Observer Research Foundation

On August 7, 2026, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye signed the 'Mecca Joint Defense Agreement' aimed at building collective deterrence and enhancing regional stability. The timing of the signing is widely read as a response by these states to the faltering US security umbrella in West Asia. This brief argues that the coming together of these countries reflects a reshaping of the region's security architecture, with countries exploring ways to supplement US security support: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/a-new-axis-in-west-asia-reading-the-new-saudi-turkish-pakistani-defence-pact

Climate change has far-reaching consequences for population health, and the World Health Organization has identified it as the biggest threat of the 21st century. Yet only 2% of adaptation funding, and 0.5% of multilateral climate funding overall, goes to health — leaving the sector with the greatest unmet need. This brief argues that primary reason healthcare has been overlooked in large climate funds is how these funds are designed: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/why-health-remains-underfunded-in-global-climate-finance

The global blue economy was valued at roughly US$2.8 trillion in 2024 and is projected to nearly double by 2034. As the blue economy expands across shipping, tourism, offshore energy, and deep-sea resources, we must ask: are the people who have always lived with the ocean being carried along in this growth, or left behind? This brief argues that a resilient blue economy must go beyond ports and shipping to empower the coastal communities whose knowledge, livelihoods, and heritage sustain it: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-sea-remembers-reviving-coastal-heritage-for-an-inclusive-blue-economy

Pax Silica is a useful platform to discuss questions of technology and access, and India has good reason to participate. However, this brief argues that it is not neutral. Pax Silica is an America-first platform built to serve American interests, and India's engagement needs to be informed by that reality. While it offers India a seat in the AI supply chain, access remains shaped by US interests, making domestic capability essential to lasting technological leverage: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/access-without-guarantee-what-the-second-pax-silica-summit-means-for-india

For India to undergo a meaningful structural transformation, states like Tamil Nadu and Gujarat must evolve into manufacturing powerhouses on the scale of Vietnam or Malaysia. Over the decades, state governments have institutionalised foreign outreach, directed mostly at attracting foreign direct investment and technology — yet there is one crucial import that has been overlooked. This brief argues that India's next strategic import should be institutional capability, with state governments sending delegations to Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan to understand how effective developmental bureaucracies are built and sustained: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-missing-piece-in-india-s-economic-diplomacy

The UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) is largely regarded as a UN peacekeeping success. It facilitated the peaceful demilitarisation of rebel forces, reintegrated fighters into civilian life, and supported three democratic elections. However, the operation was far from perfect: the mission was highly controversial because of peacekeeper conduct, the UN was accused of ending the mission prematurely and more than 15 years after the end of the conflict, UNMIL had not fully succeeded in consolidating Liberia's democracy. This brief argues that peacekeeping remains a valuable tool that must be reevaluated and reformed to better serve the people it aims to protect: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/reforming-peacekeeping-what-liberia-s-contested-peace-teaches-us

The number of confirmed Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo has surpassed 4,000, characterised by delayed detection, the absence of a specific vaccine or treatment, and a fatality rate of 30–50%. As the outbreak spreads across the DRC, advances in vaccines and therapeutics are being outpaced by conflict, mistrust, and gaps in contact tracing This brief argues that while science can provide the necessary tools to contain an outbreak, trust in it is essential to putting these tools to work: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-drc-s-ebola-outbreak-and-the-limits-of-preparedness

In June, WhatsApp announced usernames, allowing users to reserve handles ahead of the feature's wider rollout. The announcement soon drew scrutiny from the Government of India, against the backdrop of India recording a rise in reported cybersecurity incidents — from 10.29 lakh in 2022 to 22.68 lakh in 2024. This brief argues that this is the privacy-evasion dilemma at the heart of the debate: the same design choice that protects users can also be the one that complicates accountability. The real challenge now will be to prevent usernames from becoming tools of evasion without turning privacy itself into a regulatory suspect: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/privacy-or-evasion-the-policy-dilemma-around-messaging-app-usernames

#ORFevents ORF is hosting a discussion titled ‘Beneath the Surface: India’s Submarine Capacity-Building and Subsurface Warfare Strategy’ as part of the National Security Dialogue. The session will assess India’s current and future requirements in the undersea domain by linking strategic objectives to submarine development, force structure, emerging technologies, industrial capacity, and international cooperation. The discussion will also seek to identify the capabilities India requires in the short, medium and long term, while considering how rapid technological change may alter conventional assumptions about naval power and fleet architecture. 🗓️ 19 August | 📍ORF Delhi | Open Event Register Now 🔗 https://or-f.org/39910

