Forex Analysis

Symbol: EUR/USD Action: BUY Entry Range: 1.1593 – 1.1605 Target 1: 1.1688 Target 2: 1.1735 Target 3: 1.1788 Stop Loss: 1.1530 Risk Disclosure

Symbol: GBP/USD Action: BUY Entry Range: 1.3120 – 1.3150 Target 1: 1.3240 Target 2: 1.3330 Target 3: 1.3400 Stop Loss: 1.3050 Risk Disclosure

Symbol: GBP/NZD Action: BUY Entry Range: 2.3180 – 2.3220 Target 1: 2.3400 Target 2: 2.3550 Target 3: 2.3700 Target 4: 2.3850 Stop Loss: 2.3050

Symbol: CAD/JPY Action: BUY Entry Range: 109.80 – 110.00 (Buy on Dip) Above 110.85 (Breakout Entry) Target 1: 111.20 Target 2: 111.80 Target 3: 112.50 Target 4: 113.00 Stop Loss: 109.20 (for Dip Entry) 110.20 (for Breakout Entry) Risk Disclosure

Symbol: USD/JPY Action: BUY Entry Range: 153.467 - 153.651 Target 1: 153.879 Target 2: 154.552 Target 3: 155.370 Target 4: 156.392 Stop Loss: 152.498 Risk Disclosure

A. Last Week in Review A1. Geopolitics and Global Moves • The US imposed new sanctions on Russia and halted trade talks with Canada. • The US increased financial support for Argentine President Milei. • Markets are watching the upcoming China-US talks, with former President Trump optimistic about an agreement. A2. US Economic Data • September inflation came in below expectations, raising the odds of a Fed rate cut this week. • Core and headline inflation remain about 1% above the Fed’s 2% target. • S&P Global PMIs exceeded forecasts, but the University of Michigan survey disappointed on activity and inflation expectations. A3. UK Economic Data • Inflation stayed at 3.8% in September, below expectations. • Cooling wage growth pushed yields lower, helping relieve pressure on the UK budget, which saw record borrowing since the pandemic. A4. China • Q3 GDP slowed to 4.8% annually, with a 5.2% rate for the first nine months, on track for the 5% target. • The government reaffirmed structural reforms to boost domestic demand and technological resilience. A5. Markets • Equities rose, yields remained stable. • Gold’s nine-week winning streak ended due to profit-taking. • Oil gained, with Brent and WTI above $60 after stronger US sanctions on Russia. • US support helped stabilize Argentine bonds but had limited impact on the currency. B. The Week Ahead B1. Geopolitics • Markets will watch the Trump-Xi meeting, Argentine elections, and other global events. B2. Central Banks • The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 bps amid a weakening labor market, despite inflation running above target. • ECB, Bank of Japan, and central banks in Chile and Colombia are expected to hold rates. • Powell’s press conference will be closely watched for economic outlook and policy guidance. B3. US Economic Data • Government shutdown may delay Q3 GDP, PCE inflation, and personal income/spending reports. • Dallas and Richmond Fed manufacturing reports will still be released. B4. Bond Market • Heavy issuance expected: $20B in US investment-grade bonds, plus similar non-investment-grade issuance. Europe also expects high bond supply. B5. Corporate Earnings • Key focus on tech and energy companies’ quarterly results. Risk Disclosure

Symbol: USD/CAD Action: SELL Entry Range: 1.40115 - 1.40187 Target 1: 1.39202 Target 2: 1.38626 Target 3: 1.37550 Target 4: 1.36608 Stop Loss: 1.40980 Risk Disclosure

