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Threading on the Edge

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Owner : @arndxt Newsletter: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo TG: https://t.me/threadingontheedge Farcaster: https://warpcast.com/arndxt Lens: https://lenster.xyz/u/arndxt

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  • 17 авг.I was talking to a friend recently who trades with six figs. He mostly trades on CEXs, has basically never traded perp DEXs, and has zero interest in perp DEX airdrops. At the same time, among the CEXes he uses is BingX, even though they don’t have a token. I got curious why he trades there. In theory, perp DEXes could adopt the same model of opportunities that BingX offers users, so people wouldn't have to care about some future token in the first place, let alone an airdrop. Over the last six months, he gave me three examples of trades he made on BingX that together made him more than $150k. The oil case in March, when the US and Israel went to war with Iran. BingX has isolated margin with 100x leverage. The war started while the markets were closed, so you could open a long with $1,000 margin and a short with $1,000 margin. That’s $2,000 locked up for a $200k position. When the markets reopened, with all the volatility, the maximum you could lose was $1,000 on one side because of isolated margin, while making a lot more on the other. Oil went up to $120 while it had been around $90 over the weekend, so the long made about $26k with only a $1k loss on the short. This worked several times during those weeks because of the ongoing escalation and the markets closing over the weekends. My friend made more than $100k on this. In April, some tokenized stocks on Binance, like TSLA and NVIDIA, suddenly rose 15-20% because of a bug, even though the actual stocks didn't move at all. The price on BingX also went up, while prices on perp DEXes didn’t change. So you could short basically any size on BingX, wait for the bug to be fixed and the price to come back down, and make money on the short. My friend made $40k on this. Then there was a 20% spread on $ARIA between BingX and Bybit. You could short on BingX, go long on Bybit, wait for the prices to converge and make money on the spread. My friend made $12k on this. So in the first case, it was an isolated-margin dual-position strategy. The second was probably closer to bug exploitation, although that's more of an exchange problem than a user problem. The third was classic arbitrage. Can perp DEXes offer something like this? Unlikely. Oracles, 24/7 markets and lower liquidity make these kinds of opportunities much harder to reproduce. Just out of curiosity, I asked him afterwards: why aren't you interested in perp DEX airdrops? There are cases like Lighter and Hyperliquid, and it seems like a more reliable way to make money than what you just described, especially since an exchange can block your account and freeze your funds. He answered: "What's the point if, out of a bunch of scam stories, you can only name a couple of good cases? The rest of these perp DEXs just screwed their users. I'm interested in making money here and now, including the risk of losing money because of an account block, like you said. Why would I farm some points just to maybe get rewards for them in a year or two? And it's not even clear whether those rewards are guaranteed or whether they'll be worth my time. What, do I have nothing better to do? I value my time, and I'm not going to waste it on this shit." Do you agree with him? https://x.com/muarmemuar/status/20892695129189787521,94%
  • 17 авг.There are 9 days left until Hyperliquid's revenue-share deal with Circle goes live. This is currently expected to generate ~$163 million in additional annualized revenue for Hyperliquid. Very excited to see this live. https://x.com/TheDeFinvestor/status/20892802075679375481,47%
  • 12 авг..@Lighter_xyz launched on @RobinhoodApp Chain to much fanfare, but it has yet to gain meaningful traction. In July, Lighter’s Robinhood Chain deployment generated $86.8 million in perp volume, accounting for just 0.2% of total Lighter volume. Lighter is integrated into Robinhood Wallet, not the main Robinhood app, and its lack of traction shows that Robinhood’s distribution power is concentrated in the main app, not its standalone crypto wallet. https://x.com/AvgJoesCrypto/status/20872401744638325411,23%
  • 7 авг.I look at @Zcash and it does not feel like the usual privacy hype to me. BTC fell ~44% over the last 10 months while ZEC roughly 2x, lifting the ratio from 0.45 to 7.68 milli-BTC for a 17 times relative gain and daily turnover collapsed from 22.5% of market cap down to ~2.4%. Here's what the data says👇 ➥ Roughly 30-35% of supply is now locked in the shielded pool (Grayscale trust, Cypherpunk holdings and the protocol lockbox) ➥ Sellable float got absorbed by holders who simply do not sell ➥ The June counterfeit risk caused a 50% drop yet price made a new local high eight weeks later To me this is float destruction turning $ZEC into a partial bitcoin substitute at just 0.66% of BTC mcap so I remain long. https://x.com/YashasEdu/status/20852482626978573231,06%
