Teeka Tiwari

Market update:- "The current market landscape is characterized by significant volatility and a persistent trend towards increased Bitcoin dominance. This dynamic has created a challenging environment for investors, with limited opportunities for profitable trades and heightened risks. Historical data indicates that September has historically been a particularly volatile month in the cryptocurrency market, with a higher propensity for price corrections. Given the current market conditions, it's prudent to exercise caution and avoid making impulsive trading decisions. Until clearer market signals emerge, I recommend adopting a patient approach and closely monitoring key indicators such as trading volume, technical analysis patterns, and macroeconomic factors. By maintaining a disciplined approach and carefully managing risk, investors can position themselves to capitalize on potential opportunities when the market stabilizes." Therefore, have some patience till I get some bullish signals on my system.

The question for #Bitcoin is which side it will take. Primarily above $56K, the first resistance is $60-61K. If that breaks, we'll be next to the ATH and you can buy the dip if you're a trader. On the other hand, if CPI comes out in a bad manner, breaking $56K targets $48K.

Till we didn't get the confirmation, the bottom fear remain persists.The Iran - Israel controversy still round the corner which can lead the chaos in the market. We are very near but advisable to use strict stop loss in all the trades. Now I am waiting for the daily closing. Till then be safe and secure your positions.

Here is what I think the Fed is going to do: 1. At least a 0.5% rate cut (there is no other option). Possible 1.5% - This week (not next week). 2. A second cut in September of at least 0.5% even as high as 0.75% I've always wondered what will run the market upwards into the targets of 80k-100k! Here it is! There should be no fear; if you sold the top before the CME drop on my calls and buying lower, you gained extra cryptos. If you did not sell, Hold and try to introduce fresh cash into the market by adding to the coins you already hold. There is no way under the sun the current administration will want to lose the US election. Look for extreme money printing, even if they don't have to tell the world and do it behind closed doors. That's most likely what will happen anyway. Let's see and wait for the Fed meeting.

Last 30% correction happened in Jan 2021.

So finally, we have got the 30% dip which I am waiting for. We have already refrained our trades long back because our trade indicator constantly displayed bearish signal. Now I feel the bottom is in and soon we will get confirmation via our trade signal after the daily candle closes. Soon we will start our journey as usual. Remember in every 4 years cycle 30% BTC correction is inevitable. It's like the history repeats as seen on the above chart. News and impacts may be the causes but BTC structure moves like this only.

Bitcoin is looking for a higher low and support. It seems very likely that we’ll be looking at the $61-61.5K area. A slow grind upward is what I’m expecting for the markets in July. Bitcoin followed the path exactly. It made a higher low, found support at $60,000, and continued the momentum upwards. Seems we’ve bottomed out already.

The final one is the rate cut saga from the FED. Due to the Mt. Gox news, Bitcoin has trended down. However, as we’re looking at a case where the yields on the treasury bonds have been trending down, Bitcoin should normally be trending higher. However, due to the case that the yields are trending down, it’s very likely that we’ll be seeing Bitcoin reverse fast once the dust has been settled. More and more negative data is coming in on the economic strength in the U.S., through which the arguments for a reversal on crypto is on the horizon. It’s just a matter of time and then we’re going to be seeing a big influx coming into Bitcoin, Ethereum and the whole ecosystem.

