Trading and Economics

Rubber Futures Up to Near 2-Week High Rubber futures rose to near 197 US cents per kilogram, the highest in nearly two weeks, in part reflecting higher oil prices amid uncertainty about a potential de-escalation of the Middle East conflict. In the meantime, tight naphtha supplies have curtailed butadiene production, pushing up synthetic rubber prices and supporting demand for natural rubber as an alternative. Meanwhile, the supply outlook remained constrained by seasonal reduced output in major producers in Southeast Asia. Rubber crops usually undergo a season of low production from February to May, before a peak harvesting period that lasts until September.

🇺🇸 US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Rises in March The Kansas City Fed's Manufacturing Index edged up to 11 in March 2026, an increase from 10 in February. Both durable and non-durable production increased, led by wood products on the durable side and by paper, plastics, and rubber on the non-durable side. The month-over-month composite index rose to 11, up from 5 in February. Most indicators remained in positive territory, with the exception of new export orders, which declined from 0 to -4. The number of employees index rebounded to 7 from -6. Year-over-year indexes were mixed: new orders for exports, number of employees and finished goods inventory remained negative, while backlog of orders and the average employee workweek rebounded to positive territory. Other indicators continued to post positive readings, although capital expenditures declined to 5 from 8. Looking ahead, expectations for future activity strengthened further, with the index rising to 16 from 15.

Bonds Update: Brazil 10Y Bond Yield Gains by 23 bps Government bonds yields are higher on Thursday. Top gainers are Brazil 10Y (22.50bps), Italy 10Y (15.17bps) and United Kingdom 10Y (14.36bps).

🇨🇴 Colombia's Industrial Confidence Rises on Inventory Decline Colombia's industrial confidence indicator rose to 0.9% in February 2026, up 2.4 percentage points from January. The monthly improvement was driven by a 4.7 pps decline in inventory levels to -7.4% and a 3.4 pps rise in current order volumes to -28.6%, partially offset by a 1.0 pps drop in production expectations for the next quarter to 23.9%. Year-over-year, the 0.2% confidence gain was primarily due to a 7.4 pps decline in inventory levels.

🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar Weakens to 2-Month Low The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.38 per US dollar to hit a two-month low as persistent geopolitical friction and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations bolstered the greenback. Although West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose beyond $92.00 amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz the commodity-linked Loonie struggled to gain traction against a broadly firmer US dollar. Market skepticism regarding a Middle East de-escalation intensified after Iran rejected a 15-point US peace proposal and dismissed claims of ongoing negotiations while the US deployed additional troops to the region. These developments have fueled inflationary concerns and led traders to price out further Federal Reserve rate cuts with increasing bets on a potential hike by year-end. Rising US Treasury yields and the greenback's status as a global reserve currency continue to pressure the loonie.

US Natgas Prices Rise After EIA Data US natural gas futures climbed to nearly $3 per MMBtu after a larger-than-expected storage draw, with EIA data showing a 54 billion cubic feet withdrawal for the week ended March 20, above forecasts for 44 bcf. This contrasts with a 33 bcf injection a year earlier and a five-year average decline of 21 bcf. Stockpiles fell to 1.829 trillion cubic feet, about 5.2% above year-ago levels and 0.8% above the seasonal average. The latest draw is likely the final withdrawal of the winter season as warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected through early April, reducing demand. In the Middle East, Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal but talks are said to be ongoing. Despite tensions, US gas prices remain relatively stable due to ample inventories and limited short-term exposure to global markets.

🇺🇸 US Natural Gas Stocks Fall More than Expected US energy firms withdrew 54 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage in the week ended March 20, exceeding expectations for a 44 bcf draw. This compares with a 33 bcf injection during the same period last year and an average decline of 21 bcf over the past five years. Total stockpiles fell to 1.829 trillion cubic feet, standing about 5.2% above year-ago levels and roughly 0.8% above the five-year average. In the previous week, utilities had added 35 bcf to storage.

Baltic Dry Index Rises for 2nd Day The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index, which monitors rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, advanced for a second day on Thursday, rising 0.7% to 2,014 points, bolstered by the bigger-size segment. The capesize index, which typically transport 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, was also up for a second session, climbing 2% to a near one-week high of 2,974 points. Conversely, the panamax index, which usually carry 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, fell by 1.5% to a six-week low of 1,770 points; and the supramax index decreased 0.3% to 1,205 points.

FX Updates: Norwegian Krone Appreciates by 0.49% Top currency gainers are Norwegian Krone (0.49%) and Dollar Index (0.16%). Biggest losers are Australian Dollar (-0.47%), Swedish Krona (-0.45%), New Zealand Dollar (-0.42%) and Euro (-0.10%). Meanwhile, Japanese Yen and British Pound were little changed.

