QCP Broadcast

QCP Market Colour, 14 August 2026 BTC has moved back towards 63k, returning to the lower end of its recent range despite a softer US inflation backdrop. July CPI eased to 3.4% YoY, core inflation moderated to 2.5%, and PPI was flat on the month — but crypto's response has remained muted. That leaves the theme from last week largely intact: resilience without momentum. BTC has continued to absorb a weaker labour market, geopolitical uncertainty and changing corporate treasury flows without a sustained breakdown, but supportive macro data have yet to produce lasting follow-through. Policy is also moving on two tracks. The CLARITY Act has been pushed beyond the August recess, while the SEC and US banking regulators continue to develop frameworks around crypto capital raising and tokenized securities. Meanwhile, Strategy disclosed another 1,690 BTC sale last week, reinforcing that corporate treasury flows can now move in both directions depending on balance-sheet conditions. Hormuz remains another source of macro uncertainty, with Brent back around $88 as negotiations continue without a durable reopening of the strait. For now, BTC remains rangebound rather than broken. The question is whether softer inflation and greater policy clarity can eventually translate into stronger demand, or whether constrained liquidity keeps momentum limited. Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 12 August 2026 The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price. Markets still assign a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21%—a 19-year high. The disconnect between policy expectations and long-end yields is keeping the rates outlook unsettled. That uncertainty extends to FX. After the yen weakened beyond ¥163 per dollar, Japan’s estimated ¥8.45tn intervention pushed USD/JPY back towards ¥157. The US joined a day later with an estimated $5–10bn operation—the first joint US–Japan yen-buying intervention since 1998—reinforcing that policymakers are prepared to act again. When central banks stop guiding and start intervening, which policy signal should markets trust?

QCP Market Colour, 7 August 2026 BTC has recovered from around 62.5k at the start of the week to trade back near 64k. The move stands out less for its momentum than for what the market has absorbed: Strategy sold 1,638 BTC for approximately $105m, while reported losses from the Coldcard security incident have risen to around $110m. Neither event resulted in a sustained break lower. Options markets reflect a similar lack of panic. Front-end implied volatility remains near the lower end of its recent range and downside skew has moderated, even as the macro backdrop stays mixed. US manufacturing strengthened in July, but labour indicators have softened. JOLTS openings fell to 7.36m and ADP payrolls rose by only 44k, putting today's US employment report firmly in focus. Meanwhile, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent back above $83. Japan remains another important liquidity variable following the joint intervention to support the yen. With domestic yields rising and the BOJ still holding around half of outstanding JGBs, Japanese funding conditions remain relevant well beyond the FX market. For crypto, the distinction remains important: resilience has improved, but momentum remains limited. Macro liquidity, energy markets and the timing of US digital-asset legislation remain the key variables to watch. Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 5 August 2026 The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price. Markets are still assigning a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21%—a 19-year high. The disconnect between policy expectations and long-end yields is keeping the rates outlook unsettled. That uncertainty extends to FX. After the yen weakened beyond ¥163 per dollar, Japan’s estimated ¥8.45tn intervention pushed USD/JPY back towards ¥157. The US joined a day later with an estimated $5–10bn operation—the first joint US–Japan yen-buying intervention since 1998—reinforcing the signal that policymakers are prepared to act again. When central banks stop guiding and start intervening,which policy signal should markets trust?

