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In other words, the broader ETF market was reducing exposure, but large reporting institutions collectively increased theirs. Among the 25 largest disclosed holders, 17 expanded their positions. For example Wells Fargo and JPMorgan added significant exposure, similar to Abu Dhabi sovereign investors increased their holdings. The number of reporting institutions still declined by approximately 6.8%, showing that participation did not strengthen everywhere. But this makes the underlying shift more interesting: Fewer institutions reported exposure, while those remaining collectively held more Bitcoin. While weaker participants were leaving, larger pools of capital were increasing their share of the available exposure. That is exactly the type of divergence we want to see. That's why I'll say it again. The long-term opportunity increasingly outweighs the potential short-term downside. Enjoy your Sunday! 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

INSTITUTIONS BOUGHT WHILE BITCOIN FELL The latest Q2 13F filings reveal an important divergence beneath Bitcoin’s weakness. During the quarter: • Bitcoin declined approximately 14%. • Total ETF holdings fell 6.6%. • Reported institutional holdings increased 7.5%. Institutional ETF exposure rose from approximately 498,000 BTC to 536,000 BTC, while its share of total ETF holdings reached a new high of 44.2%.

That’s the goal of the new Weekly EDGE³ issues and the circle. To expand our edge even further without sacrificing precision. In a market full of rugs, we’re trying to find the opportunities that allow us to win together. The new first issue has already paid off. Given the current market conditions, creating the EDGE³ Circle was one of the best things we could have done. I’d also love to share what XBT found, because it's really intersting from a r/r perspective, but the market cap is simply too low at the moment to do that here, so we have to keep it inside the circle. Otherwise, we’d risk becoming exit liquidity and that’s obviously not the goal here. But you will see, we will win step by step together. 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

The Bitcoin Cycle - Part I After weeks of research, Part I of the Bitcoin Cycle Report is finally finished. I analyzed previous Bitcoin cycles and went through dozens of indicators to answer one question: Where are we actually in the cycle and what could come next? And yes, most indicators that worked in previous cycles have failed this time. But a few important patterns haven’t changed. That’s where things get interesting. I took me a lot of work and time to make this report and to focus on the data that matters most, separating what the market 'feels' like from what the data is actually showing. If you are intersted in the most important questions during a cycle. Send ''BTC21'' to @XBTAnalyst and he will send you the details. Those who’ve been around for a while know how accurate we were last time. If we can repeat that level of accuracy this cycle, we will be very very happy : ) Enjoy your day! 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

Today, one Bitcoin buys approximately 15 ounces of gold. At the peak, it bought almost 40 ounces. And now most investors see weakness, but I see a potential long-term opportunity here. Gold has already repriced the demand for scarcity. Bitcoin has not. Debt is expanding. Confidence in fiat currencies is declining. Capital is searching for assets that cannot be created without limits. Gold captured this demand first because it is familiar. Bitcoin is still early and it does not need to replace gold. It only needs to capture a part of the same demand. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s institutional access, regulation and global infrastructure continue improving while its valuation against gold keeps compressing. The first major confirmation would be the BTC/Gold ratio reclaiming the 20-ounce area. That would show Bitcoin is not only rising in dollar terms, it is regaining purchasing power against gold itself. And i think we are getting closer to this point. Have a great start to the week! 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

It always makes me proud to read your feedbacks. Members use the filtered information to make their own decisions. That's one of the most important pillars of everything we're building. I can provide the information and filter it as well as possible, but in the end, you have to decide what fits your own risk tolerance. That's also the goal of the new Weekly EDGE³ issues: to make them as efficient as possible. Those of you who have been reading the previous issues know that I like to write sometimes a lot and when it's necessary, I still will. But the purpose of the new Weekly Edge style is to deliver the highest information with the least amount of distraction. Even if you don't open a single chart or interact with crypto all week, the Weekly Edge should be the one place where you get the most important information to prepare you for the week ahead and often even the months ahead, so that you can make informed decisions when the time comes. Enjoy your Sunday! 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

