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IRAN FLOATS PROLONGING WAR UNTIL TRUMP LEAVES Iran could prolong its war with the U.S. until Trump leaves office to impose costs and strengthen deterrence, senior IRGC adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi said. Naqdi claimed Iran is winning, while accusing Washington of lacking a clear strategy. He said the longer the conflict continues, the more Iran learns about fighting U.S. forces. Naqdi also claimed Iran is producing missiles faster than it is using them.

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🚨 U.S. CPI DAY: WALL STREET VS. THE MARKET 🏦Wall Street headline CPI forecasts: 🔸Kalshi: 3.30% 🔸Citi: 3.30% 🔸Goldman Sachs: 3.35% 🔸UBS: 3.39% 🔸BofA: 3.40% 🔸SocGen: 3.40% 🔸Barclays: 3.40% 🔸Morgan Stanley: 3.40% 🔸Wells Fargo: 3.40% A print above or below this narrow range could trigger a sharp market reaction.

TRUMP MEDIA SELLS EARLY ACCESS TO MARKET-MOVING POSTS Trump Media is reportedly charging trading firms up to $1.2 million annually for faster access to President Trump’s Truth Social posts. The service could carry significant market value: a recent Trump post canceling planned Iran strikes helped send WTI crude down roughly 5% in one session. The arrangement is drawing scrutiny over the advantage traders could gain from receiving potentially market-moving presidential announcements early.

BREAKING: Trump Signals Willingness to Walk Away From Iran War Without Nuclear Deal President Trump has reportedly told senior aides that he is willing to “walk away” from the Iran conflict without securing a nuclear agreement, provided that Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal. Key developments: The objective reportedly became more challenging yesterday, after Iran demanded its highest price yet for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is now reportedly seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region, and other concessions in exchange for reopening the crucial waterway. U.S. officials say Trump remains patient and is expected to ride out the latest developments as long as gasoline prices remain under control. Trump has reportedly told senior aides that he believes Iran is unlikely to be able to revive its nuclear program during his presidency. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are becoming increasingly complicated, with the Strait of Hormuz, economic concessions, U.S. military presence, and Iran’s nuclear program emerging as key points of contention. Markets will be watching closely, as any major development could trigger significant volatility across gold, oil, the dollar, and global markets.

WEAK JOBS REPORT TAKES EDGE OFF FED HIKE CASE July’s jobs report showed weaker hiring and downward revisions, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise rates in September. But unemployment fell to a two-year low as fewer Americans looked for work, leaving the picture mixed. For the Fed, inflation remains the bigger concern. Next week’s CPI report could prove decisive: softer inflation would support holding rates, while another strong reading could strengthen the case for a hike.

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The US economy unexpectedly loses -23,000 jobs in July, well below expectations of +85,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below expectations of 4.2%. June's jobs number was also revised down by -37,000 jobs. This marks the 3rd biggest monthly job loss since the pandemic in 2020.

NFP Data is positive for #gold prices

US JOBS DATA COULD MAKE OR BREAK SEPTEMBER FED RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS Bond traders are bracing for Friday’s US jobs report, with markets currently pricing in more than a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Economists expect the US economy to have added around 80,000 jobs in July. A stronger-than-expected report—particularly signs of rising wage pressures—could strengthen rate-hike expectations and push Treasury yields higher. Conversely, weaker employment data could reduce the likelihood of a September rate hike and ease pressure on yields. Next week’s US inflation data will provide another crucial signal as markets assess the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

TRUMP: FED RATE DECISION ISN’T JUST UP TO WARSH Asked whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh should refrain from raising interest rates ahead of the election, President Trump said: “It’s up to him to some extent, but not entirely. He has a board that is very political. The decision isn’t solely his—it’s up to the board as well. I think he’s great, and I won’t be criticizing him.”

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🚨 TRUMP’S IRAN STRIKE THREATS: A PATTERN OF ESCALATION — AND REVERSAL Over the past months, President Trump has repeatedly issued strong warnings of military action against Iran — only to delay or cancel planned strikes as diplomatic efforts gained momentum. 🔸 March 21: Threatened to “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened within 48 hours. 🔸 March 23: Delayed the strikes for five days, citing “productive conversations” with Tehran. 🔸 April 7: Warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” ➡️ Hours later: A two-week ceasefire was announced. 🔸 April 21: Said the U.S. could be “bombing” Iran if talks failed. ➡️ Later that day: The ceasefire was extended. 🔸 May 17: Warned: “The clock is ticking.” 🔸 May 18: Paused planned strikes following appeals from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. 🔸 June 11: Declared that the U.S. would hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT.” ➡️ Hours later: The operation was called off, with Trump saying a deal was near. 🔸 August 1: Declared that the U.S. was “locked and loaded.” ➡️ Later: The attack was called off as Washington pursued a potential deal with Tehran. 📌 The pattern is clear: Maximum pressure, escalating rhetoric, followed by a pause or diplomatic off-ramp.

Trump sets a new deadline, giving Iran until the end of today to finalize a Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman or face "devastating air strikes," per Bloomberg. Trump adds "I want to give them every last chance before decapitation... You'll find out today." The agreement with Oman however would not be something that Trump wants, a senior Iranian official tells Reuters it would grant Iran total sovereign authority over all inbound maritime traffic, and Oman would clear outbound vessels only after notifying Iranian officials, ensuring Iran retains visibility and the option to intervene.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent says a deal with Iran could be announced as soon as tomorrow. Bessent claims that the deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Dow futures extend gains to over +600 points on the day.

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IRAN DISMISSES TRUMP’S PUSH FOR TALKS Iran has signaled that it has no interest in resuming negotiations with the United States, despite President Trump’s remarks suggesting the possibility of a potential agreement. Tehran clarified that its current focus is on a separate shipping arrangement with Oman rather than reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also accused Washington of violating the memorandum reached in June, warning that no meaningful progress is likely as long as U.S. measures remain in place.

IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN OVER STRAIT OF HORMUZ ARE IN FINAL STAGES - IRNA

IRAN: NO HORMUZ REOPENING DEAL Iran says reports that it agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are false. A source cited by Fars News says no deal has been accepted. The report adds the strait will remain closed while the US continues what Iran calls "hostile actions." Ships may only pass via Iran's designated route and with permission from the IRGC Navy.