Silver Mounts Further Losses Silver prices fell around 3% to trade below $69.5 per ounce on Thursday as a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields dampened demand for non-yielding bullion. The dollar index edged up for a third consecutive session while the 10-year Treasury yield held around eight-month highs as investors weighed the end of a five-day pause in US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. Although the Trump administration reportedly delivered a 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan Tehran has shown little willingness to compromise while the US deployed additional troops to the region. These geopolitical tensions have kept energy prices elevated reinforcing inflation concerns and fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain steady interest rates. On the data front initial jobless claims matched forecasts at 210K while continuing claims fell to a near two-year low suggesting a resilient labor market.

Oil Rises Amid Middle East Uncertainties WTI crude oil futures rose more than 3% to $93.5 per barrel on Thursday after President Donald Trump issued a fresh warning to Iran to advance peace talks aimed at ending the conflict disrupting global energy supplies. Fighting continues across the Middle East, with Trump urging Tehran to engage seriously “before it is too late” as the White House maintains that discussions are ongoing, though Iran has rejected proposals and set its own conditions. Reports indicate Iran’s parliament is drafting a bill to charge fees for securing ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with vessels required to provide detailed clearance information. Trump reiterated that talks are underway and signaled hopes of ending the conflict soon, while the Pentagon has reportedly deployed additional forces to the region, highlighting ongoing tensions despite diplomatic efforts.

🇿🇦 South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Hovers Around 5-Month Highs South Africa’s 10-year bond yield was around 9%, close to the highest since mid-October 2025, as risk appetite remained constrained while the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) adopted a more hawkish tone. The central bank kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.75%, citing heightened global uncertainty following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and its impact on inflation and growth. Inflation is now seen higher this year and next while growth projections were kept unchanged. Governor Kganyago said the SARB’s projection model showed rates unchanged for a longer period, postponing cuts seen in January.

🇨🇦 TSX Muted on Middle East War Uncertainty The S

🇧🇷 Ibovespa Slips on Inflation Surprise and Middle East War Uncertainty The Ibovespa lost about 0.5% to trade below 185,000 on Thursday, pressured by higher-than-expected mid-month inflation and mixed Middle East war signals. The IPCA-15's momentum slowed in March after seasonal back-to-school effects faded, but food and personal expenses kept inflation above expectations. While the 12-month rate eased, it remains above the 3.0% target, adding pressure on the base rate outlook while Iran conflict-driven oil rises with no clear end in sight could further complicate central banks' rate decisions. Major banks posted losses: Itaú down 1%, Bradesco 0.6%. Utilities traded negative, with Axia and Sabesp shedding over 1%. Other laggards included Vale down 0.6%, WEG down 0.6%, and Ambev down 0.5%. Petrobras gained near 1% on higher oil prices. Americanas surged near 17% after filing to exit judicial recovery, selling assets, and reporting sharp Q4 2025 improvement versus Q4 2024.

🇺🇸 Treasury Yields Climb As Inflation Concerns Persist The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.36% on Thursday, easing from an intraday high of 4.39%, as investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East and their implications for oil prices, inflation, and economic growth. Conflicting signals persist regarding a potential de-escalation. A five-day pause in US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure is set to expire tomorrow, while President Trump has warned of intensified military action, as Tehran shows little willingness to compromise. Disruptions linked to the conflict have pushed energy prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and strengthening expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates steady throughout the year. On the data front, initial jobless claims edged up slightly to 210K, while continuing claims fell to a near two-year low. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note which is more sensitive to short-term Fed policy expectations, rose sharply by nearly 30 basis points to 3.9%.

🇿🇦 South African Rand Remains Under Pressure The South African rand traded near 17 per USD, close to its weakest since December 2025, amid ongoing risk aversion due to lingering uncertainty around the Middle East war. Meanwhile, the South African Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but adopted a more hawkish tone.

🇺🇸 US Stocks Retreat on Thursday US stocks were firmly lower on Thursday, cutting this week's rebound as assessed strikes in the Middle East and the magnitude of inflationary risks from stemming from the conflict. The S

🇺🇸 Meta Stock Price Hits 46-week Low Meta shares decreased to 578.94 USD, the lowest since May 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Meta Platforms, Inc. lost 9.46%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 2.63%.

🇿🇦 South Africa Leaves Monetary Policy Untouched The South African Reserve Bank unanimously held its key repo rate unchanged at 6.75% on March 26, 2026, as widely expected, marking the second consecutive hold. Policymakers highlighted that risks to the inflation outlook were skewed to the upside, amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. While February inflation aligned with the target and expectations have moved closer to 3%, ongoing Middle East tensions are introducing additional price pressures.

🇨🇦 TSX Futures Fall as Mixed Iran Signals Keep Oil Rising Futures tracking the S