The global order is undergoing one of its most profound transformations since the end of the Cold War — geopolitical fragmentation, supply-chain disruptions, climate risks, technological competition, and mounting development financing gaps have exposed the limitations of the existing multilateral architecture. This brief argues that the next frontier for BRICS lies not in mobilising more finance, but in redefining how the world measures wealth, resilience, and progress: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-brics-moment-a-new-multilateralism-for-a-fragmented-world

The meeting between Somaliland President and commander of US Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA), suggests that US recognition of Somaliland may be increasingly likely. This brief argues that Somaliland offers geographical advantages, political stability, military utility, counterterrorism cooperation, critical mineral potential and alignment with American strategic interests in countering both Iran and China: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/why-washington-may-finally-recognise-somaliland

The meeting between Somaliland President and commander of US Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA), suggests that US recognition of Somaliland may be increasingly likely. This brief argues that Somaliland offers geographical advantages, political stability, military utility, counterterrorism cooperation, critical mineral potential and alignment with American strategic interests in countering both Iran and China: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/why-washington-may-finally-recognise-somaliland

#ORFevents ORF is hosting a discussion titled ‘Moon: The Next Antarctica’ as part of the a new series - ‘Space Conversations’. The discussion will examine how important it is to emulate the best practices of the international community in Antarctica as research and commercial activities on the Moon are on an uprise. 🗓️ 18 August | 📍ORF Mumbai | Open Event Register Now 🔗 https://or-f.org/39868

In response to the April 2025 Pahalgam attack, PM Modi stated that 'blood and water cannot flow together'; Pakistani PM Sharif condemned these moves, stating that any reduction of water flow from the rivers would pose a direct threat to the country's national security. This brief argues that the treaty's resilience in the years ahead will not only depend on its effectiveness in managing water resources but also on its role as a source of strategic stability between two nuclear powers: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-indus-waters-treaty-under-pressure-the-reach-for-nuclear-signalling

Brazil is the world's fifth-largest country by geography, the seventh-largest by population, and the most urbanised nation among the ten most populous countries on the planet. Around 1940, Brazil had already reached an urbanisation rate of 32%, the level India reached in 2011 (31.16 percent); by 2025, Brazil's urbanisation had climbed to nearly 90 percent. This brief argues that Brazil's experience provides a useful template for moving from constitutional recognition to substantive reforms that strengthen India's cities and urban governance: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/brazil-and-urban-governance-reforms-lessons-for-india

On 16 July, India and the European Union began formal negotiations on India's association with Horizon Europe, the EU's flagship research and innovation programme. This brief argues that India's association with Horizon Europe will further institutionalise and reinforce the emergence of a broader EU-India partnership increasingly defined by shared strategic interests, where scientific collaboration is becoming a key pillar: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-s-association-with-horizon-europe-beyond-scientific-cooperation

AI has diffused through the economy faster than any previous technology, yet the labour market carries almost no trace of it — unemployment across the advanced economies remains near record lows. This brief argues that none of the labour-market apprehensions stem from the technology alone: the speed of the adjustment and the distribution of its gains are ultimately policy variables: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-ai-jobs-debate-is-asking-the-wrong-question

Pakistan's reported deployment of nearly 250 Chinese-made SH-15 wheeled self-propelled howitzers along sectors facing India is less a standalone military development than another marker of the deepening strategic convergence between Beijing and Islamabad. This brief argues that sustaining credible deterrence in an increasingly contested regional security environment will depend not on reacting to individual acquisitions but on maintaining the momentum of indigenous modernisation, strengthening network-centric warfare capabilities, and preserving readiness across an enduring two-front challenge: https://www.orfonline.org/research/beyond-the-sh-15-china-s-expanding-military-footprint-in-pakistan

When Sanae Takaichi arrived in New Delhi for the 16th India-Japan Annual Summit, the most consequential item may have been the least reported: An exchange of letters between the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA) and Japan's Financial Services Agency for cooperation on regulation, supervision, FinTech and RegTech, alongside a commitment to facilitate Japanese banks expanding into India's banking and non-banking sectors. This brief argues that as Japan's ageing economy pushes its financial institutions to hunt for yield abroad, India must build the regulatory plumbing to capture that capital before Tokyo's domestic politics close the window: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/patient-capital-impatient-politics-japan-s-financial-turn-toward-india

Sudan was already split once in 2011. As civil war drags on, a second partition looks increasingly likely — not by design, but by default. Since the beginning of the civil war in April 2023, more than 900,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to Chad, whose eastern regions are home to many of Darfur's cross-border ethnic communities and longstanding ethnic fault lines. This brief argues that a second partition would not bring peace, it would merely transform today's civil war into tomorrow's permanent instability: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/another-partition-why-sudan-s-fracture-won-t-stay-contained