The #Altcoin markets have been harsh the past weeks. We and our premiums have already stopped long trades way back ahead of market falls. Now we suspect we are in the good zone to start the trades again. And i found the btc dominance in its peak and will resist to come down slow and steadily. $ETH is covering many of the losses on the Altcoins, which will be regained soon. Staying entirely in my #Altcoin portfolio as my strategy for the coming period. They have been getting hammered for six months but will likely rotate back upwards. The weekly is massive, so I expect a big bull market for alts. Will the Ethereum ETF kickstart Altseason? The primary question of the markets is whether or not the strength of the #altcoins are coming back through the Ethereum ETF or that the altcoins are death. If you’d ask anyone, probably the latter is the conclusion as the downwards momentum keeps on going. And I’m all-in altcoins. Let’s dive into the reasons for potential changes in the upcoming period. First of all, I include Ethereum as my altcoin in my portfolio, which means that I’m not that much down since I went all-in in terms of BTC valuations. When we talk about the USD valuations, it hurts, but that’s not my core focus. The Ethereum ETF, the most underhyped and undervalued event of the year, but probably the most significant one. Why? If we go back in time, then the Bitcoin ETF was the big anticipated event of the year as the Bitcoin ETF applicants have been trying to get the ETF for multiple years. After the big win of Grayscale against the government, everything started to speed up significantly, through which the ETF got approved and trading went live. The Ethereum ETF is basically everything in reversal. Zero expectations, zero hype and if there is any expectation, then it seems like we’re having a negative estimation where investors expect the Ethereum ETF to go down to, potentially, areas of $2,000. I think that the inflow will be significantly less, although the impact on Ethereum can be significantly larger than the Bitcoin ETF in percentage-terms, as the stock-to-flow of Ethereum is less than that of Bitcoin due to the huge amount of staked Ether and the deflationary concept of Ethereum. It’s a giant, compliant settlement layer and the foundation of the Web 3.0 ecosystem. Given that the markets have been going into the approval of a few weeks ago with a super negative sentiment, as a matter of fact, it has marked the actual low on the pair between Ethereum and Bitcoin, and is up more than twenty percent since. The bull market has already started and can only accelerate even more if Ethereum is breaking through the area of 0.06 BTC. If that happens, we can expect a huge influx into the entire Ether ecosystem, which basically means that projects like Arbitrum and Optimism are reversing really soon as well. Why do I draw that conclusion? If Ethereum does well, then there’s automatically a higher beta to be achieved within the Ether ecosystem as there will be more usage within this ecosystem, driving more liquidity and developers towards it. From an investor perspective, this means that you’ll be able to look at a higher return on investment by investing into the ecosystem, as through the higher ETH/BTC goes, the more confidence will be coming back in the markets, the higher the actual assets will start to trend. There are two more arguments leaning towards this. The cycles are generally providing a case that we’re seeing a weak first half year of the altcoins, after which the cycle reverses and from June onwards, the momentum starts to become stronger towards altcoins and returns can be made. I’ve discussed this earlier, where Chainlink has been providing a return of more than 150% in 2022 and in 2023 in their BTC pairs from the low in May and June.

The Bitcoin dominance has likely peaked this cycle at 58%. The valuations of altcoins are super low compared to Bitcoin. Likely the next all-time high is going to be reached for Ethereum.

Bitcoin is consolidating, and it's within the range. Probably that consolidation will be taking place for a longer period and I suspect we might see $61-63K even. Rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum causing a longer sideways period. It's fine. Simply DCA.

Breaking : The spot $ETH ETF has been officially approved by the SEC An absolutely monumental moment for the crypto ecosystem that further expands institutional access to this new asset class You love to see it. Congratulations to all crypto lovers. It's indeed a big move.

The markets are waking up strongly. Bitcoin above $68,000, while Altcoins start to act as well. Slow upwards grind, that’s what we’re getting, but the low is likely in.

The day that FTX collapsed, a correction took place across the board and it marked the cycle low. You could arguably say the same about the current price action of Ethereum approaching the ETF. The markets are pricing in the worst à a denial and the clarification that Ethereum is a security. If that news comes out; it’s fully expected. It’s there. Now what? A setback, or not? This is the primarily reason that we’ve not been seeing a rotation back from Bitcoin to altcoins, as the sentiment surrounding altcoins is super negative at this point in time. It’s being fueled by negative news, while there’s also a lot of positive news taking place, which is simply not getting the spotlight at this point. After the strength of Bitcoin, the halving that took place and the slow unwind of the hype of the ETF (inflows were stalling at some point in April and the Dollar kept continuing its strength as Powell suggested that there won’t be any rate cuts for the entire year), it resulted into a rotation from Bitcoin towards cash. Not altcoins. However, we’re on the point that the rotation is actually taking place from cash and Bitcoin towards altcoins. This is the point in time, the worst is priced in, investors and speculators might start to see that there’s a huge opportunity cost in having altcoins rather than Bitcoin and that’s where the tables start to turn. Next weeks are going to be important, as it will give a significant intel on what Ethereum will be classified with from the standpoint of the SEC. I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as most people suggest it will be. Just like the ETF on Bitcoin wasn’t as positive as most people expected it to be in the short-term. From this aspect, the altcoin cycles haven’t adjusted. They are still here. Bitcoin did move first, but captured the momentum substantially due to the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF and the huge amount of influx coming into the ETF. That’s fine. From that point, you would expect that the rotation to altcoins was taking place. It didn’t. It’s delayed and it starts to happen. Once Ethereum starts to show momentum, it’s the time that altcoins are providing an even larger return. That’s the beta of the markets. Altcoins have a significantly large Beta in your investment thesis, that’s completely right, as they do have this on the downside as well. They have dropped by 70% in the past three months, Bitcoin is only down 10-15%. Part of the game. On the other hand, from October ’23 till January/February ’24 altcoins have been going up by, sometimes, even 1,000%. Incredible performance. At this point in time and the likely amount of adoption, hype and continuation, it might be expected that we’ll see the same returns in the next six months. Especially once Ethereum is going to be waking up from it’s sleep. Coming back to the title. Investments need to be made during the periods of the least certainty. Why? That’s where the highest amount of opportunity cost can be made. It’s always like that. If you feel super uncertain about buying a particular asset and the whole sentiment is like that, usually it’s the best period to do it. Remember the start of 2020 with COVID-19? Yes, that’s when nobody was thinking about Bitcoin and Bitcoin crashed to $3,700. It was the best moment of the past six years to be buying Bitcoin. Lowest confidence à highest chances. It’s the same for altcoins. The time is now.