QCP Market Colour, 3 August 2026 The US has joined Japan in a rare coordinated effort to support the yen, with the New York Fed purchasing yen on behalf of the US Treasury during Friday’s operation. It was the first coordinated US–Japan FX intervention since 2011 and the first joint operation specifically supporting the yen since 1998. The timing puts the long end of the Treasury curve firmly in focus. The 30-year yield reached approximately 5.27% on Friday, its highest since 2007, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate remained near 2.28%. That has kept attention on the role of issuance, investor demand and cross-border flows alongside inflation expectations. For crypto, a rapid yen appreciation can contribute to the unwinding of yen-funded positions and spill over into broader risk assets. However, a more stable currency could also reduce the need for repeated intervention and remove one potential source of pressure on Treasury-market liquidity. The episode is not a clear directional signal for digital assets. Instead, it shows why USD/JPY, Japanese funding conditions and long-dated Treasury yields are increasingly relevant to the liquidity environment surrounding BTC and ETH. Is Treasury action becoming as important as Fed communication in shaping global financial conditions? Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 31 July 2026 The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but three dissents in favour of a hike and Chair Warsh’s move away from explicit forward guidance gave the decision a hawkish tone. Markets initially responded by reassessing the path for rates. US equities sold off following the announcement before rebounding as earnings returned to the foreground, led by a sharp rally in Microsoft. BTC also moved lower around the meeting before stabilising near 64k. The economic picture remains mixed. Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5% annualised, but consumer spending and underlying domestic demand remained resilient. Core PCE held at 3.3% year on year, keeping the Fed’s focus firmly on inflation. Asia added another source of volatility. The KOSPI rebounded a record 17.9% on Friday after falling more than 17% earlier in the week, highlighting the growing links between AI equities, regional liquidity and crypto sentiment. For digital assets, July ends with relative resilience but limited confirmation. The immediate Fed catalyst has passed, yet rates, ETF flows and broader risk conditions remain central to the next move. Has the market absorbed the Fed’s hawkish signal, or has uncertainty simply shifted further along the calendar? Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 29 July 2026 Early earnings suggest AI infrastructure momentum remains intact. Celestica reported revenue of $4.70bn, up 62% YoY, and lifted its FY26 guidance to $20.5bn, while Seagate and Teradyne pointed to continued strength in storage, testing and compute demand. The focus now shifts to Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Their results need to show that AI spending is translating into cloud growth and end-user monetisation—not simply fuelling another capex cycle. That matters as Nvidia sits at the centre of an increasingly circular ecosystem, while five-year CDS spreads across major AI hyperscalers have climbed sharply. Broader risk also remains elevated. Renewed US–Iran strikes drove Hormuz traffic back towards a standstill, with just one tanker crossing as of 27 July. Meanwhile, the SPR remains at 311.4mb—its lowest level since March 1983 and just 11.4mb above the 300mb stress zone. If AI demand remains intact, can monetisation grow quickly enough to support the capital behind it?

QCP Market Colour, 27 July 2026 Markets enter a pivotal week with rates firmly in focus. US equities ended Friday mixed as weakness in large-cap technology stocks continued, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased after reaching its highest level since January 2025 earlier in the week. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where markets will focus not only on the policy decision, but also on how the Fed assesses the inflation and growth outlook. Crypto has shown relative strength in July, although spot ETF flows softened at the end of last week. US-listed spot BTC and ETH ETFs recorded combined net outflows of approximately $311 million on 24 July, bringing renewed attention to whether institutional flows remain supportive. Options markets also reflect a more cautious near-term tone, with renewed demand for downside protection as macro uncertainty builds. Positive funding and elevated ETH volatility suggest positioning remains constructive, but not without hedging. Will this week’s Fed meeting provide greater clarity, or keep digital assets tied to shifts in rates and broader risk sentiment? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 23 July 2026 Alphabet beat on cloud and search, and still fell 4% after-hours. The problem was not the quarter but the spending behind it, with 2026 AI capex lifted to $195-205bn reviving margin-durability concerns. That is the tension running through the tape. TSMC delivered Q2 revenue at the top of guidance and ASML raised its 2026 outlook, so the semis momentum is real. But the market is no longer rewarding the capex that drives it, with Tesla and Intel reporting next. Broader risk stays pressured by the widening Gulf conflict. Hormuz traffic has collapsed to a near standstill, and the SPR has drawn down to its lowest since 1983, leaving little cushion if disruption forces further releases. If a beat is not enough, what does the AI trade need to prove next? Read the full Macro Themes here.

