The Grit Guide by Gerald

🚨 Moonshot AI May IPO Within 6 Months – Why Investors Should Pay Attention One of the biggest AI stories this year just got even more interesting. Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI is reportedly preparing for a Hong Kong IPO within the next six months, potentially at a valuation exceeding US$30 billion. Some interesting numbers: 📈 Annual recurring revenue has grown from US$200 million in April to US$300 million in June. 📈 Demand for its latest Kimi K3 model has been so strong that the company temporarily paused new subscriptions to prioritise existing users. 📈 Management claims Kimi K3 now outperforms almost every major AI model except Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 in overall capability. Why does this matter? This isn’t just another IPO. It signals that the AI race is no longer a US-only story. For the past few years, much of the market’s AI optimism has revolved around companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Alphabet. Investors largely assumed that America’s technological lead would remain dominant. Moonshot’s rapid progress reminds us that China is catching up much faster than many expected. Competition in AI is becoming global. What does this mean for investors? 1️⃣ AI spending isn’t slowing down. Companies worldwide continue investing aggressively into computing power, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure and AI software. The long-term structural trend remains intact. 2️⃣ Competition could reshape valuations. If Chinese AI models become increasingly competitive, investors may reassess whether today’s winners deserve their current premiums. We already saw semiconductor stocks react sharply after Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3. 3️⃣ Diversification matters more than ever. This is exactly why I generally prefer diversified technology exposure rather than concentrating too heavily in a single company or theme. Even if you’re convinced AI will transform the world (I certainly believe it will), predicting which company ultimately wins is much harder. History has shown us that revolutionary industries often create enormous value—but not always for the companies investors initially expect. My thoughts I remain very bullish on AI over the next decade. However, this news reinforces something I’ve shared with clients many times: Invest in the trend, not just the headline. The AI pie is likely to become much bigger, but the slices may be shared among more players than the market previously anticipated. As always, staying diversified and maintaining a long-term perspective will likely prove more valuable than trying to predict the next AI champion. Gerald Tan Creator of The Grit Guide

📈 June market round up 📉 The AI boom continues: Nvidia's new superchip sends tech stocks to fresh records https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-06-01-2026 Inflation hits 4.2%: why rising energy costs are keeping prices high for consumers https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html The Fed holds firm: interest rates stay put as officials watch inflation closely https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm Oil prices rebound: how renewed Middle East tensions are pushing up the cost of crude https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-poised-best-month-nearly-year-eyes-jobs-data-gulf-tension-2026-06-29/ The dollar strengthens: why global uncertainty is making the US currency a safe haven https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-poised-best-month-nearly-year-eyes-jobs-data-gulf-tension-2026-06-29/ Tech selloff hits Asia: rising AI costs spark a sudden drop in major chip stocks https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/26/global-tech-stocks-ai-infrastructure-costs-selloff-softbank-apple.html Bitcoin drops below $72,000: why major corporate sales are testing crypto investors https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-06012026-11987627

🌏 The best-performing market this year isn't the US. But most investors don't own a single dollar of it. Emerging markets are up over 25% in 2026 — roughly DOUBLE the return of developed markets (+12%). And here's what makes it more interesting: this is happening even with a firm US dollar and a hawkish Fed working against it. That matters. When EM rallies purely because the dollar weakens, it can be a currency illusion. When it rallies despite a strengthening dollar — like now — it points to something more real: actual earnings growth and money genuinely rotating into markets like Taiwan, China, South Korea and India. Meanwhile, the usual suspects are wobbling. Korea's market dropped almost 10% in a day last week on chip concentration. The S&P remains 33% concentrated in just 7 stocks. The growth story is broadening beyond the names everyone already owns. The catch? Emerging markets aren't something to buy blindly off a headline. Which markets, how much exposure, and how it fits alongside your existing holdings — that's where it needs to be done properly. Get it wrong and you're just swapping one concentration risk for another. If your portfolio is all-US or all-local, you're missing the part of the world that's actually moving. Drop me a message and I'll walk you through whether emerging markets exposure makes sense for you 📩

⚠️ Think you're diversified because you own the S&P 500? 7 stocks would like a word 🤣 Nearly a third of the S&P 500 (about 33%) now sits in just the "Magnificent 7". If the index is your ONLY holding, your returns are effectively riding on a handful of tech names — you're more concentrated than you think. And we just watched what concentration can do. On 23 June, Korea's KOSPI plunged almost 10% in a single day — its biggest point drop on record — because just two chip stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, make up nearly HALF that index. When they fell, the whole market fell with them. It rebounded within days, but that's the point: concentration means someone else's bad week becomes your bad week. Does that mean sell everything? No. S&P earnings estimates are still being revised upward (~$336 consensus for 2026, ~$385+ projected for 2027) — the fundamentals are holding up. The issue isn't the market. It's holding ONE market and calling it a portfolio. The fix is simpler than people think: spread exposure across regions and sectors that don't move together. Emerging markets, for instance, are up over 25% this year — and most portfolios I see intially have ZERO exposure there. When did you last stress-test your portfolio for concentration risk? If the answer is "never" or "not sure", a conversation with me is a lot cheaper than finding out the hard way 🤐