Investing into Altcoins is the best thing to do. It might sound weird, but it’s the best thing to do currently. They have lost 70% in their value against Bitcoin in the past three months, updates are getting delayed and the sentiment is super bearish. Some altcoins are in a three year bear market. Still. What’s happening and why is it the best thing to do? In this longread I’ll be discussing my view on why they are suffering and what’s likely going to come next. The reason why they are suffering can be provided in multiple variables and segments. It’s focused on Bitcoin, it’s focused outside of crypto and it’s solely focused on Ethereum and the way liquidity moves through the markets. First of all, the altcoin cycle and different phases haven’t really changed. First, Bitcoin needs to move, then Ethereum needs to move and then the large caps, mid caps and small caps will follow suit. Technically, that didn’t change and that wasn’t different during this cycle either. During October 2023 – January 2024, the markets have been seeing a substantial uptick in the Bitcoin valuations of many of those altcoins, hand-in-hand with Bitcoin showing momentum due to the fact that the hype surrounding the ETF started to accelerate. However, this reversed entirely from the moment of the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF due to a simple reason. Hype. Crypto-native people have seen the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and saw the liquidity influx from traditional finance into Bitcoin. That’s where you could get the return! And yes, Bitcoin has ran from $40K to $73K in a matter of a few months, so that’s where the return was made for the most part, through which investors and speculators decided to swap their altcoins to Bitcoin to make a larger return in USD values. That’s the first reason of the current weakness of altcoins and why this strength didn’t continue. The altcoin cycles haven’t changed at all, it’s still here. Just slightly different. Secondly, Ethereum has been suffering entirely. The ETF isn’t looking very positive in a sense that the chances of an approval are simply not as positive as we expected it to be and likely, once it will be approved, there won’t be a significant influx either. However, Ethereum is a representative for the rest of the markets. If Ethereum isn’t classified as a security, it’s a kickstart for a large scope of projects to not be called one either. The start of the strength on the altcoin markets. The chances of the Ethereum ETF is close to zero. At this point in time, without information from the SEC on what they classify as a potential security. The upcoming events are important to keep an eye on: - Ethereum ETF approval/delay/denial on the 23rd/24th of May for 2 ETFs. Invesco, which had a deadline on May 7th, was delayed by 60 days. Not entirely a negative response, as they could have easily declined it. - Ethereum foundation court case, and information from the SEC on the Ethereum ETF applications on what’s the part that they think is a security or not. Is it the ICO at the start? Staking? Both? - FIT21 bill to be voted on in the House in the U.S. A bipartisan bill that has been worked on for multiple years and finally is getting a vote in the House, which should provide a regulatory framework for crypto. Voting is going to be in May / beginning June. - XRP lawsuit is going to be ending really soon, as the final deadlines for feedback have been provided and a conclusion needs to be drawn from this and the final sentence. It can flip both sides, but the markets are pricing in the worst case scenario at this point, where the markets are expecting a denial for the Ethereum ETF. That’s fully understandable. However, I’d like to make the comparison with the crash of FTX. In the months prior, markets haven’t been moving at all and where pushed downwards. Are you telling me that insiders didn’t know about the trouble within the FTX ecosystem? I bet they did and I bet they kept prices low.

Clearly, Bitcoin has held range low strongly at $60.5K. The breakout upwards took place, through which a calm, upwards period seems inevitable. This period is where I think Altcoins will start to accelerate, as confidence comes back into the markets.

Bitcoin is now at the range low. This is technically the area where you'd prefer to see it hold, so the upward momentum continues, and the range holds. If this doesn't hold, then we might expect $52-55K as a potential low on this correction. Waiting for the confirmation.

Breaking: CZ sentenced to 4 months in prison.

CZ is in the courtroom. The trial begins. This is rilli hard to see CZ facing such situation. After all he is one of the person who has contributed a major part during these all years of Binance Exchange.