QCP Market Colour, 20 July 2026 Markets are firmly risk-off, with geopolitics adding another layer of pressure. Oil is supported, equities are under strain, and BTC is holding a narrow $63,000 to $65,000 range. US equities ended the week lower, led by semiconductors as investors grew concerned that hyperscalers could moderate AI infrastructure spending. Capital rotated toward defensives and energy, with Brent above $85 and on course for a weekly gain of more than 10% after the US reimposed a naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz. Crypto is caught in the same two-sided setup. BTC is consolidating near $64,100 after dipping below $63,000, while flows have turned supportive, with US spot ETFs recording four straight days of inflows after a record $8 billion outflow streak. Volatility stays offered, leaving front-end options inexpensive against the oil tail risk into month-end. With Brent bid and the Fed leaning hawkish into the 28 to 29 July FOMC, which side of the range breaks first? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 16 July 2026 The clearest feature of this week's tape is disagreement. In oil, rates, China and crypto funding, the headline points one way while the underlying condition points the other. Oil is the sharpest example. The peace deal is in crisis and Hormuz traffic has fallen to its lowest since late May, yet underneath that, supply is recovering as Saudi Arabia resets pricing and OPEC+ lifts quotas again. Rates carry the same tension. Waller has turned explicitly hawkish just as the consumer fades, with revolving credit contracting after running above 10% in April. China splits the same way, with factory prices near a four-year high while retail sales contract. In crypto, Strategy changed its funding route rather than its stack, raising equity to lift its USD reserve without touching its BTC. When the headline and the plumbing disagree this widely, which one gets repriced first? Get this week's Macro Themes here.

QCP Digital Assets Market Outlook | Q3 2026 Four things that actually matter this quarter: 1. The macro backdrop and a Fed that's harder to read 2. AI versus crypto capital rotation 3. Why the corporate treasury bid now comes with conditions attached, and 4. How we're thinking about positioning across BTC, ETH, SOL and options. Our deepest read of the quarter: the rates backdrop, why $BTC still trades as a high-beta liquidity asset, our full positioning framework, and the base, bull, and bear scenarios ahead. Get the full outlook here.

QCP Market Colour, 13 July 2026 Crypto enters the week with little conviction as markets brace for a packed calendar of macro and corporate catalysts. Tuesday's US CPI release and Fed Chair Warsh's two-day testimony before Congress are likely to shape expectations for the Fed's policy path, with investors looking for greater clarity on the outlook for rates. The macro calendar is only half the story. Q2 earnings season begins this week with the major US banks, followed by several blue-chip names across technology and financials. With equity valuations already elevated, particularly across AI infrastructure, companies may need to deliver more than earnings beats to keep the rally intact. For crypto, the broader backdrop remains constructive, supported by institutional adoption and steady ETF demand. However, without a clearer macro catalyst, BTC may remain rangebound as markets wait for greater conviction. Is this week's CPI and earnings season enough to reignite risk appetite, or will markets continue to wait for a clearer signal from the Fed? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 10 July 2026 BTC has rebounded towards 64k after a sharp reversal in Japanese government bond yields eased concerns over a disorderly unwind of yen-funded carry trades. While the move provided relief for global liquidity, Japan's bond market remains a key risk with the BOJ meeting later this month. Crypto has also continued to absorb renewed geopolitical tensions. Despite the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, higher oil prices and a firmer dollar, BTC quickly recovered after a wave of leveraged liquidations pushed prices briefly towards 61.5k. The broader macro backdrop remains supportive but increasingly conditional. AI-driven growth, institutional demand and ETF inflows continue to underpin crypto, though next week's US CPI and the path of real yields remain key catalysts. BTC is showing resilience, but confirmation still requires a sustained move back above 64k. Is this the start of a stronger second-half recovery, or simply another pause before macro volatility returns? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Trends – 9 July 2026 Even a soft jobs print wasn't enough to put Fed cuts back on the table, and that matters because buffers are thinning at the same time across oil, crypto and credit. The relief markets were counting on isn't coming. June payrolls rose just +57k, roughly half the expected +110k, yet it wasn't enough to shift the Fed. Wage growth is still +3.5% and M2 hit a record $23.05tn, keeping inflation the binding constraint ahead of 14 Jul CPI. With no monetary cushion coming, the physical buffers matter more. The SPR has drawn down to its lowest since 1983, Strategy sold BTC for the first time to fund dividends, and private-credit redemption requests breached the 5% gates across eight semi-liquid funds. Different corners, same pattern: the buffers are wearing thin. With no monetary cushion coming and buffers thinning across oil, crypto and credit, where does the first crack show? Get this week's Macro Trends here.

