Michael's Charts

So when you guys do see the bullish signals that we've talked about plenty of times, it's up to you guys to not hope that we're going to be hitting some magic huge high. It's up to you to be more practical and say, hey, we have a lot of bearish momentum. Therefore, maybe I should look at levels of resistance, Fibonacci levels of resistance, order blocks, and that type of thing to say, hey, we're hitting a level that looks rough. Maybe I don't want to sell everything, but maybe I'll sell 25% to 50% by scaling out and then waiting to see what happens next. That can really protect you right now and make it so even though a lot of people aren't making profit in the market because they're going all willy-nilly, you are still able to make some money, even if it's small because some of these trades aren't going to be the big 20%, 30%, 40% Bitcoin moves. But that being said, if you guys know where Bitcoin's going, you do know where altcoins are going to. You add a 5x leverage onto a theme or 5x leverage on the whiff or something like that, and just have a typical 10x leverage on Bitcoin, I think you guys are going to be just fine. But please have those stop losses because they really do help you guys out a lot. Thanks.

But they seem to be working. Right now, however, you're seeing a little bit of a crossover about to happen between the RSI and the Stochastic. The MACD is still holding up OK for right now, but we're about to have 2 out of 3 turn bearish, which means we may turn choppy for a few more days before trying to have another big boost that can take us above that level of resistance and start heading back up towards $100,000. This is going to be very hard to do. I'd be surprised if it happened next week, but possibly the week after could be it. I'll have to get back to you guys to see when we have some CPI data coming out. I think that could be a good help, plus having some jobs data coming in as well. But to bring everything together, guys, right now, we're in a choppy, choppy market where only short-term trading is really yielding any good profit, I would say, especially with leverage.

So I would say this is actually the most fun part at this specific moment in time, because if you guys were on my personal stream a few days ago, we had talked about selling at that level of resistance. And you can see we barely hit it for maybe two days. And then we just started to dump today, which is really, really rough. But I will say, so far, when the daily momentum is shifting, it gives you a few days of good movements. And you can see within those few days of good movement, there's a lot of volatility, which is why you need to have your stop losses and such.

But for right now, if you're looking at this, you see we have a heavy level of resistance where we're getting rejected right now. Not the end of the world. We just have to wait to see if momentum is getting larger before we start buying. And the crazy thing that's going to suck for most of you guys is here, if you guys didn't buy last week when we were talking about the daily momentum shifting for a short-term trade, you might be wanting to buy this at the level of resistance if it decides to go up a little bit more and test that resistance level. Basically, that upper red box, you may notice that you buy right there. And then because the monthly charts are still bearish, Bitcoin still comes down and you just get pissed off about it. So just understand it's a little bit of a higher risk trade type of environment, but still worth the trade as long as you guys can manage your risk, which is going to be very crucial over the next few weeks here.

Now, the weekly chart is where I start to see a little bit of hope for Bitcoin. Of course, we just talked about the monthly charts and how those are bearish, but we're seeing a little bit of goodness from weekly charts. And right now, you're seeing that the Stochastic is now bullish, but the RSI and MACD are not, not, not bullish at this point in time. So there's hope that if over the next one or two weeks, we start to see the RSI turn bullish along with the Stochastic, and at least one of those hitting below the 50 lines on those oscillators, respectively, I think we could see us try to get back up towards $100,000 or up until the 50-week moving average. From there, we'll most likely continue to fall back down unless something changes. But because the world is so crazy right now, there's always hope because Venezuela is going chaotic, Europe is kind of letting America do what it wants, plus a whole bunch of other crazy fun stuff. But Bitcoin seemed to like the move this past week, which I think overall is pretty good. So let's continue to watch the weekly charts and see if we can have some bullishness appear. But I don't feel like it's worth going gung-ho and doing like weekly holds where you're holding for more than like a week or two, mostly holding more than a week, to be honest, unless you're buying at a support level and kind of riding the wave, which we just did a few days ago, if you guys recall.

Hey, everyone. Like I said before, I have a cold, so I'm sorry about not being able to stream today. But I did want to give you guys an update about what's happening with Bitcoin and everything going on because it is quite important because we are seeing some small shifts. Not meaningful just yet, but it can be meaningful starting next week, all right? So first, I want you guys to check out the monthly chart right here. This is the most concerning thing that we still have to worry about. We're still seeing that the MACD, the Stochastic, and the RSI are all bearish right now. So we have a lot of bearish momentum pushing us down. So any large moves you guys see from Bitcoin, they most likely will be traps. It doesn't mean you guys can't trade them. It just means that you guys aren't going to be holding for weeks and weeks and weeks like you might have during the bull market. Instead, you may only be holding for up to a week, maybe four or five days, maybe even just a couple of days.

On the daily I see the MACD, STOCH, and RSI all good to go. High risk trade but worth watching if you have the time. The 50 day will either be a brick wall or part of a larger weekly trend that keeps up stable for a few more weeks. Unfortunately the monthly charts are still bad so short term swings only but during those swings day trades are so much easier to trade.

