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Toxic (2026) is now available! Set in a bygone era, this gripping tale unfolds in the coastal paradise of Goa, where a powerful drug cartel pulls the strings behind a facade of sun-soaked beaches and vibrant culture. 🌍 Country Origin: #India 🎭 Genres: #Action, #Crime, #Drama

The world's largest oil companies are now holding a record cash pile: The top 5 international oil companies generated almost ~$70 billion in free cash flow in Q2 2026, the largest amount on record. This includes ExxonMobil, $XOM, Chevron, $CVX, Shell, $SHEL, TotalEnergies, $TTE, and BP, $BP. This marks a +600% quarter-over-quarter increase. By comparison, the previous peak of ~$60 billion was set in Q2 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, combined net income across the group jumped +160% YoY last quarter, to $47 billion, the 3rd-largest on record. Oil companies are building unprecedented cash piles amid the Iran War.

The quality of US job openings data is deteriorating: Only roughly 1 in 4 businesses approached by the BLS now agree to participate in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), near the lowest since 2022. By comparison, before the 2020 pandemic, the so-called initiation rate oscillated between 50% and 70%. Meanwhile, the first closing response rate, measuring firms that provide data in time for the initial JOLTS estimate, stands at just ~30%, near the lowest proportion on record. This percentage has halved over the last 10 years. Similarly, the second closing response rate is ~35%, also near the lowest on record. The BLS therefore releases job openings data based on a historically small fraction of responses, before revising the figures as additional responses come in. Official US labor market data is becoming increasingly unreliable.

The memory trade is dominating the newest leveraged ETF launches: Assets under management (AUM) in the 2x leveraged long SanDisk ETF, $SNXX, have grown +$1.5 billion since its January 27th launch, the largest increase of any US-listed leveraged ETF launched this year. This is followed by the 2x leveraged long memory ETF, $RAM, with its AUM growing +$500 million since its June 24th debut. By comparison, AUM in the 2x leveraged long ETFs tracking Applied Optoelectronics, $AAOI, AXT, $AXTI, and Lumentum, $LITE, has grown by less than +$400 million for each ETF since launch. Overall, $SNXX has seen more AUM growth than the next 4 largest US leveraged ETF launches combined. Investor appetite for leveraged exposure to memory-chip stocks is surging.

Inflation expectations are easing among Americans: US consumers' median inflation expectations over the next 12 months fell to ~4.5% in July, near the lowest since Q1 2025. This follows a brief spike to ~5.2% in March, the highest level since August 2025. At the same time, average inflation expectations declined to ~5.5%, down from 6.2% recorded in March. Both measures are now ~1.5 percentage points below their peaks posted in April 2025, following the "Liberation Day" tariffs. Despite this improvement, 61.3% of consumers still expect interest rates to rise over the next 12 months, unchanged from June. The battle against inflation continues.

Nvidia is dominating retail investor demand across the Magnificent 7: Retail investors have bought +$27 billion worth of Nvidia, $NVDA, stock over the last year, the most among all Magnificent 7 companies. Since October 2025, these purchases have more than quadrupled. Tesla, $TSLA, ranked 2nd, with +$15 billion in retail purchases over the last year. Over the same period, retail investors bought +$9 billion worth of Microsoft, $MSFT, stock. On the other hand, Apple, $AAPL, recorded -$5 billion in retail sales over the last year, the only Magnificent 7 company that retail investors sold. For retail investors, Nvidia remains the ultimate AI trade.

The ETF industry is experiencing an unprecedented boom. ~900 new ETFs have been launched in the US year-to-date, on track for the strongest year on record. At the current pace, ~1,470 new ETFs are expected to launch in 2026, surpassing the ~1,050 all-time high set in 2025. Meanwhile, leveraged ETFs now account for ~300 of the new launches year-to-date, or ~33% of the total. By comparison, 200 leveraged ETFs were launched in full-year 2025, compared to fewer than 50 in 2024. Overall, more than 50% of all ETFs launched so far in 2026 are using derivatives. Surging investor risk appetite has led to a record number of ETF launches.

Serious consumer delinquencies remain historically elevated in the US: Student loan serious delinquencies rose +0.3 percentage points in Q2 2026, to 10.6%, the highest since Q1 2020. This marks the 3rd consecutive quarterly increase, totaling +1.2 percentage points. Credit card 90+ day delinquencies now stand at 12.9%, the 2nd-highest level since Q1 2011. By comparison, credit card delinquencies peaked at 13.7% in Q2 2010, in the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis. Meanwhile, auto loan 90+ day delinquencies now stand at 5.5%, the 2nd-highest on record, surpassing the Q4 2010 high by 0.2 percentage points. US consumers are struggling to keep up with their debt payments.