  • 14 авг.INFLATION COOLED. NFP DISAPPOINTED. AND THE FED'S HAMMACK STILL WANTS TO HIKE. NEXT WEEK: FOMC MINUTES, FLASH PMIS, JAPAN GDP, UK CPI, CANADA CPI, CHINA ACTIVITY DATA, AND AUSTRALIA JOBS.1,04%
  • 17 авг.long term, $STONKBROKER doesn't survive. here's the math: the nft pays you in real tokenized stocks. but where that money comes from? there is no reserve. every dollar paid to a holder today came from a trade that happened today. so what pays you? people buying and selling the nft. 70% of the fee goes to holders, 30% to the team. the people getting paid and the people paying are the same people. as a group you get back 70 cents of every dollar you put in. you lose 30% every lap. and the circle is already slowing. i measured the same contract 8 days apart: price: -1.2% rewards: -77% the price barely moved and the engine lost 3/4 of its output. because rewards don't track price, they track volume. nft trades went from ~123/day to ~20/day. the apr fell from over 100% to 23% in 8 days. nothing bad happened. people just traded less. and they'll keep trading less, because a round trip through the vault costs 2 eth, 20% of the nft. nobody pays a 20% toll for fun. you need active speculation to justify it. when the speculation stops, the churn goes to 0, and the "dividend" goes to 0. the floor doesn't save you either. 1 nft = exactly 666,666 tokens. the token and the nft are one asset, so there's nothing to rotate into. https://x.com/the_smart_ape/status/20889171867443161261,04%
  • 10 авг.2 prediction market projects shut down today Fireplace, a professional trading terminal that aggregated markets from Polymarket, and Trepa, a precision prediction platform where users earned based on how close their number guesses were, both announced they are shutting down (Trepa was due to a lack of PMF) Source Source 20,97%
  • 20:07what I take from this is that cost of living is increasingly detached from lived quality. the most expensive cities are often expensive because everyone wants access to them. The best-value cities stay good only until enough people discover them. and that makes these rankings more about where geographic arbitrage still exists and how long more before it disappears. - the biggest global cities increasingly charge an access premium. you’re paying for jobs, networks, culture and status and not necessarily a proportionally better day-to-day life. - Porto, Valencia and Prague are the more interesting places. they’ve stayed near the top for years, but all are getting more expensive. good value attracts migration, and migration eventually destroys some of that value. - the Sun Belt trade may be following the same pattern. people move for cheaper housing and better lifestyles, prices rise, and the original arbitrage starts closing. - cheap is also a misleading label. some cities are cheap only if you arrive with foreign income. for locals earning local wages, the experience can be completely different. - London, New York, LA and San Francisco offer the WORST value on earth https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/20897568659830664550,90%
  • 10 авг.Right now the entire crypto AI stack is sprinting into pure inference businesses. ➥ New protocols launch weekly ➥ Existing DePIN networks flip GPU fleets overnight ➥ Subnets rebrand as inference providers ➥ Tokenized access claims, staking for credits and OpenRouter listings are already doing billions of tokens a day This is the openweights moment for crypto. Execution is becoming free and abundant. The projects racing to sell cheaper FLOPs are building the commodity layer that labs and hyperscalers will undercut the second margins look attractive. The only durable edge left is verification grade infra i.e the residual human judgment that still can’t be measured, captured onchain and fed back as proprietary data. While everything else is temporary supply for the supercycle. https://x.com/YashasEdu/status/20863213679439547350,87%
  • 17 авг.There are many posts saying hardware wallets aren’t safe. With due respect, your wallet’s security depends entirely on your overall opsec. I still believe they’re necessary. I’ve ended up collecting a few (added more after some hot-wallet hacks). https://x.com/Eli5defi/status/20892312188314504170,80%
  • 14 авг.I tracked the last 7 days of all 100 traders announced by Pumpfun aggressive KOL campaign You can now check how much of their PnL comes from: > Holding for 1m > Holding for 1h > Holding for multiple days All the info is in the table 👇 https://x.com/dethective/status/20879735045702945610,79%
  • 16 авг.Crypto Watchlist for the week ahead: https://x.com/TheDeFinvestor/status/20889737318131019660,74%