Kharitonov Crypto (EN)

BTC/USD continues to consolidate, with the pair approaching the lower bound of its current range near $62,500–$62,000, where buying interest may re-emerge on a dip. Nevertheless, although there are currently no objective reasons for it, a breakout below this support and a decline toward $61,500–$60,000 cannot be ruled out—though buying opportunities may also arise at those levels.

Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have resumed 📉 According to SoSoValue, institutional investors have returned to selling. Spot BTC ETFs registered a net outflow of funds, breaking the previous inflow streak.

Michael Saylor on MicroStrategy's Strategic Vision: The company aims to raise tens of billions of dollars (as part of a $42B+ plan) to purchase Bitcoin, ultimate targeting up to 7.5% of its total circulating supply. Explaining his logic, Saylor stated, "I buy that which is going to get exponentially more expensive," and projected BTC to reach $10,000,000 in the long run. A "strength of faith" like that would make even the Pope jealous))

Brutal crypto stats: 6 out of 10 top tokens die within 5 years, according to CryptoRank analysts. Maybe this is the real "altseason," just in a different flavour?))

The overall outlook for BTC remains neutral. Consolidation continues within the $62,300–$64,000 range. A break above resistance would open the way toward $65,000–$65,500. A loss of support would trigger a decline toward $61,000–$60,000, after which the range would shift lower and consolidation would likely continue. There are currently no clear fundamental catalysts for a breakout beyond the key levels, while downside risks remain.

Media outlets are linking the current Bitcoin drop to security concerns over cold wallets triggered by the Coldcard exploit. According to Santiment analysts, anxiety is growing across the market regarding the overall reliability of hardware storage. The root cause is a critical vulnerability in Coldcard's firmware, where a key generation bug made seed phrases predictable rather than unique. Exploiting this flaw, attackers have begun draining funds even from long-dormant addresses.

Today, financial markets are focused on the FED's interest rate decision. However, I would not expect any major surprises. Despite persistent inflation risks linked to tensions in the Middle East and the potential for higher oil prices, there is still insufficient justification for a change in the current monetary policy stance. If inflationary pressures do intensify, they are more likely to eliminate the possibility of a rate cut than increase the likelihood of one. At the same time, the recent decline in oil prices and the absence of a meaningful acceleration in inflation do not provide a compelling case for a rate hike either. As a result, the most likely outcome is that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged, broadly in line with market expectations. If the decision matches the consensus forecast, it is unlikely to trigger a significant spike in market volatility on its own. Investors will therefore turn their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. However, Warsh has already indicated that the Fed intends to scale back public guidance and avoid offering detailed signals about its future policy path. That approach reduces the likelihood that today's remarks will provide clear direction on future interest rate decisions or become a catalyst for major market moves. Some observers have already drawn comparisons between Warsh and former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, whose carefully worded and often ambiguous remarks nevertheless had the power to move global markets. However, today's financial markets are very different, and the sharp bouts of volatility that once accompanied Fed meetings and press conferences have become far less common. Unless the Federal Reserve delivers an unexpected policy surprise or Warsh adopts a significantly more hawkish or dovish tone than anticipated, the current market trends are likely to remain intact. The U.S. dollar is expected to retain its moderate strength, equity markets will probably continue to follow their prevailing trends, and precious metals, which remain under pressure, are unlikely to receive a sufficiently strong catalyst for a sustained recovery.

BTC ETFs are back in the negative: inflows quickly turned into outflows, according to SoSoValue. No stability whatsoever)

BTC. BlackRock’s CEO notes that the bulk of leveraged capital has already been “washed out” of the market, so he is extremely optimistic about cryptocurrencies over the next 12 months. I can’t say that everything looks overly bullish at the moment, but given the situation in the Middle East, there is still some reason for cautious optimism among Bitcoin bulls.

BTC’s inability to even test 65K indicates persisting downside risks toward the 61–59K area, while at the same time there are no objective reasons for a larger-scale drop at the moment.

Bitcoin loses trust? Bitcoin is still holding its current lows, and spot BTC ETF outflows have slowed on some days. But the overall picture remains worrying: pressure is coming not only from price below $60,000, but also from weakening trust in major public crypto players. Strategy and Michael Saylor spent years promoting the idea of long-term BTC holding. That is why even possible or limited sales for dollar liquidity, dividends, and corporate needs are painful for the market. The “never sell” narrative already looks weaker. For BlackRock, pressure is coming from clients through the ETF. IBIT remains the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, but periods of outflows and BTC movements through Coinbase custody infrastructure show that some investors are reducing exposure. If ETFs turn from a source of steady demand into a redemption channel, this increases pressure on the market. Trust is also damaged by tokens actively promoted by famous figures, then quickly losing interest and liquidity. Stories around Arthur Hayes, Trump-linked tokens, Elon Musk, Saylor, and other public market players remind investors that not every pump is an investment idea. This is not a rejection of crypto. Bitcoin may still remain a strong long-term idea. But right now, the market requires caution: constant pumps, sharp reversals, dependence on personal brands, and ETF pressure make any BTC rally fragile until price returns above key resistance levels.

🙊 The market valuation of Strategy has fallen below the value of the Bitcoin held on its balance sheet...

BitMine's unrealized loss on ETH purchases has exceeded $10,500,000,000... Ouch...

The performance of Stragedy (MSTR) shares hardly supports the “smart money” theory or the success of companies whose strategy is to accumulate crypto/BTC on their balance sheet.

BTC

Thoughts on BTC's current growth

According to Michael Saylor, Ethereum is facing a decline in investor confidence due to the strengthening positions of competing networks, including Solana and BNB. Sounds like crypto tribal warfare, doesn't it?)

MTracer was right again — BTC’s decline has slowed, and at this stage the cryptocurrency is consolidating after the rebound. However, below 64K, the risk of breaking the current lows and continuing to fall will remain.

The situation on MTracer is becoming more neutral — the downward impulse may be fading. But a convincing break above 60K... I don’t even want to think about it)