THE ONCHAIN GAME HAS CHANGED A few years ago, finding a token early, following the right wallets and understanding the narrative could create a genuine edge. Today, the game is much more sophisticated. Social trading platforms are competing aggressively for users, deposits and trading volume. That changes the incentives behind everything you see. When someone profits from bringing you onto a platform and getting you to trade, the content surrounding that trade is no longer neutral. PnLs can be selectively framed. Winning positions can be shown without the losing ones if you do it smart. Entries can be manipulated. And illiquid tokens can be promoted to an audience that becomes the liquidity. But the most dangerous part is that selling no longer always looks like selling. Through concentrated single-sided liquidity positions, token supply can be placed above the current market price and gradually converted into the paired asset as buyers push price higher. On many standard trading tools, this does not appear like obvious wallet dumping. The chart can look strong. The wallets can look clean. The social feed can look bullish. Meanwhile, distribution may already be built directly into the liquidity. This creates a new onchain funnel: Attention that brings: • New platform users • Deposits and trading volume • Coordinated narratives • Low-liquidity tokens • Exit liquidity When the same narrative suddenly appears across several social trading apps and is amplified by multiple large accounts, do not automatically treat it as independent confirmation. It may simply be the same campaign reaching you from different directions. The timing is also worth questioning, because a lot changed in the past monehts. On 10/10/2025, crypto experienced its largest liquidation event, wiping out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions. Now, more and more supposedly successful perpetual futures traders, people who claim to move ''millio'', are suddenly promoting low-quality, illiquid coins across social trading apps and sell them for a few k profit. That does not prove what happened to any individual trader. But the shift in behavior should not be ignored. Perhaps some discovered a new edge or let's say it better... Or perhaps monetizing attention has become more profitable than risking their own capital. This is why the real edge today is no longer simply finding what is moving. It is understanding: • Why you are being shown it. • Who benefits when you trade it. • Where the supply is positioned. • And whether the apparent confirmation is organic or engineered. These apps will continue attracting users and genuine opportunities will emerge from them. But they may also become one of the most efficient systems ever created for transferring risk from sophisticated participants to inexperienced traders. Do not blindly follow the PnL. Follow the wallets, the liquidity, the incentives and the recurring patterns. That is where the truth usually appears first. Enjoy your Saturday! 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

That is around 190,000 BTC accumulated, worth more than $12 billion at the current price. Accumulation even accelerated after Bitcoin briefly moved below $60,000. This does not confirm that the bottom is already in. Price can remain weak while accumulation continues for months. But this is how major transitions often begin. Supply moves from emotional holders into the hands of larger, more patient capital before sentiment finally changes. The mainstream is waiting for confidence. Smart money is using the absence of confidence to accumulate. By the time Bitcoin looks strong again and KOLs become bullish, the market may have already repriced a large part of the opportunity. This is why we trust the data and recurring market patterns, not the emotion of the moment. Price shows the current pressure. Accumulation shows what is developing behind the scene. Smart money has started to accumulate. Now we watch whether it becomes strong enough to take control of the price in the near future. 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

Trust the Data Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, almost 50% below its October peak. Sentiment is extremely negative. Most market participants are waiting for Bitcoin to recover, KOLs to turn bullish and the market to give them confirmation. But the data shows that larger capital has already started to move. Looking at the data we can see whale wallets have increased their holdings from approximately 2.87 million BTC in December to around 3.06 million BTC now.

