Demographics Now and Then

Guatemala, El Salvador, & Honduras (& likely now Nicaragua too) are all below replacement fertility yet are still significant migration sending countries to both the US & sub 1.5 TFR Mexico. They seem destined to demographically hollow out faster than Eastern Europe did.

🇵🇱 👶 Poland has achieved a modern economic miracle, rising to become EU’s 6th largest economy, but there may be few left to inherit it. TFR has shrunk to just ~1.05 meaning that by 2050 a shrinking workforce faces a brutal dependency ratio supporting a massive retirement wave.

This is a gigantic demographic event and will potentially answer many questions. Most important of all whether the population of the Democratic Republic of Congo is closer to 100 million or 125 million people.

It will soon be the majority opinion that Africa will be like every other region on earth that has seen fertility rates collapse from previously high levels. Just like Latam, developing Asia, & the Middle East. No region is immune & Africa will fall below 2.5 before 2050. Replacement rate in most Sub Saharan African countries also closer to 2.25 than 2.1. The vast majority of these countries will be below replacement by 2050.

In 1994 Mexico had almost 3,000,000 annual births with a fertility rate of 3.10. Today Mexico headed towards an immediate future of sub 1.5M births & a fertility rate of lowest low(below 1.3). This will reshape Central America with millions of Nicaraguans, Guatemalans, & Honduras working in Mexico & their countries becoming demographically hollowed out in the process. Remember Guatemala, Honduras, & Nicaragua at or below replacement fertility already.

Many of the high TFR remote Pacific islands like Tonga also have high emigration levels. So if their TFRs crash to replacement they are toast. Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), with a TFR close to replacement, experiences huge emigration as does the Marshall Islands (though their TFR is above 2.5). Samoa also has high emigration while their fertility rate has fallen to below 2.5. Small states to shrink to nothing. https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2085343652323176784

While mainly a discussion point amongst more niche demographic communities at present, the African fertility collapse to be visable to all by the 2030s. In West, East, & Central Africa TFR likely to fall below 3.5 by mid 2030s. Will be below replacement in all of North & Southern Africa. https://x.com/ulmer62336950/status/2084712951802450141

🇿🇦 👶 South Africa now below their replacement level fertility rate of 2.15. Expect many many more countries in Sub Saharan Africa to follow. Sub Saharan Africa’s population will not come close to 2.5B let alone 4B.

Where populations of the former Soviet Republics are likely to be in 2040 versus 1989 is very interesting. Particularly Belarus (10.2M 1989 to ~8M in 2040) vs Azerbaijan (~7M 1989 to 10.3M in 2040), & Georgia (5.45M 1989 to 3.6M 2040) vs Tajikistan (5.1M…

Where populations of the former Soviet Republics are likely to be in 2040 versus 1989 is very interesting. Particularly Belarus (10.2M 1989 to ~8M in 2040) vs Azerbaijan (~7M 1989 to 10.3M in 2040), & Georgia (5.45M 1989 to 3.6M 2040) vs Tajikistan (5.1M 1989 to 13.5M 2040).

Urban areas face a dark irony: City culture tanked fertility rates, and now low fertility is breaking them.Falling births + remote work = collapsing tax bases.If cities don’t pivot to retaining families, they face ghost schools and fiscal ruin. Basically, around much of the rich world cities engineered a culture without children. Now, it’s killing these areas. Cities must change urban culture to make it easier for young families to put down roots to survive.   https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/family-retention-falling-birthrates-cities-urban-institute-says/825636/

Birthrate crisis to fundamentally change global finance.  JP Morgan declared 40-year era of cheap borrowing is dead. World physically running out of labor pools just as many governments abandon fiscal discipline.  As populations age interest rates face permanent upward pressure. The global demographic crisis will obviously upend a whole lot.  Aging populations are spiking pension & healthcare costs.  Defense, energy, & infrastructure spending are intensifying worldwide.  Labor pools are drying up.  Not great, invest accordingly. https://fortune.com/2026/07/24/demographic-dividend-ending-jp-morgan-interest-rates/

From 2026-2035, China will shed nearly 60 million people, losing the population of Italy in less than a decade. You cannot grow a domestic, consumer-driven retail market when the total target consumer base is shrinking by millions of citizens every year.https://rhg.com/research/chinas-demographic-future/

According to OpenDataBot in first half of 2026 there’s been only 73,292 births in Ukraine,while the number of deaths so far number 259,853. This is a significant 10%+ fall in births over the same period of 2025. Remember in 2025 fertility rate in Ukraine was no higher than 1.2. While many sources say Ukrainian TFR in 2025 was only 0.72 or so personally doubt this as the number of women aged 18-45 in the country was likely overcounted and more have emigrated than acknowledged in official data. 1.0-1.2 for 2025 seems more likely to me.

If China’s current sub 1.0 fertility rate becomes the baseline norm, six people will die for every single newborn in the country’s subsequent generations. China is effectively losing the sheer human mass required to sustain their domestic society & consumer economy… China has a very small window to turn this around. From everything I’ve seen teased there are no natalist measures in the pipeline that will dramatically alter this course. The limited data we have for 2026 so far seems to indicate it will be another suboptimal year.

For the 1st time in American history, U.S. birth rate for women aged 40–44 (at 12.7 per 1,000) has officially surpassed the teen birth rate ages 15–19 which is 12.6 per 1,000. In contrast to the highest birthing cohort (women aged 30-34) which is 93.7 per 1,000. Women aged 45-49 had a birth rate of just 1.1 per 1,000. Source CDC NVSS.

Laos is getting close to replacement & will likely be at or below it by 2030 along with Cambodia. Tiny East Timor will be the last one standing above replacement in Southeast Asia by 2030, & that is if they are very lucky. https://x.com/divideetimpera5/status/2076663191250092117

🇮🇷 🇮🇶 👶 Iranian & Iraqi births steadily converging because of the catastrophic fall in Iranian births.  Even at current level of ~2.8 fertility rate of Iraq is roughly double that of Iran.  Yemen also likely to have more births than Iran soon despite having less than half the population.

Across Latam a major sociological shift has gained traction already common across much of the developed world, labeled the "humanization of pets." Across cities like Santiago, Buenos Aires, and Mexico City, younger generations are systematically replacing children with pets within their household budgets and life plans due to economic uncertainty and shifting reproductive choices. https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/birth_rates_fall/