🚨 Your cash lost money again this year… Not in your bank statement though, you'll never see it there 😓 It shows up as prices quietly rising faster than your savings. Here's why 👇 Since the early 2000s, we've been living in an era where holding cash means losing purchasing power every single year. The days when you could earn real returns just parking money in savings? Economists agree they're not coming back anytime soon. "But I'm waiting for rates to settle before I invest." Here's the thing: there's no settled moment coming. The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% in June, and markets now see roughly a 2-in-3 chance of no change this month — with some betting on a hike by year-end. Yet through all this uncertainty, markets haven't waited: emerging markets are up over 25% this year, and S&P earnings estimates keep being revised UPWARD (consensus near $336 for 2026, some houses already at $340). That's the pattern every cycle: markets move on expectations, before the news is confirmed. By the time the picture looks "safe and obvious", the move has already happened. Waiting for certainty just means buying in 10 steps behind. Every year on the sidelines is a year you don't get back. If you've got cash sitting idle with no clear plan for it, I'll be happy to show you what it's ACTUALLY costing you, and what your options are 📩

Hi Friends of Grit Guide 👋 📊 US Markets: Relief Rally or Calm Before the Storm? Markets pushed higher this week as optimism around a potential US-Iran agreement and softer inflation data boosted investor sentiment. But with the Federal Reserve meeting just around the corner, are markets getting ahead of themselves? Next week's rate decision, retail sales, and housing data could provide crucial clues on where the economy and markets are headed next. If you'd like to learn more, feel free to reach out. For our clients, you'll likely be receiving our detailed market update shortly.

🤔 AI Bubble 🫧 or Breakthrough 📈? If you've been following the headlines, you've probably noticed something that feels off: markets are hitting record highs (the S&P 500 just notched its 24th record of the year) - at the same time as an ongoing war in the Middle East. A lot of my clients & retail investors are asking the same thing: is this AI boom the real deal, or a bubble waiting to pop? Here's my honest take 👇 It's the real deal. However, it's narrow. This rally is being driven almost entirely by AI infrastructure - chipmakers like Nvidia, Micron and Broadcom, instead of the broad economy. Semiconductors alone account for more than half of the market's gains this year, and more than $40 of every $100 invested now flows into just 10 companies 🤯. So when you hear "the market is up," it's really a handful of names doing the heavy lifting. The demand behind them is genuine (hence the breakthrough) - but leaning on so few names is exactly where the risk sits (the bubble). The S&P is also historically expensive. On a long-term valuation measure, the S&P 500 is the 2nd most expensive it has been in 69 years‼️(only the dot-com peak in 2000 was higher). • What that does NOT mean: a crash tomorrow. Expensive markets can stay expensive for a long time. • What it DOES mean: more modest expected returns from here, and a thinner margin for error if something surprises us - like the Iran conflict, which is keeping oil elevated and inflation sticky. So what should you actually do? Not panic, and try not to time the top either. The smarter move is making sure your portfolio is positioned for more than just the best-case scenario, because right now the market is largely priced for the best case. Here's the thing most people get backwards: the best time to review a portfolio is when you're ahead - not after the curveball hits. Anyone can sell in a panic. Repositioning from a position of strength, while you're still up, is what actually protects the gains you've worked for. So if you've been riding this rally, let's spend 20 minutes making sure you get to keep more of it. I'll show you exactly where the concentration risk sits in your own holdings and what a more resilient setup could look like - no pressure to change anything, just clarity. Reply with "review" and I'll send you a message. 📈 This is a general market view and not personalised advice! I’ll tailor everything to your situation when we chat 🫶

Hi Friends of Grit Guide 👋 📈Stocks Are Soaring While Americans Are Miserable 😭 The U.S. is experiencing one of the most striking disconnects in financial history. Consumer sentiment just hit its lowest in 70 years, 10% below the June 2022 inflation peak, while the S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive weekly gain and the Dow hit back-to-back record closes. The S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio stands at 40.8, only seen once before in 145 years, during the dot-com bubble of 2000. Economists offer 3 explanations. First, stocks may be dangerously disconnected from economic reality and headed for a sharp correction. Second, markets may be looking past current pain toward a future where the Iran war ends, inflation eases, and growth rebounds, essentially pricing in an optimistic scenario. Third, AI may be the common thread driving both trends at once: where companies use AI to slash labor costs and widen profit margins is fantastic for shareholders, but deeply unsettling for workers.