Weekly momentum is still rough but we could have a great short term pop breaking above the 20 day ma before christmas

https://youtu.be/6rm66WaXz1g

New Smart Money Guide. Not an indicator tutorial this time but understanding what each thing means like a CHOCH or BOS or FVG. Hope you all enjoy.

Bottom line Weak job growth, new tariff threats, and political drama at the statistics office have created a rare cocktail of uncertainty. In the short run, that means sharp price swings, whipsaw moves, and plenty of nerves. In the bigger picture, all three forces push the Fed closer to cutting rates, soften the dollar’s outlook, and highlight why transparent, decentralized assets matter. Crypto feeds on cheap money and mistrust of centralized control. The stage is set. Stay patient, stay educated, and be ready to move when policy finally flips the switch.

6. Quick glossary for new investors • FOMC – The Federal Open Market Committee, the twelve-member body at the Fed that sets interest rates. • Rate Cut – A decision by the Fed to lower its target interest rate, making loans cheaper and encouraging spending. • Liquidity – How easily money flows through the financial system. More liquidity typically lifts asset prices. • Altcoin – Any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin. Examples include Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano. • Recession – A significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, usually visible in GDP, income, and jobs data. • Yield Curve – A graph showing interest rates across different loan lengths. An inverted curve can signal a coming slowdown. • Risk-On Asset – An investment that tends to rise when investors feel confident, such as tech stocks or crypto. • Hawkish vs. Dovish – Fed members who prefer higher rates to fight inflation are called hawkish; those who favor lower rates to boost growth are dovish.

5. What it means for crypto Near-term volatility • Bitcoin fell sharply right after the Fed meeting, more from nerves than fundamentals. Fear-of-missing-out buyers got washed out. Expect more choppy moves while traders digest jobs, tariffs, and Fed chatter. • Altcoins are smaller and often less liquid, so their prices can swing even more when uncertainty spikes. Path to rate cuts • Weak hiring plus tariff uncertainty equals extra pressure on the Fed to cut. Lower rates historically push cash toward higher-risk assets. Crypto is near the top of that risk ladder. • If the September cut arrives, it could open the floodgates for institutional investors who have been waiting for clear policy direction. Dollar effect • Tariffs can hurt US export competitiveness and slow capital inflows, softening the dollar. A weaker dollar often coincides with stronger crypto prices because Bitcoin is priced globally in multiple currencies. • Some investors treat Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement. If they expect the dollar to fade, they allocate more to digital assets. Data trust • Political interference at the BLS may push some investors to seek alternative data sources. Blockchains, with their open audit trails, stand out as transparent systems where every transaction is recorded permanently. • This narrative can pull a new wave of retail investors into crypto, believing it offers truth in a world where official numbers feel suspect.

3. Firing the statistics chief What happened • After the disappointing jobs data, President Trump dismissed the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), claiming the numbers were inaccurate or politically motivated. • The BLS is historically nonpartisan and follows strict methodologies. Firing its leader shakes confidence in the independence of US economic data. • Agencies like the BLS use complex surveys and statistical models. These methods are not flawless, but they are transparent and peer-reviewed. Why it matters • Financial markets rely on credible data. If traders think numbers are manipulated, they may demand higher returns to cover that added uncertainty. • Lack of trust in official data can drive investors toward assets viewed as transparent and decentralized, such as Bitcoin. Blockchains record every transaction publicly, making them hard to falsify. • Long term, shaking up statistical agencies could prompt rating agencies to question the reliability of US economic reporting, which might increase funding costs for the government. Key terms for beginners • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is part of the Department of Labor. It publishes reports on employment, wages, and inflation. • Data Integrity means the information is accurate, consistent, and protected from manipulation. 4. The Fed split Background • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met earlier in the week. Chair Jerome Powell held rates steady, which everyone expected. • In a surprise twist, two sitting Fed governors publicly stated they favored an immediate rate cut. Public dissent at this level is rare because Fed officials try to present a united front. • Futures markets that bet on interest-rate moves quickly priced in a much higher chance of a September cut, jumping from around fifty percent to more than eighty percent. Impact • When the Fed lowers rates, borrowing money becomes cheaper for businesses and consumers. Cheaper borrowing can raise stock prices and, historically, crypto prices. • If dissent grows inside the Fed, Powell may be forced to follow the majority. Markets tend to move early on that expectation, so prices can rally even before a cut actually happens. • For Bitcoin, the more liquidity in the system, the easier it is for fresh capital to pile in. Crypto thrives on both liquidity and investor appetite for growth. Key terms for beginners • Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. It sets the tone for all other US interest rates. • Dot Plot is an anonymized chart the Fed publishes showing each policymaker’s projection for future interest rates. Large divergences signal disagreement.