Growing U.S.-China Trade Disputes Affect the World Economy In early February 2025, the U.S. and China’s ongoing trade disagreements got worse, creating big impacts on the global economy. These tensions are causing problems for businesses, shoppers, and even gas prices worldwide. A Back-and-Forth Tariff Fight On February 4th, the U.S. added a 10% tax on many products imported from China, like electronics and clothes. The U.S. government says this is to stop unfair trade practices and illegal drugs like fentanyl from entering the country. But this tax also means American companies now pay more to buy Chinese goods. Over time, this could make everyday items more expensive for U.S. shoppers. China didn’t stay quiet. On February 10th, they announced their own taxes on American products: • A 15% tax on U.S. coal and natural gas. • A 10% tax on U.S. oil, farm tools, and some cars. Since China buys a lot of U.S. oil and natural gas, these taxes could hurt American energy companies. If China starts buying these supplies from cheaper countries (like Russia), U.S. companies might struggle to sell their products, which could shake up global energy prices. Why Are the U.S. and China Fighting? The U.S. wants China to follow three main rules to make trade fairer: 1. Protect American ideas and technology: U.S. companies say China sometimes copies or steals their technology. The U.S. wants China to stop forcing companies to share secret tech info to do business there. 2. Stop favoring Chinese companies: The U.S. claims China gives its state-owned companies extra help (like money from the government), making it hard for American businesses to compete. 3. Remove hidden trade barriers: China has rules, like strict permits or limits on imports, that make it tough for U.S. companies to sell products there. The U.S. wants these rules gone. China, on the other hand, is using tariffs to push back, especially targeting industries where the U.S. is strong, like energy. Currencies Are Getting Shaky The trade fight is also affecting money values around the world: • China’s yuan: China might make the yuan weaker on purpose. This makes Chinese products cheaper for other countries to buy, helping China sell more despite U.S. taxes. But it could also make everyday items in China more expensive. • U.S. dollar: Investors see the dollar as a safer choice during uncertain times, so its value has gone up. But a stronger dollar makes American products pricier for other countries, hurting U.S. exporters. • Other currencies: Countries like those in Europe or Canada, which trade a lot with both the U.S. and China, are seeing their currencies lose value because of the uncertainty. What Happens Next? If the U.S. and China don’t reach a deal soon: • Prices for things like gas, electronics, and clothes could keep rising. • U.S. energy companies might lose money if China buys less from them. • Chinese factories relying on U.S. technology could face delays or shortages. The whole world is watching to see if these two economic giants can work things out. Until then, everyone—from businesses to families—should prepare for more ups and downs in prices and markets.

Symbol: AUD/JPY Action: SELL Entry Range: 96.691 - 96.009 Target 1: 95.054 Target 2: 94.339 Target 3: 93.640 Target 4: 92.771 Stop Loss: 97.733 Risk Disclosure

The White House has announced a one-month delay on the planned 25% tariffs on Mexican imports. This decision follows an agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, wherein Mexico will deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to enhance border security and combat fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration. Outcomes from this News: Less Economic Impact: The delay may prevent immediate economic disruptions, such as increased consumer prices and potential job losses in industries reliant on Mexican imports.  Improved Diplomatic Relations: The agreement could lead to improved diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Mexico, fostering cooperation on border security and trade issues.

Understanding the January 2025 U.S. Jobs Report The U.S. jobs report for January 2025 is scheduled for release on Friday, February 7, 2025, at 7:30 AM (ET).  Key Expectations: Job Growth: Economists anticipate the addition of approximately 170,000 jobs in January, a decrease from the 256,000 jobs added in December. This slowdown is attributed to factors such as California wildfires, cold weather, and industrial strikes, which could reduce the total job gains by 60,000 to 80,000.  Average Hourly Earnings: A 0.3% increase is expected, bringing the annual wage growth to 3.8%, slightly down from 3.9% in December. Unemployment Rate: Predicted to remain steady at 4.1%, indicating that most individuals seeking employment are able to find work. Implications for the Economy: While job growth is slowing, the labor market remains stable. The Federal Reserve is not expected to make significant changes to its policies based on this report, suggesting that the economy is not facing major issues but is not growing as quickly as it was last year.