The copper market is facing a severe supply squeeze: The LME’s front-month copper spread surged to a $370 per ton premium on Friday, the widest one-month spread since the 2021 supply squeeze. This means traders are paying a historic premium for copper available in the near term versus delivery a month later, signaling that physical supply is extremely tight. At the same time, the widely followed cash-to-three-month spread rose to $434 per ton, also the highest since 2021, prompting the LME to tighten its market controls. This comes as LME copper stockpiles have fallen for 42 consecutive days, the longest streak since 2014, to 204,975 tons, with nearly half of the remaining metal already scheduled for withdrawal. All while traders and producers are redirecting copper to the US, where expectations of tariffs on refined copper are pushing prices above LME levels and creating arbitrage opportunities. The supply crunch in the copper market is far from over.

Shocking stat of the day: Nvidia, $NVDA, has added over +10 percentage points to the S&P 500’s +84% total return over the last 5 years, more than any other stock by a wide margin. This represents ~12% of the S&P 500’s entire 5-year gain. This is also more than double Apple’s, $AAPL, +5 percentage point contribution. Microsoft, $MSFT, Broadcom, $AVGO, and Alphabet, $GOOGL, follow, adding ~3, ~3, and ~2 percentage points, respectively. Together, these 5 stocks account for ~25 percentage points, or ~30% of the S&P 500’s total 5-year return. A handful of mega-cap stocks are driving the entire market.

Investors are pulling capital out of energy funds at a rapid pace: US energy sector ETFs have posted -$4.0 billion in outflows over the 65 trading days ending Monday, the largest such outflow since mid-2025. This marks a sharp reversal from the record +$12.5 billion in inflows seen in March. By comparison, the 2025 peak outflow was -$5.5 billion, while the 2023 record was -$7.5 billion. Meanwhile, the energy sector ETF, $XLE, has posted -$797 million in outflows so far in August, putting it on track for the largest monthly withdrawal since April 2025. That would also mark its 5th consecutive monthly outflow. Investor appetite for energy exposure is fading rapidly.

The long US Dollar trade is crowded. Long speculative positioning in the US Dollar is up to +$48 billion, the highest since 2015. This represents positions taken by hedge funds and asset managers based on directional market views rather than underlying hedging needs. Bullish positioning has more than QUADRUPLED over the last 3 months. As a result, long bets are now more than 2 standard deviations above the average since 2012. Professional investors are on track for a 6th consecutive month of long US Dollar exposure, the longest streak since 2022. Market participants are betting heavily on the US Dollar.

BREAKING: Jane Street posted a $15 billion loss in July amid the collapse of Situational Awareness, per FT. The firm disclosed the loss to lenders as part of a deal to shift its $11 billion public debt pile to private investors.

BREAKING: The Index of US Financial Conditions is up to ~1.29 points, the easiest since 1997. This index measures access to money across financial markets, incorporating things like interest rates, credit spreads, stock prices, the dollar, and overall borrowing conditions. By comparison, during the March 2026 market selloff, the index was on the verge of turning negative. Not even during the 2021 meme stock frenzy were financial conditions this easy. The latest surge has been driven by equity markets hitting all-time highs, with US corporate bond credit spreads remaining near their tightest levels since 1998. AI has transformed the global economy.

BREAKING: President Trump's capital gains tax cut discussions include "indexing" capital gains for inflation BEFORE taxes are calculated. This would mean that taxes would be applied on gains adjusted for inflation. For example, if you purchased a stock for $100,000 and sold it 5 years later for $200,000. Under the current system, you would owe capital gains taxes on the full $100,000 gain. But, if cumulative inflation over those 5 years was 20%, your inflation-adjusted cost basis would rise to $120,000. This means you would only owe capital gains taxes on the $80,000 REAL gain, rather than the $100,000 nominal gain. Trump has also suggested exemptions for sales of homes worth $2 million or less from capital gains taxes. We expect more details soon.

US consumers are extremely bullish on stocks: The perceived probability among US consumers that US stock prices will be higher 1-year from now increased +0.5 percentage points in July, to 41.4%, the highest since April 2021. Since March, this percentage has risen +5.1 points, marking the 2nd-highest reading since the 2020 pandemic. By comparison, the April 2020 peak was 51.8%. By age, consumers under 40 are the most optimistic, at 42.0%, the 2nd-highest since September 2024. This is followed by the 40-59 age group, at 41.5%, the highest since January 2025, and consumers over 59, at 41.1%, the highest since September 2025. Bullish sentiment is spreading across all consumer age groups.

BREAKING: Tesla stock, $TSLA, extends gains to over +3% on the day on reports that the company is nearing the unveiling of a “flying” Roadster.