ForexPeaceArmy

🇺🇸🤓🗣Consumer sentiment in the United States has fallen to a 74-year low. It is now worse than during the 2020 lockdowns, the 2008 financial crisis, and the inflationary crisis of the 1980s, when interest rates were 18%. And all of this is happening against the backdrop of record highs in the stock market and, possibly, one of the most contentious midterm elections in history.

🇺🇸🛢🇮🇷🗣On Friday, transit through the Strait of Hormuz virtually came to a halt – RTRS Transit through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to grind to a near standstill on Friday after two more ships were attacked there, and the United States said it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely. This has never happened before, and now it's happening again. Meanwhile, the second month of a 90-day conflict between the United States and Iran is underway. Overall, nothing particularly interesting is happening except for the blockade of the strait. There is no sign of an oil and gas panic on the horizon. The goals and objectives of the operation are unclear, the positions of the parties are diametrically opposed, and the outcome is unpredictable. The conspiracy theorist in me says that all of this is happening for a reason.😎

🇺🇸🇮🇷🗣The US will present a plan for "economic isolation" of Iran next week. bloomberg.com ✅it is only a matter of time before Iran acquires a nuclear bomb. And Iran with a nuclear bomb would mark the end of U.S. hegemony in the "energy heart of the planet." ✅And the end of U.S. hegemony in the "energy heart of the planet" would mean the meaningless existence of Israel, whose end would also be a matter of time. ✅And the meaningless existence (end) of Israel would lead to the disintegration of the "Greater West" (the separation of Europe). And the separation of Europe would usher in a new world. ✅Now you understand why the U.S. cannot leave Iran alone. It would be the end of America.

🇺🇸⚠️ Atlanta GDPNow (Q3): ▫️ +4.3% (expected: +5.8%) ▫️ previous value: +5.8%

🇺🇸🤓🗣Gamblers have moved from the periphery to the center of the market – testing the upper limit of self-soothing. According to Goldman Sachs, retail investors now account for approximately 30% of the total daily trading volume in the US stock market. But there's a problem. "Structural buyers" (formerly known as gamblers) have never experienced a full-blown, prolonged bear market. Since 2022, there have been few significant and sustained downturns. As long as the "buy the dip" (BTFD) strategy works, it remains to be seen how retail investors will behave when a decline becomes a trend, and household incomes actually start to suffer.

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🐛🔍USDT - Tether has completed its first-ever financial audit, conducted by KPMG, a company from the "Big Four" accounting firms. This is significant because Tether has been criticized for a lack of transparency for nearly 10 years. The audit covered the year 2025 and examined all assets, including gold bars, liabilities, financial flows, documents, and counterparties.

🇺🇸🤓🗣The record gap between margin debt and free cash balances in U.S. brokerage accounts indicates an unprecedented reliance of the stock market on borrowed capital. In June 2026, FINRA's margin debt reached approximately $1.5 trillion, while the aggregate free cash of clients was significantly lower. As a result, the net position of investors relative to brokers fell to approximately -$1.06 trillion – a historical low.

🇺🇸💸The United States will pay the highest amount for 30-year government debt in the last quarter-century. The market now believes that authorities will further shift the focus of borrowing towards short-term bonds. 🏆On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department will auction off $25 billion in bonds with a maturity of 30 years. The expected yield on the new bonds is approximately 5.24% – the highest borrowing cost since 2001.

🇩🇪🛒Inflation in Germany accelerated to 2.8% year-on-year in July, following the expiry of the fuel discount. The final figures were released by the Federal Statistical Office, confirming the preliminary estimate.

🇺🇸🤓🗣Is it time for another overhype? Investors at Anthropic are reportedly expecting the chatbot developer Claude to go public as early as October, with a valuation of at least $2 trillion, according to the Financial Times. This offering could be the largest IPO in history, surpassing SpaceX's June debut, which was valued at nearly $1.8 trillion. Apparently, they're not even waiting.

🇯🇵🇺🇸❓The Federal Reserve cannot raise interest rates because this would lead to further devaluation of the Japanese yen. Japan also cannot raise interest rates because this would trigger widespread debt defaults. Japan faces a choice: either maintain the value of its currency by raising rates, or save the bond market. ✅The Japanese government cannot simultaneously save both the Japanese yen and the US dollar. Japan is heavily reliant on imports of energy resources, which are traded on the global market in US dollars. Therefore, as soon as energy prices rise sharply, the game will be over. 🛢💰📉While the US is saving itself and Japan by lowering oil prices. For how long? 😉It's a question of who will blink first...