QCP Market Colour – 6 July 2026 BTC has kicked off July with a solid recovery, consistent with seasonality. After a weaker June, July has averaged a 7.5% gain, one of Bitcoin's strongest months. The move follows Thursday's soft jobs report, where June payrolls rose just 57k, roughly half of consensus. That leaves Fed Chair Warsh facing a macro hat-trick: a softening labour market, sticky inflation, and pressure from Washington to ease. Crypto has stayed resilient through it. Implied vol has drifted lower and put skew has moderated, though some still draw parallels to 2022 and stay cautious into year-end. A decisive reclaim of 64k this week would boost sentiment and ease some of the uncertainty around Strategy. The bulls have bought some extra time, but the final whistle is still some distance away. A genuine second-half comeback, or an echo of 2022's July bounce? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour – 3 July 2026 BTC pierced its key 58k support on Wednesday, printing a low near 57.7k before a softer-than-expected NFP sparked a relief bounce back above 60k. ETH outperformed, reclaiming the 1,700 handle, nearly 10% off its midweek lows. Options markets were quick to fade the stress. Front-end vols unwound most of last week's spike, the term structure re-steepened into contango, and topside calls led July flows. Carry has flipped back in favour of vol sellers. But the jobs report that sparked the bounce hardly makes the dovish case. Wages accelerated, unemployment fell and spending is still hot, giving the Fed room to stay hawkish. Treasuries and equities agree; crypto is the greener shoot, with BTC spot ETFs pulling in $224mn after a six-session outflow streak. Has the panic truly cleared, or is spot just bouncing while rates and equities refuse to confirm? Read the full Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Trends – 1 July 2026 The peace deal is signed and the Fed has held. Markets are now pricing the aftermath. The US-Iran deal removed the headline, but not the cost of moving oil through Hormuz. War-risk insurance still runs about 8x pre-war levels even with Brent at $73-75, and Washington is leaning on a thinning strategic reserve to hold prices down. On rates, the message is patience. PCE is still above target and core momentum remains firm, so the case for cuts keeps slipping ahead of Thursday's jobs print. Elsewhere, the AI memory shock is reaching the shelf, with Micron beating and Apple raising prices across its memory-heavy line while leaving the iPhone unchanged. Have the headline risks truly cleared, or are they simply being repriced downstream in insurance, inflation and pricing? Get this week's Macro Trends here.

QCP Market Colour – 29 June 2026 It has been 12 days since the U.S.-Iran MOU was signed, yet tensions continue to mount after a weekend of military exchanges and fresh accusations of ceasefire violations from both sides. Oil has remained largely stable in the low $70s, suggesting cautious optimism, but the muted reaction leaves upside risk if supply recovery proves slower than expected. In crypto, implied vols continue to trend higher as traders pay up for downside protection, particularly in the 55k–58k BTC puts for July expiry. BTC and ETH are still trading just above key support levels, while Strategy concerns, BTC spot ETF outflows and pressure on equities continue to weigh on sentiment. With Warsh speaking at the ECB forum, ISM and payrolls ahead, and U.S.-Iran tensions still fluid, will thinner liquidity keep volatility elevated this short week? Read the full colour here.

Starting this week, we're adding a new layer to your Market Colour: Macro Trends. A weekly read on the bigger forces quietly (or not so quietly) moving markets underneath the surface noise. QCP Macro Trends – 24 June 2026 Macro has shifted from headline relief to execution risk. The US-Iran MOU is signed and Brent is back below $80, but Hormuz remains contested. Crossings are still at just 14, far below normal, while a 60-day technical-talks clock is now running. The Fed also reinforced higher-for-longer. Policy stayed at 3.50–3.75%, but the median 2026 dot rose to 3.8% and Warsh removed forward guidance, leaving markets to price reaction-function uncertainty ahead of PCE. Elsewhere, Strategy keeps stacking BTC even as its funding math tightens with spot below cost basis and STRC below par. Has macro risk truly cooled, or are markets simply moving from headline relief into the harder execution test? Read the full Macro Trends here.