This does not mean Bitcoin must reverse immediately. During previous cycles, the indicator sometimes remained cold for months and price was still able to move lower before the final bottom was formed. But it does show something important: The market is no longer positioned in an overheated part of the cycle. Risk has been repriced, sentiment has collapsed and the long-term opportunity is becoming more attractive. The current reading is therefore not a perfect timing signal. It is a area signal. The smart money area. The closer the composite moves toward historical extremes, the less rational it becomes to lose conviction purely because of fear and the more important it becomes to prepare for confirmation. The opportunity is developing. Our plan is playing out exactly as expected, which is why quality will become increasingly important from here. The goal is to use periods of strong momentum to generate bonus capital that can be reinvested into strengthening the fundamental long-term positions. A major shift is taking place right now, yet it is being ignored more than ever because most people are distracted by price action and market sentiment. We'll never be able to perfectly identify the exact top or the exact bottom. However, those who read our reports throughout 2024 know how accurately we identified the market top. That's why the objective now is to position ourselves before the broader sentiment begins to shift. That's also the reason for yesterday's report, for example. It's not something that's going to deliver a 100x return overnight. Instead, it's about building a strong, fundamentally driven foundation for the long term. We don't want to start preparing once everyone is already euphoric. By then, the best opportunities will be gone. The period of euphoria isn't when you prepare, it's when you harvest the rewards of the work you've already done. 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

Bitcoin Has Entered the Cold Zone The Bitcoin Cycle Composite has fallen to 19.9, placing the market inside its “cold” area. Historically, similar readings appeared during some of Bitcoin’s most difficult phases: • The 2015 bear market • The 2018 capitulation • The COVID crash • The 2022 bear-market bottom

Some of you have asked me what I think about COIN and CRCL and whether I believe they have long-term potential. The short answer is yes. But instead of giving you a simple yes or no, I thought it would be much more valuable to explain what's actually behind these companies and why they matter from a long-term perspective. My goal isn't for you to blindly follow my opinion. I want you to build your own conviction and understand why the "WHY" behind an position is always more important than the investment itself. You've been here with me through this journey and we're going to navigate this market together. That's why you've earned another FREEBIE. Because you deserve more than just a quick "yes" or "no." If we're going to win this crypto game together, we need to prepare together! 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

This is where crypto becomes strategically important. Not primarily through Bitcoin, but through dollar-backed stablecoins. Regulated stablecoins must hold liquid reserves, including short-term US Treasuries. As global demand for digital dollars grows, stablecoin issuers must accumulate more reserve assets. The mechanism is simple: More onchain activity • More demand for stablecoins • More demand for US Treasuries The GENIUS Act regulates these digital dollars. The CLARITY Act could help build the economy in which they are used. Clearer rules for token issuance, exchanges, custody, DeFi and tokenized assets would make it easier for regulated onchain markets to grow inside the United States. This could create a new internet-native distribution layer for both the dollar and US government debt. It would not make America’s debt risk-free. But it could broaden the global buyer base for Treasuries, strengthen dollar demand and allow the US to finance a larger debt stock without borrowing pressure increasing at the same speed. At the same time, keeping crypto companies, developers and capital inside America would create additional investment, employment and taxable activity. That is the real strategic opportunity: Increase global demand for US debt while expanding the economy supporting it. The CLARITY Act is therefore not only about making crypto legal. It is about ensuring that the next generation of global financial infrastructure continues to run on the dollar and is built inside America. That could ultimately matter far more than the price of Bitcoin. This is why it is important not to lose conviction simply because Bitcoin is weak and sentiment is extremely negative. The market may look broken today, but the infrastructure for the next phase is already being built beneath the surface. Regulation, stablecoins and institutional adoption are not short-term narratives, they are structural changes. The greatest opportunities rarely become obvious when sentiment is strong. They are created when conviction disappears, attention moves elsewhere and only the focused remain. And YOU are still here. That's important. This is not the time to follow the emotion of the market. It is the time to stay rational and prepare for what comes next. 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

Why the CLARITY Act Is Bullish for America and Not Just Bitcoin Bitcoin does not need regulatory clarity from the United States to survive. America does. US national debt is approaching $40 trillion, while interest costs continue to rise. This means America will need to find increasingly more buyers for its government debt.