🇺🇸🤓🗣US Budget: Record July Deficit ✅In July, the US budget recorded a record deficit for the month of $432 billion. Revenues amounted to $334 billion (-1.3% year-over-year). Expenditures soared to $766 billion (+21.3% year-over-year). ✅In total, over the 12 months, revenues were $5.37 trillion, expenditures were $7.32 trillion, and the deficit was $1.95 trillion. ✅One of the reasons is that illegally collected tariffs had to be returned: an additional $33 billion had to be returned. In addition, with record corporate profits, tax revenue after deductions has significantly decreased, while expenses, including interest payments, have increased. Moreover, since the beginning of the fiscal year, tax revenue has been 1/4 lower than last year. Only increased taxes on the population are boosting revenues.

🇺🇸🗣⚠️ U.S. Producer Price Index (Year-over-Year): ▫️ +4.7% (expected: +4.9%) ▫️ Previous value: +5.5% U.S. Core Producer Price Index (Year-over-Year): ▫️ +4.2% (expected: +4.2%) ▫️ Previous value: +4.7%

🛢🇮🇱🇺🇸🗣US Commercial Oil Inventories Just Released. The expected decrease was -1.7 million barrels, but instead, there was a record increase of +17 million barrels. Americans are scrambling and trying to suck up all the oil they can from the partially open pipeline (operating at 8-10% of capacity). In addition, Trump is transferring oil from the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) into commercial inventories. They are doing everything they can to lower gasoline prices before the midterm elections. Meanwhile, Japan, South Korea, and Europe are struggling to meet their needs. The situation with Japan and its nuclear bomb of debt is becoming increasingly interesting. I think this shift in focus from oil to other energy sources by people who wanted to become an energy superpower just six months ago says a lot about the predicament they are in. 🇻🇪Imports of crude oil from Venezuela to the United States increased last week to the highest level since September 2024. 🇨🇦Weekly imports of crude oil to the United States from Canada also rose to the highest level since March 2025, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy. 🇺🇸Meanwhile, the United States itself is the largest oil producer in the world, with 13.5 million barrels produced in June.

🇺🇸🗣💰12.9% of credit card balances in the US are 90+ days past due, which is close to the highest level since 2011. 💰10.6% of student loans are 90+ days past due, which is the highest level since 2020. 💰5.5% of auto loans are 90+ days past due, which is slightly below the record high.

🇺🇸🦅The Federal Reserve is stirring: the head of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank says that one interest rate hike will not be enough to defeat inflation. Beth Hammack also openly acknowledged that inflation in the United States is rising. 🔊"Overall, I would say that one move of 25 basis points is unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy," Hammack said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. "So, it will probably require a number of moves. But I don't want to prejudge what that number will be." She stated that she does not believe that interest rates in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% are currently "significantly restraining" the economy.

🇺🇸🤓🗣🇺🇸 US Consumer Sentiment Index Plummets to a 74-Year Low. 🔞 The consumer sentiment index in America is now worse than it was at the height of the 2020 lockdowns, the 2008 financial crisis, and the inflationary crisis of the 1980s, when interest rates reached 18%. 📊 This is all happening while the stock market is at historical highs, corporate profits are growing, and there's a frenzy of spending on AI. ⚠️ Furthermore, the US is entering the active phase of some of the most contentious midterm elections ever held.

🇪🇺🔮💸A 1% decrease in GDP, a loss of €180 billion, and a threat to continuous shipping on the Rhine: new short-term forecasts have emerged regarding the impact of the abnormal heatwave in Europe. Previously, long-term assessments were made, extending to the year 2030. ⏸️The EU's GDP could decrease by 1%, which would mean economic stagnation in 2026, according to experts from the Netherlands.

🇯🇵🤓🗣🇯🇵Hedge funds are unwinding their bearish bets on the yen after currency intervention by the US and Japan.   📉Funds with leverage reduced their net short positions in the yen by 74,440 contracts, to 63,600 contracts, over the 5 weeks ending August 4, according to CFTC data.   ⚠️This is one of the sharpest reductions in short positions since the 2008 financial crisis.   ✔️At the end of June, leveraged funds held 138,000 net short contracts – the largest short position since 2007.