🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

Cincinnati 🇺🇸 🇨🇴 Mejia @ 2.71 / +171 (bet105) - 0.75u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Walton just doesn’t strike me as a player who should be such a significant favorite at this level. He often gets involved in long, scrappy matches and simply doesn’t dominate his opponents often enough to justify this kind of favoritism. Although the Aussie is more accomplished at a higher level than Mejia, this still feels like a pretty coin-flippy encounter to me. The Colombian has built some momentum in recent weeks, and both players tend to get involved in lengthy matches and fluctuate quite a bit with their level. More often than not, this just doesn’t feel like a matchup where Walton will look like such a clear favorite on court.

Cincinnati 🇺🇸 🇭🇷 Cilic @ 2.07 / +107 (bet105) - 1u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Canada to Cincinnati isn’t the easiest turnaround, with the added slight altitude and historically quicker hard courts, and that’s exactly what Merida is dealing with here. Last week in Montreal was his breakthrough hard-court event, but I think it’s a tough ask to go straight to Cincinnati and maintain that same intensity in a different setting. The Spaniard had an evening finish on Tuesday, so he’s had a day or two at best to travel and acclimatize to the conditions in Cincinnati. Overall, this just feels like a spot where Merida’s level could dip after last week’s efforts. With Cincinnati also playing a bit quicker than what we saw in Canada, I don’t mind taking Cilic at plus money here.

Cincinnati 🇺🇸 🇦🇷 JM Cerundolo @ 2.0 / +100 (bet105) - 1u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Although JM Cerundolo is far from a threatening opponent on paper in decently paced conditions, and for a Challenger-level player like Lajal this looks like a decent draw, I still don’t mind the Argentine at these prices. Obviously, JMC is a natural clay-courter, but we’ve seen encouraging signs from him away from clay recently — winning a Challenger title on hard courts in Asia last season and reaching the quarterfinals on grass right before Wimbledon. More importantly, I like the Argentine’s solidity in this particular matchup against a powerful but inconsistent Estonian. Credit to Lajal for coming through qualifying, but he has already spent around five hours on court in Cincinnati and will now be playing for a third consecutive day. That’s not an ideal setup against someone who can drag you into lengthy rallies and make you work for every point, especially in Cincinnati’s brutal heat and humidity. Overall, I find it difficult to justify Lajal being as short here. He may have the more suitable game for the conditions, but given his volatility, recent workload, and the type of opponent he’s facing, can't have him this short.

Cincinnati 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 Duckworth @ 2.34 / +134 (Pinn) - 0.75u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Wolf has done plenty of winning over the last couple of weeks, so it’s understandable that the market has warmed up to him. However, neither the level of opposition nor the way he won those matches was dominant enough for me to justify such a significant upgrade. Overall, I just find it hard to power-rank Wolf that much higher than Duckworth. The Aussie has to be well respected at this level when he isn’t facing established tour regulars, and I simply don’t see enough of a quality gap between these two for Wolf to be such a clear favorite. For me, this should be much closer to a pick’em.

