Provisionals

pinnacle of purchases

perhaps verification plays a bigger role in being the demand side of the market..?

The single best value PMs offer is the ability to hedge against global and local events.

but in the physical world....think behavor, in motion, in machines that see and act.

Other than Elon’s work, they seem to be at the forefront of data quality and focus

the most entertaining outcome is the most likely

public markets pricing growth quality / funding capacity. private markets pricing strategic scarcity. venture continues to shift back toward an ARD shaped permanent capital due to sector durations outpacing fund life

have yet to read the ribbit memo on power but T2P has been the phrase of the past few months. basically markets answer to it is bring your own capacity (byoc) where hyperscalers are colocating data centers w/ onsite gas gen, batteries and hybrid systems so you stop waiting on interconnection queue (aka red tape government) and start compressing the timeline from land to load. less appreciated point here is that this is way more than 'moar power'. after gpus/chips, the largest categories of both capex/opex in an data center are power and cooling systems. rack power has gone from 10kW to 100kW and growing. so the physics contraint here is every watt that goes in must come outas heat/and excess energy always dissipates through cooling (unless it fails/blowup).

every country set to tend its own garden. but tending a garden and exploiting it are becoming one in the same, and that mindset is exactly what makes china's acquaculture vision possible. like the growth on caviar alone is mind boggling. it is a quest to maximize yield everywhere, the ocean is just the current target.

imo distribution matters the most here.

Do we get a real wave of 'everything measurable becomes tradeable'?.

over the holidays i sat down and wrote a list of questions I actually want answered by the end of 2026. https://x.com/rsarrow/status/2009732163344781656?s=20

https://x.com/rsarrow/status/2084647085278728540?s=20

every ai infra model built off published hyperscaler capex now needs a normalization layer. Hyperscaler Capex | Source

i seem to have upset a bunch of yall with the reband.

our industry remains unbeaten...

i seem to have upset a bunch of yall with the rebrand. tbh ive been tired of taboo for while. when i reflect on my own life, the idea i keep coming back to is the second chance. not a clean start per say but a new start nonethless. that is what a provisional is. if you didnt know by now the term comes from golf. when you hit a shank a shot you think might be lost, you tee up another ball and hit again. think of it as an act of honesty with some silver lining optimism at the same time. so you take your 1 stroke penalty and keep playing. time and time again throughout my life ive done the backwards ass thing and fought to get the opportunity to hit a provisional. sounds wild but lifes built on these break points. so the name / logo are different but this still is the home for my non consensus takes. still covering crypto as the substrate for everything because new systems need new coordination primitives and capital formation, and crypto is the only tech that provides that natively. everything here is a provisional. another swing.