The last day to secure your spot inside the EDGE³ channel. All the research in one place during August. Early narratives, project research and where we believe the market is heading. Everything you need, all in one place, to give you the maximum edge. If you want to join, send a DM to @XBTAnalyst with: "EDGE³" He'll send you all the details. Let's conquer August and prepare for what is coming. Have a great start to the week! 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

If you've been following the last few days and paid attention to what Citadel first triggered and then did after the news about a possible rate hike came out, you'll understand just how ruthless the biggest players can be. And remember, all of this happened in the traditional markets with multi-billion-dollar companies. I also talked about this in today's Weekly Edge because I think it's a perfect example of how the game is played. Here's what happened. Just a few days before the AI trade completely fell apart, Citadel was among those pushing the narrative that a surprise rate hike could be coming. That uncertainty put even more pressure on an already overheated market. At the same time, Leopold Aschenbrenner's *Situational Awareness* fund was running around 4x leverage. As sentiment deteriorated and AI stocks started selling off, the fund was reportedly forced to liquidate a large part of its positions near the lows. What happened next is the interesting part. Citadel reportedly ended up buying many of those same assets back at significantly lower prices. If you know that a highly leveraged player can become a forced seller once sentiment turns, then pushing fear into the market suddenly becomes a very profitable strategy. Whether intentional or not, the entire sequence looked absolutely ruthless. And now ask yourself something. Do you really think the biggest players are simply going to sit back and let crypto adoption happen while early buyers still control a huge part of the supply? Or while entire ecosystems grow outside of their influence? Exactly. That's why shaking people out in a market as small as crypto is relatively easy for them. Volatility is the weapon. Fear is the tool. Most people sell exactly where the strongest hands are looking to buy. That's why I always say: zoom out. Look at the bigger picture. Look at how adoption keeps accelerating despite all the short-term chaos. Every cycle tries to convince you the story is over, while in reality the foundation keeps getting stronger. Now let's attack August. If you want access to the new EDGE³ channel, today's Weekly Edge issue and this week's RWA Gem, send a DM with: ''EDGE³'' to @XBTAnalyst and he will send you the details. Enjoy your weekend! 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

And the fact that these updates came out now is actually a coincidence, although it is related to the new team member, so in hindsight it may not have been entirely coincidental. I'm happy that you all like the RWA GEM and that we've had such a strong start with the EDGE³ channel. As I've said before, it's still very early, which means it comes with everything that being an early Gem implies. It has a unique selling point, a low market cap with significant upside potential and here even a live working product. That said, it's still crypto, even though this project places much greater emphasis on regulation than most. Personally, I see it as a strong long-term opportunity. If you are interested in the RWA Gem and joining us, send: ''EDGE³'' to @XBTAnalyst Exciting weeks lie ahead of us. 🜁 Arcanum 🜂

The project had actually been on my watchlist the entire time and active members know that. What I was missing was that final spark of conviction for a Gem. When I saw who had joined the team, the risk-to-reward ratio reached "Gem" status for me.

I completely agree. I'm glad that someone with much more experience in this sector shares the same view. Most participants in crypto are ignoring fundamentals because they want the next gazillion memecoin rug and they see RWAs as boring and it's probably too complex for many people to understand. To be completely honest, I didn't even know this market existed before I found this project. I had no idea there was so much value locked up in it. But that's exactly what blockchain technology makes possible: opening up an inefficient market with enormous untapped potential and making it far more efficient. We are still early here, but that's where the assymetry is.

RWA GEM Adoption is happening and RWA is one of the sectors that will benefit a lot from it. A project I’ve been watching has received Gem status from me because the asymmetry has now reached the point where the upside balances the risk, making it a solid addition to the Gem portfolio. I’ve already published the RWA Gem report inside the EDGE³ channel. As promised, there is now one place with maximum edge. If you are interested in joining us send: ''EDGE³'' to @XBTAnalyst It’s definitely worth joining now rather than later. 🜁 Arcanum 🜂