wants Mexico to tighten border security and stop illegal crossings. By using tariffs, Trump hopes to pressure Mexico into taking stronger action. 2. Fentanyl Smuggling: A huge concern is fentanyl, a deadly drug that has been flowing into the U.S. from Mexico. These tariffs are meant to push Mexico to crack down harder on drug trafficking. 3. Economic Leverage: Beyond security, this is also about trade negotiations. By making imports from Canada and Mexico more expensive, the U.S. is trying to gain an upper hand in trade talks. 7. Who’s Getting Hit the Hardest? The tariffs aren’t just about oil and raw materials—they’re affecting a wide range of industries. • Automobiles: Car prices could rise as tariffs hit auto parts and manufacturing costs. • Agriculture: Farmers could take a serious hit, especially if Canada and Mexico stop buying U.S. products in retaliation. • Electronics & Consumer Goods: Expect price hikes on imported tech and everyday items. Final Thoughts: What Does This Mean for You? At the end of the day, Trump’s tariffs are a high-stakes economic gamble. • For traders: Buckle up—markets are going to be volatile. If you’re trading forex or commodities, these tariffs create both risks and opportunities. Stay on top of the news because things can change fast. • For consumers: Prices on imported goods might go up, and businesses that rely on international trade could struggle. Whether this will help U.S. workers in the long run or just make things more expensive remains to be seen. • For the global economy: The big question is whether this turns into a full-blown trade war. If that happens, the fallout could be serious, with ripple effects across multiple industries and countries. At its core, tariffs are a tool—a way to force other countries to play by new rules. But like any tool, they can be helpful or destructive, depending on how they’re used. Will Trump’s strategy work? Only time will tell. Risk Disclosure

How Trump’s Tariffs Are Shaking Up Forex and Commodity Markets President Trump’s latest tariff moves have sent shockwaves through global markets, especially in forex and commodities. It’s a messy, unpredictable situation, but let’s break it down, how currencies are reacting, what’s happening to oil and gold, and why these tariffs even exist in the first place. 1. Currency Market Chaos The Dollar’s Power Move The U.S. dollar has been flexing, gaining strength against currencies like the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. After the tariff announcement, the dollar shot up more than 2% against the peso and about 1% against the Canadian dollar. Why? Because in times of uncertainty, investors rush to what they see as “safe” assets, and the U.S. dollar is still one of the safest bets out there. Emerging Market Currencies Taking a Hit Meanwhile, currencies in emerging markets—especially in Mexico and Canada—are feeling the pressure. With tariffs threatening trade, investors get nervous, causing these currencies to dip. Less trade means less economic activity, and that’s never a good sign for a country’s currency. 2. Commodity Market Shake-Up Oil Prices Are in Trouble One of the biggest shocks is in oil. The U.S. just applied a 10% tariff on Canadian oil. Since Canada is one of the biggest oil suppliers to the U.S., this could cause a $3-$4 discount on Canadian crude. Canadian oil companies now have two choices: eat the losses or offer discounts to stay competitive. Either way, U.S. refineries that rely on Canadian oil might start looking elsewhere, which could cause ripple effects in the global oil market. Gold Prices on the Rise Whenever there’s economic uncertainty, people rush to gold—it’s the classic “safe haven” asset. With trade tensions heating up, gold prices could climb toward $3,000 per ounce as investors look for ways to hedge against risk. Base Metals Feeling the Pressure Copper, aluminum, and other base metals are also caught in the crossfire. JP Morgan has already warned that prices for these metals could drop. Why? Because tariffs can slow down trade, which slows down demand, which then drags prices down. Simple as that. 3. Stock Markets Getting Jittery Nobody likes uncertainty, least of all investors. Stock markets in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico all took a hit after the tariff announcement. Investors are worried that this trade fight could spiral into something bigger—possibly even a recession in some countries. If that happens, markets could see even more volatility in the months ahead. 4. Retaliation: The Trade War Escalates Trade wars aren’t one-sided, and Canada and Mexico aren’t just sitting back. They’ve already announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, hitting everything from agriculture to alcohol. This tit-for-tat escalation is making investors even more nervous, and if it keeps up, it could seriously mess with global supply chains. 5. The Bigger Economic Picture Inflation Concerns Tariffs don’t just hurt businesses—they hit consumers, too. Prices for things like avocados, beer, electronics, and even cherry tomatoes could go up in the U.S. as imports become more expensive. That, in turn, could fuel inflation, making everyday life a little more expensive for everyone. Global Economic Fallout Economists are already warning that these tariffs could push Canada and Mexico toward a recession. Both countries rely heavily on trade with the U.S., so if their economies slow down, it could send shockwaves through global markets. 6. Why Is Trump Doing This? The Tariffs: What and Why? • What’s Being Taxed? Starting February 4, 2025, the U.S. has imposed: • 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods • 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and Canadian oil • Why? The Trump administration is justifying these tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, citing national security concerns. But what does that really mean? National Security or Negotiation Tactic? Trump’s reasoning falls into three main areas: 1. Illegal Immigration: The U.S.