which exceeded a surplus of $1 trillion in November for the first time in history. This indicator is mainly due to a 5.9% increase in exports on an annualized basis, compared to 1.1% growth in October. The report shows that the Chinese economy, which is New Zealand's key trading partner, is proving resilient to US trade tariffs. 🏛 In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25 basis points in November, but the bank's management noted that the current easing cycle is likely over. In contrast to the actions of the Fed, this creates additional conditions for the strengthening of the New Zealand currency. 📈 Given the above, the NZD/USD pair retains its growth potential.

#audusd 🇳🇿🇺🇸 The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.6550. 🏛 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) does not intend to rush into easing monetary policy, fearing increased inflation risks. Yesterday, inflation data from the Melbourne Institute provided support for the instrument. According to the results for November, the annual rate accelerated from 3.1% to 3.2%. According to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the RBA will keep interest rates at 3.60% throughout 2026. 📊 Traders will be closely watching Australia's third-quarter GDP data, which will be released tomorrow. According to forecasts, the Australian economy will grow by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, which will be the strongest indicator since the end of 2022. If expectations are met, the bullish rally of the Australian currency will continue. 📈 Given this, the AUD/USD pair retains its upside potential above 0.6600.

📊📊📊📊📊 #gbpusd 🇬🇧🇺🇸 The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3225. 🏛 The British currency is expected to remain under pressure as traders are increasingly confident that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at its last meeting of the year on December 18. The key rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%, given that the latest data from the UK confirmed the weakness of the labor market and a slowdown in inflation. 📊 In addition to the prospect of easing British monetary policy, pressure on the pound may come from a decline in government bond yields amid tax increases announced last week by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. In particular, in her budget report, Reeves announced that the government would raise taxes by £26 billion by 2029-2030 to fill the fiscal gap and cover the budget deficit. 📉

📊📊📊📊📊 #gbpusd 🇬🇧🇺🇸 The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3100. 🏛 The British currency came under pressure after the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4%. Five of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates at their current level, against the expected six. For the first time, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden voted against the majority and joined other officials - Swati Dingra, Dave Ramsden, and Alan Taylor - in supporting a 25 basis point rate cut. 📰 In its monetary policy statement, the Bank of England warned that “weak demand could put pressure on inflation in the medium term” and that further monetary policy easing would be necessary in December. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey also noted that the path of monetary policy remains towards lower rates. 📉 Given this, the sell-off of the GBP/USD pair may continue.

🇺🇸 Scenario (1–3 weeks ahead) Gold (XAU/USD): With the Fed cutting rates, yields on U.S. bonds are likely to decline, making gold more attractive. Safe-haven demand may also rise due to political pressure on the Fed and trade war concerns. Gold could trend upward in the short term. Stocks (S&P 500, Dow Jones, etc.): Lower borrowing costs improve corporate financing conditions and investor sentiment. Equities are likely to benefit, at least in the short term, leading to a bullish move in stocks. U.S. Dollar (DXY): A rate cut reduces the dollar’s relative yield advantage versus other currencies. This could trigger a short-term weakening of the USD,