the past two days have been a perfect crash course in how politics, economics, and market psychology collide. If you are brand-new to investing, pay close attention. We just witnessed a chain reaction that can teach you more than any textbook chapter. Below is a deep dive that doubles the detail of the earlier summary while keeping the same clear format. Use it to understand why Bitcoin and altcoins move the way they do when big macro headlines hit. 1. The jobs report What happened • The economy added only seventy-three thousand jobs in July, far below the two-hundred-thousand range economists were expecting. • On top of that, May and June job gains were revised down by a combined quarter-million. Revisions matter because they correct the initial, sometimes overly optimistic estimates. • Average hours worked per week ticked lower. When employers cut hours before cutting workers, it can be an early sign that demand is softening. Why it matters • The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: keep prices stable and keep employment strong. Weak hiring tells the Fed that the job market is losing steam. • If people are worried about finding work, they spend less. Lower spending can slow the entire economy. • A weaker economy usually pushes the Fed toward lowering interest rates to stimulate growth. Key terms for beginners • Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) counts jobs in goods, construction, and services, but excludes farm workers and a few specialized categories. • Labor Force Participation Rate measures how many working-age people are working or actively looking. If participation falls, it can disguise weakness because fewer people are counted as unemployed. 2. Tariff news What happened • President Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs on a long list of imported goods, set to begin next week. • Tariffs start at a baseline rate but can escalate if negotiations stall. This threat-and-escalate model has been a signature of Trump’s trade strategy. • Early chatter suggests the European Union is racing to negotiate before the clock runs out. Why it matters • Tariffs raise the cost of imported materials and finished products. Higher costs can reduce profit margins for companies or raise prices for consumers. • If companies expect tariffs to last, they may delay hiring, investment, or new projects until they see how bad the damage is. That can reinforce the slowdown signaled by the jobs numbers. • Tariffs can also weaken the US dollar. When the dollar loses value, Bitcoin and other borderless assets often gain appeal because they are priced in multiple currencies worldwide. Key terms for beginners • Trade Balance is the difference between exports and imports. A big shift toward more imports than exports can drag on economic growth. • Supply Chain is the network of suppliers and logistics that deliver raw materials and products. Tariffs can disrupt these networks, creating shortages or delays.

Next week is going to be wild for crypto. The Federal Reserve is meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and the market already knows they are not cutting rates. That decision is pretty much locked in. But that is not the real story. The real story is the split happening inside the Fed right now. Two governors have come out in the last few days saying they support a rate cut now. That almost never happens this close to a meeting unless there is serious disagreement behind closed doors. It shows that Powell is losing his grip on the committee. He wants to hold steady and wait for more data. But other members are done waiting. They are ready to move. This kind of internal divide does not usually hit the headlines, but it matters a lot for crypto. Because if even one of those governors dissents at the meeting or if Powell softens his tone during the press conference, the market will take that as a sign that cuts are coming in September. And crypto reacts fast to that kind of shift. Bitcoin has already been pulling back a little ahead of the meeting. That is normal when traders expect no action. But if anything changes in the language or the tone from the Fed, prices could swing hard in either direction. This is what volatility looks like and it is a setup for serious money if you are paying attention. So here is what to watch. If the Fed holds rates and the message is tight and controlled, we probably see more sideways action or a short‑term dip. But if there is even a small crack in the message, if one governor pushes for a cut or if Powell hints that they are getting close to pivoting, Bitcoin could rip fast. And altcoins will follow. This is not the week to sit back. This is the kind of moment that shakes out the lazy money and rewards the people who are locked in. Pay attention to the statement. Watch the press conference. And be ready for whatever comes after. Volatility is the setup. Profits come from knowing how to move through it.

Now let’s move to the daily charts. This is where things get a bit more bearish in the short term. You all know the drill — when Bitcoin is hovering around the 20 and 50 simple moving averages, we tend to get big moves. Those areas either flush weak hands or create enough FOMO to send us higher. Right now, I think we break down before we get back above the 50-day SMA. That would send us toward that 100,000 support I just mentioned. And if we hold that level, I think we consolidate inside this descending triangle for a bit longer — assuming the war doesn’t spiral out of control. If things escalate and the U.S. does jump in, the next big support zone is the order block around 95,000. If we drop there, I’ll be loading up again on both altcoins and Bitcoin. No hesitation. We’ll know within the next 48 hours if America’s getting involved. Until then, swing trading is high risk, but day trading could be really solid — just make sure your stop losses are locked in. It’s a fast-moving market and you don’t want to get caught off guard. Stay sharp, trade smart, and be ready. This week’s going to be wild.

Hey everyone, hope you’re having a solid day. Bitcoin actually looks like it's in decent shape right now — but that’s mostly because of the growing chance that the U.S. could get involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. I know a lot of people are only thinking about the short-term impact on crypto, but this situation is way bigger than just the next candle. We’ll get into that in a minute. Let’s start with the weekly charts. Weekly momentum is clearly falling, and the dreams of hitting all-time highs this month are fading fast. We’ve got a new upward trendline forming, but breaking through it will be tough unless some major news shakes things up. Realistically, our best shot at that kind of move is during this week’s FOMC meeting. Unlikely — but not impossible. I’m watching that key support level around 100,372. If we hold there, I’d feel a lot more confident about opening a swing long with some decent leverage.

Crazy Day and new thumbnail designs https://youtu.be/celY1qBsJGQ