Market Reminder: Don’t Let Headlines Shake You Out Too Easily During the Strait of Hormuz disruption, markets were hit with a fresh wave of uncertainty. Oil prices spiked, inflation fears came back, and many investors started questioning whether they should reduce exposure or move out of the market. Reuters reported that the blockade pushed oil prices above US$100 per barrel and created renewed concerns around inflation and global business costs. But this is where investors need to separate headlines from fundamentals. Despite the uncertainty, Q1 earnings season has been stronger than expected. According to FactSet, as of 24 April 2026, 81% of S&P 500 companies that reported revenue had beaten estimates, above both the 5-year average of 70% and the 10-year average of 67%. By 8 May 2026, FactSet also reported that 84% of S&P 500 companies had beaten EPS estimates, with blended earnings growth at 27.7%, the strongest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021 if it holds. This is why I always remind clients: time in the market is more important than timing the market. When fear is high, it is very tempting to sell first and ask questions later. But historically, the market often recovers before the headlines become positive again. Those who move out too quickly may miss the rebound. A few key observations: 1 Corporate earnings are still resilient. 2 Profit margins remain strong, especially among large quality companies. 3 AI continues to support productivity and earnings growth for selected businesses. 4 If oil prices eventually cool, inflation pressure may ease. 5 A new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, has been confirmed, and markets are watching closely to see whether future rate cuts become more likely. Of course, this does not mean we invest blindly. Risks are still real — oil, inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions can still create volatility. But volatility is not always a reason to run away. Sometimes, it is the price we pay for long-term returns. The key is not to panic. The key is to stay invested in quality, stay diversified, and make decisions based on fundamentals, not fear.

Hi Friends of Grit Guide 👋 📈 April Market Round Up 📉 🛢️ Brent Whipsaws Between $86 and $111 in April — Ceasefire Extensions and Collapsed Talks Keep Oil Traders on Edge https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-04-22-2026/ 🚢 Hormuz Still Largely Shut — Iran Refuses to Reopen Strait While US Navy Intercepts Vessels; Demand Destruction Nearing 5 Million Barrels per Day https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil 📈 S&P 500 Surges ~7.7% in April, Touches Record Highs — Nasdaq Also Hits All-Time High on Blockbuster Bank Earnings https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX 🏦 Kevin Warsh Faces Senate in Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing — Rates Held at 3.50–3.75%; Powell's Term Ending Next Month https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/kevin-warsh-fed-confirmation-hearing-trump-live-updates.html 🥇 Gold Recovers to ~$4,750–$4,800, Up ~8% for April — Still Down ~10% from $5,589 ATH as Oil-Driven Inflation Weighs on Bullion https://fortune.com/article/current-price-of-gold-04-20-2026/ ⚡ Copper Holds Above $12,600/tonne — US Pre-Tariff Stockpiling Keeps Floor Intact Ahead of Expected 15% Refined Copper Tariff Mid-2026 https://www.bydfi.com/en/cointalk/copper-price-news-forecast-2026-ai-tariffs-mining 🌍 IMF Cuts Global Growth to 3.1%, Raises Inflation Forecast to 4.4% — Spring Meetings Held Under Theme "Global Economy in the Shadow of War" https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026 🇸🇬 MAS Tightens in April — Slightly Increases S$NEER Appreciation Slope as Import Inflation Builds; Core Inflation Now Seen at 1.5–2.5% https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/monetary-policy-statements/2026/mas-monetary-policy-statement-14apr26 🇸🇬 Singapore Q1 GDP +4.6% YoY but -0.3% QoQ — Economy Moderating from Exceptional 5.0% Outturn in 2025 https://arnifi.com/blog/singapore-q1-2026-gdp-growth-overview/ 🇸🇬 STI Retests 5,000 — Index Remains Resilient Relative to Regional Peers, Hovering Near February's All-Time High of 5,041 https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/stock-market

📊 US Market Weekly Wrap | Week Ending 25 Apr 2026 The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,165, hitting yet another all-time high, its 4th consecutive weekly gain. Up 9.8% for April and 4.7% YTD. Not bad at all. What drove the week? 🟢 Energy (+3.2%) — Oil prices climbed on Middle East tensions. Baker Hughes (BKR) surged 15.3% on strong Q1 earnings. 🟢 Tech (+3.1%) — Intel (INTC) jumped 21% after beating Q1 estimates and issuing an upbeat Q2 outlook, riding AI-driven chip demand. 🟢 Consumer Staples (+1.2%) — quiet but steady. What dragged? 🔴 Healthcare (-3.1%) — HCA Healthcare fell 11.4% despite beating estimates; seasonal patient volumes disappointed. Thermo Fisher (TMO) dropped 10.8% on weak organic growth. 🔴 Financials (-1.9%) | Real Estate (-1.5%) Big week ahead 👀 • Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Eli Lilly, Berkshire Hathaway and more. • Key data: Q1 GDP, PCE inflation, April consumer confidence • And the Fed meets Wednesday!