Devang Mehra, MSTA, CFTe

Current market conditions continue to keep a large section of investors on the sidelines, largely waiting for greater clarity before committing fresh capital. In my view, this phase is less about timing entry points and more about structuring participation. In the absence of high conviction directional clarity, a systematic allocation framework through SIPs allows for calibrated re-entry into equities while mitigating single-point deployment risk. For those who have been inactive or are holding excess cash, it may be worthwhile to revisit portfolio allocation from a medium-term perspective. I am in Mumbai over the next few days and available for in-person discussions for those who would like to review their allocation strategy.

When will FIIs come back to India? Equity prices do not move because Flls buy. Like most investors, Flls chase price. They usually do not create trends. This question should interest economists tracking India's Balance of Payments. India's capital account has recently slipped into deficit. The reasons are visible. Weak FDI inflows. FPI outflows. Large outward investments by Indians. Easy exits through IPOs, FPOs and OFS. Stretched equity valuations. A shaky macro backdrop. That is precisely why this may be a strong contra signal. What do foreign investors see today? More reasonable valuations. In some pockets, perhaps even cheap ones, especially in large, high quality, liquid listed firms. More important, the Indian Rupee is near one of its weakest REER levels in many years. And many of India's macro stresses now look near their peak. Which means they are more likely to be priced in than ignored. Historically, the biggest foreign inflows into India have come when valuations were cheap or at least reasonable. Not when optimism was highest. If there is a period after the COVID crash when FPI and FDI flows can begin to improve again, it looks to be around this zone.

For those who think FIIs are selling because Indian economy is exposed to Oil shock. FII Net flows in Year 2011 to 2014 (the period when Oil prices stayed over $100 for the longest time and India had the worst BOP shock) 2011: -$358 Million 2012: +$24.4 Billion 2013: +$20 Billion 2014: +$16 Billion

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/devang-mehra-msta-cfte-20a173331_at-a-time-when-market-narratives-are-dominated-activity-7450969994152120320-z0j5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAFN-6GoBTAb1LP_Tv6Kw3d1xwHMd-PJil_Q

50, 200 moving averages and previous running gaps offering stiff resistance.

Over the past ~18 months, our positioning has been clearly tilted towards fixed income/private credit (as most of you are well versed with with my repeated messages on the same and perhaps now you can understand the reasoning for the same as events have unfolded…

Jefferies exited its holdings in shares of private lender HDFC Bank, while trimming its India weightage In the latest Greed & Fear report, Chris Woods, cut exposure to the bank's stock from three key portfolios: Asia ex-Japan long-only equity portfolio, the global long-only equity portfolio, and the international long-only equity portfolio (ex-USA).

Goldman now expects the near-shutdown of flows through the Strait of ​Hormuz to extend into mid-April before normalizing over the following 30 ​days, with Brent crude oil prices to average $105 in March and $115 in April before falling ‌to $80 ⁠per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year. Analysts at the bank now see inflation in India rising to 4.6% in 2026 from their earlier expectation of 3.9%. While inflation will remain within the central bank's tolerance band of ​2-6%, Goldman expects ​a 50 basis ⁠point hike in the policy repo rate to counter pressures from a depreciating Indian currency

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/goldman-sachs-slashes-india-growth-forecast-warns-currency-strain-will-force-2026-03-24/

Over the past ~18 months, our positioning has been clearly tilted towards fixed income/private credit (as most of you are well versed with with my repeated messages on the same and perhaps now you can understand the reasoning for the same as events have unfolded the way that the have) allowing us to capture yields in the 12–13% range with limited volatility. With the recent correction in equities and improving risk-reward, we are now gradually beginning to rebalance, deploying accumulated cash flows and shifting incremental allocations towards equities in a staggered manner. This is not a call to time the bottom, but to start participating as valuations become more reasonable. If you’d like to align your portfolio with this shift or understand how to structure this transition effectively, feel free to reach out — happy to discuss specifics.

Many of you have been asking whether this dip is a buying opportunity, short answer: yes, but with the right strategy. Markets have corrected ~15% from recent highs amid global geopolitical uncertainty. While near-term volatility may persist, this phase is typically where long-term wealth creation opportunities begin to emerge. For those looking to allocate capital systematically, staggered investments into quality equity scrips/funds can help manage timing risk while participating in potential upside over the next cycle. I’m available today to discuss portfolio positioning, asset allocation, and suitable entry strategies based on your risk profile and time horizon. If you’d like to review your current investments or explore fresh allocations, feel free to message me directly.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DSFuNZHjEXz/?igsh=dW9lc2VtMm81YWx6

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DRHvvdVD4-h/?igsh=Zm9wemdxcG40Z3Rw

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DRCqnP3j-S7/?igsh=MTEycHJ4YTc4NnZqMg==

my broadcast channel on instagram, join quick for instant updates! https://www.instagram.com/channel/Aba2JacjUZ6POLxw/

1.1 billion dollar bet against Palantir and Nvidia https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQqrkw-DwoR/?igsh=ZnI2enRjdDFudHJy

I hope you are able to connect the dots with what has been discussed on Sunday and outcome in risk assets over last 2 days.

Have a good weekend!