Cincinnati 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 Mannarino @ 2.27 / +127 (bet105) - 1u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Easy click for me with this one priced so wide. On one side, we have a very volatile player in Shapovalov, someone I generally dislike as a favorite nowadays. On the other, we have Mannarino, who on his day can make matches very tricky with his unorthodox style and is someone I often like backing as an underdog, because of his high upside. So it’s pretty simple math for me here. I don’t really understand the love for the Canadian, especially considering he hasn’t been fully fit or in rhythm for months now — rib issues to start the summer, then the left shoulder in the middle of it, and now add the ankle problems in recent weeks. Plus, conditions in Cincinnati have historically been on the quicker side, and those just haven’t been the conditions where Shapovalov has thrived in recent times. He prefers having a bit more time to unload on his shots rather than being rushed, while we know quicker conditions tend to suit Mannarino much better. All in all, I just can’t have Shapo as a clear favorite, given the circumstances against him today.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇫🇷 Fils @ 2.11 / +111 (bet105) - 0.75u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Jodar has been the main man over the last few weeks, but I think some value lies with the Frenchman tonight. Jodar was a 2.35 underdog when these two young stars met in Washington a few weeks ago, and today he’s already a marginal 1.80 favorite. For me, that swing is a bit too drastic. We also have to factor in the Spaniard’s intense recent schedule — this will be his 9th match in 13 days, so accumulated fatigue is becoming a legitimate concern. Meanwhile, Fils is slowly finding his rhythm again and should still have room for improvement given his talent and abilities. Overall, this feels like a decent spot to side with Fils, especially as an underdog. His level still seems to be trending upwards since his fitness issues, whereas with Jodar and his recent workload, I’m not sure there’s much room for his level to rise further — if anything, the risk is probably in the opposite direction. However, just 0.75u selection here, not something to go crazy about.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Shelton @ 1.84 / -119 (bet105) - 1u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Looks like a good price to back Shelton tonight, which isn’t something I say too often. Shelton hasn’t been the most reliable favorite throughout his career because of the serve-oriented nature of his game and how often he gets involved in close matches. Most of the time, I’ve found him overvalued and difficult to back at short prices. However, recently some of those tight matches that he used to win have started going the other way, and it feels like the market has cooled on him quite significantly. Especially in recent weeks, there have been matches where historically I would’ve expected Shelton to be priced much shorter, yet he wasn’t. He still wasn’t necessarily backable because of the nature of his game, but this market correction has now, in my eyes, created an opportunity tonight. Despite the lack of notable results in recent months, Shelton remains a huge threat at these big North American events. I also still have question marks over Fonseca outside of clay, particularly against big hitters who can rush him and prevent him from consistently dictating with his huge forehand. Overall, I have this one a bit wider than the market.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇫🇷 Atmane @ 2.77 / +178 (bet105) - 0.5u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Mensik started the year well, then peaked around Roland Garros, but outside of that stretch he has been fairly uninspiring—or at least not reliable enough to justify such a short price. Atmane is a streaky player, but when he finds his rhythm (usually does that in this environemnt) he is more than capable of matching top-level opponents and making these kinds of matches very competitive. I don’t mind taking a small stab on the Frenchman here, knowing that Mensik tends to be quite fluctuative and is heavily dependent on his first serve to separate from opponents.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇮🇹 Musetti @ 2.18 / +118 (bet105) - 0.75u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Although Jodar is a generational talent, this still feels like a tough spot for him. He had just one day between reaching the Washington final and starting his campaign in Montreal, and now has to play on back-to-back days after a nearly 2.5-hour battle yesterday. That’s a heavy workload for a young player. He did beat Musetti in three sets last week, but that came in the Italian’s first tournament back after a lengthy layoff. In general, I’d expect Musetti to trend upwards as he gets more matches under his belt, while the opposite could be true for Jodar given the demanding schedule he has faced over the past week.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇬🇧 Norrie @ 2.96 / +196 (bet105) - 0.5u Despite De Minaur being the more accomplished and higher-ranked player over the past few seasons, this has historically been a very close matchup, with plenty of long, 50/50ish rallies. On top of that, the Aussie has looked nowhere near his best in 2026, and I’m not convinced he should be priced this short in what has consistently been such a competitive head-to-head. Worth a small stab.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇳🇱 Griekspoor @ 6.04 / +504 (bet105) - 0.25u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ The odds look worthy of a donation here. After a very successful couple of months, Zverev has reached his peak in terms of market evaluation, and I just don’t see him justifying such a short price in this spot. He is still not Sinner, who deserves these kinds of odds. In recent years, he hasn’t played his best tennis here, often getting involved in close opening matches or suffering early exits. That’s quite normal for elite players during the first weeks of the North American swing, as most come off demanding Grand Slam runs, short summer breaks, and surface transitions. Secondly, Griekspoor is a streaky player. He has been quiet in recent months, but with him it often feels like a big result can come out of nowhere. He is exactly the type of player I like backing as an underdog because he has the ceiling to trouble the very best. Despite the heavily one-sided head-to-head (9-2), most of those matches have actually been very close, and the Dutchman has consistently managed to trouble Zverev. Overall, this just feels like a spot where Zverev won’t be at his best, and historically this hasn’t been a matchup where he has had an easy time. Happy to make a small donation.