Glassnode

Sellers are getting exhausted, but have not reached levels we saw in past $BTC bear markets. According to the Seller Exhaustion Constant (30d), the historical bottoming signature has not confirmed yet. We continue to monitor for selling to stall further.

$BTC options are showing a cautious but improving setup. Vol is being repriced higher, short-dated fear is fading, calls still dominate OI, and recent premium flow is increasingly constructive. Here’s what the options market is signalling👇 $BTC options have shifted back to a modest vol premium, with IV now ~10% above RV after weeks of realised vol outpacing implied. The market is paying up for uncertainty again, but pricing remains far from stressed. https://glassno.de/4z8hejG $BTC skew has softened sharply at the front end, with 1-week 25Δ skew falling toward ~7%. Longer tenors remain elevated near 10–12%, suggesting near-term fear is fading while structural demand for downside protection persists. https://glassno.de/4fKKV2B BTC options OI remains call-heavy, with calls near ~$15B versus ~$10B in puts after a sharp expiry-driven reset. The persistent gap shows call-side positioning remains structurally larger despite weaker spot. https://glassno.de/3UkdXgX Premium flow is concentrated around $61k–$67k, led by heavy $65k call buying and put selling. The mix points to constructive near-term positioning, while put demand below spot shows downside hedging remains active. https://glassno.de/4hqnRrb Wrap up: $BTC options point to a market growing more constructive without abandoning protection. Near-term fear is easing, calls still dominate positioning, and fresh flow is improving, but longer-dated hedging demand remains elevated.

Your AI agent can now buy Glassnode data. x402 pays per call: from your Coinbase balance via Coinbase for Agents (live today), or any USDC wallet via Base MCP. Try: "Pull Glassnode's MVRV and NUPL for BTC and tell me if the market is overheated" https://glassno.de/451fVoR Watch on X

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Following the Coldcard firmware exploit, the number of active Bitcoin addresses surged to 0.98M/day, the highest since December 2024. This is fear-driven on-chain activity. Holders migrating seeds and moving funds to alternative custody reflects an operational security response, not a change in market conviction. 📉 http://glassno.de/btc-active-addresses

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Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything.

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OKX moved its trading infrastructure from Hong Kong to Tokyo this week. Our latency probes caught the switch live: Hong Kong: ~5ms → ~63ms Tokyo: ~52ms → ~4ms A clean swap. If you’re co-located in Hong Kong for @okx, it’s time to move to Tokyo. 👉 http://latency.glassnode.com/cex

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Now live in Market Compass: the #Bitcoin Cycle Position Composite, with heatmap, and snapshot charts – updated daily. Included in all Advanced and Pro plans. Quoting @n3ocortex: As requested: the cycle position composite as a time-series 👇 https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/2084300783021944891

Bitcoin's options skew looks bearish – but not because traders are aggressively paying for protection. While downside IV is cheap, the real extreme is upside IV: an all-time low of 23%. Nobody is paying for $BTC upside anymore. Quoting @glassnode: Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448

Over the last 90 days the S&P 500 rose 5% while Bitcoin fell 20%. The last 7 days show the same pattern. Until Bitcoin reclaims strength against the indices, this remains an equity-led tape. Notably, the NASDAQ is lagging behind other major indices indicating an unfavorable environment for tech-heavy portfolios. https://glassno.de/4q7edf4

$BTC has stabilised near $65k, with stronger taker demand, robust institutional inflows and easing downside hedging. However, subdued spot liquidity and weak on-chain activity suggest the recovery remains tentative. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

Last week, the market sold off into the FOMC and bottomed on decision day: the S&P printed a 7-week low, with equity fear spiking. Four sessions later, we saw new highs. The decision to hold rates steady appears to have been the risk-on signal the market was waiting for Quoting @glassnode: Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448

The support under $BTC has started to disappear. The heavy wall of buy orders that built below price in June has begun to drain away. What remains is a much thinner floor. In our weekly updates we've been monitoring this metric closely 👇 https://x.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446?s=20

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