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇫🇷 Moutet @ 3.58 / +258 (bet105) - 0.5u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ One of those matches where Jodar could easily ride the momentum and cruise past Moutet in an hour, or where the young Spaniard feels the effects of a long week and comes out a bit flat. I’m happy to take a small stab on the latter at these odds as Jodar looked a bit worn down in the latter stages of his most recent match in Washington and has had just one day between tournaments. Historically, that kind of one-day turnaround tends to have an impact on a player’s first match at the next event. Given the circumstances, I think Moutet is worth a small shot, even though he is vastly underpowered in this matchup and can only rely on his ability to make as much balls as possible - that can work if Jodar isn't as sharp, given the above-mentioned circumstances.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo @ 2.35 / +135 (bet105) - 0.75u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ This feels like too much recency bias in the pricing. Michelsen has won eight of his last nine matches, while Cerundolo has been relatively quiet since lifting the title at Queen’s. That said, I don’t think the American’s "form" is enough to justify the current gap in the odds. For me, there really isn’t much separating these two. Happy to side with the underdog at these prices.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇦🇷 Etcheverry @ 2.50 / +150 (Pinn) - 0.75u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ I understand Borges has both the surface edge and the head-to-head advantage here (7–1 in sets, all meetings in 2026), but this price still feels too wide. These two naturally tend to get involved in long, physical matches, and stylistically I don’t think this is some sort of nightmare matchup for Etcheverry despite losing all three meetings this season. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this head-to-head starts to swing the other way. It’s also worth remembering that when they met in Auckland at the start of the season, this was essentially a pick’em match. I think Borges’ recent dominance over the Argentine is being weighted a bit too heavily by the market. Overall, I don’t see a significant gap between these two, which makes Etcheverry an appealing underdog at the current price.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇦🇷 Navone @ 2.43 / +143 (Pinn) - 0.75u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Vacherot understandably hasn’t looked at his best in his last few events back in Europe after returning from a foot injury, and this feels like another tricky spot for him. Not only is this his opening match of the North American hard-court swing—a transition that has caught out plenty of players arriving from Europe this week—but it’s also his first hard-court match in quite some time. It’ll be interesting to see how his foot responds to the change of surface. Overall, this doesn’t feel like a spot where Vacherot is likely to be at his sharpest. Navone’s ability to make a lot of balls and force opponents to play extra shots could expose any rust, much like he did against a visibly rusty Berrettini a few days ago. The underdog looks very live here, and I’m happy to back him at these odds.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Svajda @ 2.27 / +127 (bet105) - 0.75u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ I just don’t find Shapovalov reliable enough to back at these short prices given his “Russian roulette” style of tennis. It’s also worth mentioning that the Canadian has been surprisingly poor at home in recent years. He hasn’t won a match since 2021 and, even more remarkably, hasn’t won a single set during that stretch (0–8). Some players elevate their level in front of home fans, while others seem to tighten up under the added expectations. Since breaking through on tour, Shapovalov has often looked like the latter to me. Given those circumstances and his naturally high-variance game, I’m happy to take a punt on the underdog at these odds.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇭🇺 Fucsovics @ 2.01 / +101 (bet105) - 1u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ For me, getting a tour-level player at plus money against this version of Moutet is appealing. Overall, it’s hard to justify Moutet as a favorite when his game is so heavily reliant on opponents making mistakes, especially now that his own form—and a lot of the creativity and “wizardry” that makes him so dangerous—seems to have disappeared. At these prices, I’m happy to side against him.

Montreal 🇨🇦 🇦🇺 Hijikata @ 2.14 / +114 (bet105) - 1u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Munar has been quite uninspiring in recent months, and in general I’m not a fan of backing players whose success is built primarily on solidity, consistency, and physicality to justify favorite status. Hijikata is obviously a bit underpowered for tour level, but that may not be much of an issue against someone like Munar. The Aussie doesn’t mind physical rallies himself, and I don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed by the Spaniard’s style of play. Overall, Munar looks nowhere near his best at the moment, and this feels like a spot where he can be exposed. At these odds, I’m happy to take a shot on Hijikata.

Los Cabos 🇲🇽 🇭🇰 Wong @ 2.11 / +111 (bet105) - 1u LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️ Two very solid Challenger-level players. Gea probably has the more stable floor, while Wong possesses the higher ceiling and is capable of going on hotter streaks, his volatile nature seems to be clicking this week For me, this shouldn’t be anything other than a coin flip, especially considering Gea’s demanding route to the semifinals. He has spent almost 7.5 hours on court this week, and that physical workload could easily become a factor in these Los Cabos conditions. Overall, I think the underdog is the value side at these prices.